Category: Thinks

Thinks 88

On Opinion Polls: by Atanu Biswas. “Opinion polls often suffer from serious ‘non-response error’. Many people may be sceptical of polls, especially when their opinions are in the voter’s ‘wrong’ direction. In the US, response rates to telephone public opinion polls conducted by Pew Research Center have exhibited steady decline — a 9% response rate in 2016 to 6% in 2018, to 5% or less today. Poll predictions are bound to ignore the views of the remaining non-responsive 95%, while the respondents may not be a representative sample at all. And there is no guarantee that some respondents aren’t lying.”

Revealing the Real Picture Behind India’s Unemployment Problem: by Vivek Kaul.

How to speak in public: from Psyche Guides. “Think about the audience, think about why you’re talking, think about your audience’s happiness, practise.”

Thinks 87

21st-century consumers will change capitalism for the better: from The Economist. A special report on the future of shopping. “More accurate and voluminous data about shopping patterns are breaking down the decades-long relationship between mass consumption and mass production. In its place is a more varied world in which the shopper can decide whether to buy online or in store, whether to shop via platforms or from individual brands, and whether to accept targeted ads or not. The store will not die, but producers and consumers will have a more direct relationship with each other.”

Bangladesh at 50: by Nicholas Kristof (NYT). “Bangladesh may have once epitomized hopelessness, but it now has much to teach the world about how to engineer progress. What was Bangladesh’s secret? It was education and girls.”

The Lockdowns Weren’t Worth It: by Philippe Lemoine (WSJ). “There’s a reason no government has done a cost-benefit analysis: The policy would surely fail.”

Thinks 86

If Big Tech has our data, why are targeted ads so terrible?: from FT. A question I have also wondered often!

The transformation promised by an embrace of market capitalism: by Narain Batra. “Today, there are 348 PSEs with a total investment of over ₹16.4 trillion and more than a million employees, according to the Department of Public Enterprises. Privatizing them would open up space for the private sector to expand and innovate, as well as create huge investment opportunities for Indian and global players.”

Frederick Douglass in 1880: “No right was deemed by the fathers of the Government more sacred than the right of speech. It was in their eyes, as in the eyes of all thoughtful men, the great moral renovator of society and government.”

Thinks 85

A History of Microsoft Excel. “Anyone who has worked in finance or consulting grew up on it, learned to love it over thousands of hours of practice and improvement. Whether they realized it or not, they were becoming programmers, or at least no-code practitioners before the no-code movement took off. “Proficient in the Microsoft Office Suite” is so meaningless that it’s become a meme, but the ability to bend one specific Office program, Excel, to one’s will is a badge of honor. But the enduring, passionate user fervor for the product isn’t even its most unique attribute. Excel’s most lasting impact extends beyond the spreadsheet itself.”

Cash Is Turning Out to Be the Most Effective Welfare: by Noah Smith. “For too long people in need have been stereotyped as lazy and dependent. Cash payments give them the breathing room to chart a better life course.” India needs Dhan Vapasi.

The Roblox Microverse: by Ben Thompson.

Thinks 84

Consumers Frustrated With The Online Shopping Experience, Study Finds: from MediaPost. “Consumers are bothered by these challenges: website search, website navigation, finding information…The biggest pain points for retailers are: shopping cart abandonment, low marketing conversion rate, low repeat business and low average purchase.”

Frank Chodorov: “I have never met an advocate of government intervention who did not admit, inadvertently, his own capacity for commissariat functions. He always has a plan, to which others must submit, and his certainty that the plan will produce the contemplated results does not permit him to brook criticism. Always he is the fanatic. If you disagree with him it is not because you are in error; it is because you are sinful.” Via CafeHayek.

Reading: 2034: A Novel of the Next World War

Thinks 83

India Breaks the Privatization Taboo: by Sadanand Dhume. “Optimists believe Mr. Modi is poised to deliver the industrialization India has long sought…But Modi’s new reforms aren’t all pro-market, and they may lead to isolation and crony capitalism.”

On Prediction Markets: by Tyler Cowen. “Prediction markets let people “bet” on some feature of the economy, thereby creating a new financial derivative. A prediction market in gross domestic product, or perhaps in local rates of unemployment, could be a useful means of hedging risk. If you are afraid that GDP will fall, you could “short” GDP in a prediction market and thus protect your overall economic position, because your bet would pay out if GDP came in lower than expected.”

Product Feature Prioritization —How to Align on the Right List: by Bob Pennisi. “If you want a more efficient and reliable way to prioritize product features, start with a clear and defined set of customer needs.” More on Outcome-Driven Innovation.

Thinks 82

Price controls for vaccines? by Ajay Shah. “The path to reaching every small town and village runs through having no price controls.”

Minimum government: Commissions and omissions: by Shankkar Aiyar. “The quest to restructure the [Indian] Leviathan has flailed over decades…To paraphrase Parkinson, permissions and clearances expand to keep the behemoth employed. Peculiarly, the government is the policy maker, a player owning PSUs and the regulator in many sectors. World over, telecom, civil aviation, broadcasting and shipping are governed by independent regulators answerable to elected bodies.”

How the first review decides the fate of your product: By Thomas McKinlay. “A negative first online review creates a chain reaction of fewer sales, fewer reviews, and more negative reviews. The opposite happens if the first review is positive.”

Thinks 81

How to make a social safety net for the post-covid world: from The Economist. “Governments must remake the social contract for the 21st century…For years social spending has favoured the elderly and an outdated safety net. It should be rebuilt around active labour-market policies that use technology to help everyone from shopworkers who are victims of disruption to mothers whose skills have atrophied and those whose jobs are replaced by machines.”

Thomas Sowell: “When the government chooses between policy A and policy B, it is making a choice in which the personal interests of the decision-maker are involved. Rewards for both elected and appointed officials – whether in money or in kind – come from increasing the demand for their services. If policy A will achieve a certain result largely through the individual efforts of the citizens themselves, and policy B requires the presence, activity, and visibility of politicians, clearly it is to the politicians’ advantage to advocate policy B.” (via CafeHayek)

Thinks 80

The Fan Data Goldmine: “New tech that allows artists to interact with superfans — and turn their data into dollars — promises to open long-term revenue streams.”

The New Era of Social Media Isn’t About Feeds: by Will Oremus. “Products like Clubhouse and Twitter’s “Super Follows” offer a new kind of engagement…We’re starting to see a new crop of platforms that operate according to a different logic — a logic of loyalty, intentionality, and deliberate payment (whether of attention or money).”

How Belarus’s protesters staged a digital revolution: from FT. “When President Lukashenko cracked down, a media start-up using Telegram to challenge his autocratic regime stepped into the fray.”

Thinks 79

How citizen data led India’s covid battle: from Mint. “Through the pandemic, Indian journalists, scientists and citizens have had to battle against the Indian state for access to basic data, which is often easily available in most other parts of the world, including in resource constrained Latin American countries. With new virus variants now altering the course of both the pandemic and vaccine development, transparent data will only become ever more important in the pandemic’s second year. Will India change course at least now?”

Success beyond software and services: by Shyam Ponappa. “India dominates the world market in motorcycles. What will it take to replicate this success in other industries?”

Thomas Sowell: “The minimum wage law is very cleverly misnamed. The real minimum wage is zero – and that is what many inexperienced and low-skilled people receive as a result of legislation that makes it illegal to pay them what they are currently worth to an employer. Most economists have long recognized that minimum wage laws increase unemployment among the least skilled, least experienced, and minority workers. With a little experience, these workers are likely to be worth more. But they cannot move up the ladder if they can’t get on the ladder.”