Thinks 1899

Chris Roth: “If software moats are eroding, what still holds? Compute — physical infrastructure that’s hard to replicate. Human relationships — partnerships, contracts, brand recognition. Capital — cash in the bank to weather competition. Proprietary data — data that can’t be scraped or synthesized. Team — rare talent that competitors can’t easily poach. Exclusive rights — patents, trademarks, copyrights, regulatory licenses. Network effects — value that scales with users.”

NYTimes: “Companies are realizing they can no longer simply promote themselves to potential customers. They have to win over the robots, too…“There is a new influencer you need to reach, and it’s this A.I. model,” said Brian Stempeck, a co-founder of Evertune.”

Nicolas Bustamante: “The real threat isn’t the LLM itself. It’s a pincer movement that vertical software incumbents didn’t see coming. From below, hundreds of AI-native startups are entering every vertical. When building a credible financial data product required 200 engineers and $50M in data licensing, markets naturally consolidated to 3-4 players. When it requires 10 engineers and frontier model APIs, the market fragments violently. Competition goes from 3 to 300.”

SaaStr: “You Must Be AI Infrastructure — Not “AI-Enhanced SaaS”. The market is ruthlessly punishing companies that “added AI” to existing products. Salesforce (Agentforce), HubSpot (Breeze), Adobe (Firefly), Monday.com (AI blocks) — all down 30-50%+ even though these are real products with real adoption. The market doesn’t care. The winners — Palantir, Cloudflare, Snowflake — are AI infrastructure. They don’t add AI to a workflow tool. They are the infrastructure layer that AI runs on. Palantir is the operational AI decision layer. Snowflake is where the data that feeds AI lives. Cloudflare is the edge where AI inference executes. As SaaStr has been saying: Don’t build SaaS and add AI. Build AI and add SaaS economics.”

NeoMails: The Attention and Monetisation Surface Brands Already Own (Part 6)

The Magnet — Engineering the Reason to Open

If there is a single point of failure in NeoMails, it is the Magnet. Get it right, and everything else follows: the open, the habit, the engagement, the monetisation. Get it wrong — make it dull, repetitive, effortful, or irrelevant — and the entire architecture collapses, because the customer has no reason to open tomorrow.

This is worth sitting with. The Magnet does not represent the brand. It does not sell anything. It does not directly generate revenue. Its sole purpose is to make the email worth opening — independent of the brand’s agenda, independent of any offer, independent of any commercial event. The brand has to be comfortable building something that serves the customer first and speaks to them second.

That comfort is hard-won, because it requires a relinquishing of control that marketing culture is not accustomed to. A NeoMail with a great Magnet might be opened primarily because of a cricket prediction, or a word puzzle, or a piece of micro-fiction — not because of the brand. And that is precisely the point. The open is the first step. The relationship is what compounds over time.

The Magnet’s job is to make the email worth opening on days when the customer is not in the market for the brand’s product. Most days are those days. The Magnet is the bridge across the gap.

 Active Magnets

The interactive format — quiz, prediction, choice — is the most immediately engaging. It asks the customer to participate, and participation creates investment. When you answer a question, you are curious about whether you got it right. When you make a prediction, you want to see the outcome. This is basic human psychology: we pay more attention to things we are involved in than to things we merely observe. Active Magnets leverage this by making the customer a participant rather than a passive recipient.

The variety of active Magnet formats needs to grow continuously. Quiz and WePredict and ‘Hot or Not’ are a starting point. Mini-games, micro-surveys, community challenges, personalised recommendations that require a choice — each adds a different texture of engagement and prevents the staleness that kills any daily habit.

Passive Magnets

There is a version of the Magnet that demands nothing — and this category may prove equally important. A curated one-paragraph ‘today I learned’. A single line of striking poetry. A micro-story serial where each NeoMail advances the plot by a paragraph. A chart that tells a story. A fact that recalibrates your understanding of something familiar.

Passive Magnets matter for a reason that the interactive format can miss: habit requires low friction. If every NeoMail demands a tap, a choice, a moment of active engagement, the habit becomes effortful. Some days, the customer wants to receive rather than participate. Passive Magnets make the email worth opening on those days — and they open up the Magnet format to literary, journalistic, and cultural territory that interactive formats cannot easily occupy.

Continuity Across Magnets

The single most underexplored dimension of Magnet design is continuity. A Magnet designed as a standalone experience resets every day. A Magnet designed as part of a series creates anticipation. A prediction market where results are revealed three days later. A story that advances by one paragraph per email. A weekly trivia thread where the final score is revealed on Friday. These serial structures create the most powerful reason to open: not just curiosity about today’s content, but unresolved anticipation from a previous interaction.

The WePredict format already has this built in: you make a prediction, and you wait to see if you were right. That waiting creates a reason to return. The best Magnet designs will lean into this — using the passage of time, the accumulation of Mu, and the rhythm of daily delivery to make each NeoMail feel like the next chapter in a longer story the customer is genuinely invested in.

Thinks 1898

NYTimes: “Right now, 21st-century geopolitics seems like it’s defined by the struggle between America and China. But the major power with the world’s fastest growing economy and largest population isn’t China. It’s India…Its large and spreading diaspora gives it a unique cultural influence around the world, one that may only increase as other major powers grow old and people remain India’s most important export.” Amitav Acharya: “India is not going to have the industrial revolution like China had — that stage has passed. It’s not going to become the factory of the world like China has become. That window has closed. But the next stage of economic development, a combination of industrial and high technology services — India still needs to find that niche and still move off from exporting raw materials or textiles and the like.”

Allen Grubman: “When you walk away from negotiation, both sides should feel the same way—happy, but also a little sad that they didn’t get everything they wanted. That’s a success. If you walk away delighted that you got everything, the guy who got screwed will be waiting for the opportunity to get you back. Getting everything you want is the beginning of the end of the relationship.”

Paul Ford: “Is the software I’m making for myself on my phone as good as handcrafted, bespoke code? No. But it’s immediate and cheap. And the quantities, measured in lines of text, are large. It might fail a company’s quality test, but it would meet every deadline. That is what makes A.I. coding such a shock to the system.”

WSJ: “The publication of John O. McGinnis’s “Why Democracy Needs the Rich” comes at an opportune moment. A law professor at Northwestern University and former U.S. Justice Department official, Mr. McGinnis seeks to defend the ultrawealthy from the growing number of accusations leveled against them. Although incomplete, Mr. McGinnis’s argument deserves to be taken seriously. Who are the rich? If they’re defined by wealth, Mr. McGinnis would include people in the top 0.1% of asset-holders—$61 million and above—as “truly rich.” What matters to the author isn’t how much they are worth, but how free they are to express their views, take risks and support innovative activities.”

NeoMails: The Attention and Monetisation Surface Brands Already Own (Part 5)

The APU: The Wrapper That Changes Everything

Think about what a brand email looks like today. There is a header with the brand’s logo. A banner image. Some copy — a product recommendation, a sale announcement, a curated collection. A call-to-action button. A footer with the legal small print and an unsubscribe link.

That is the BrandBlock. It is what every brand already has. It is the relationship moment — the brand speaking directly to the customer — and in a NeoMail it retains exactly that function. It comes first, because the customer opened an email from Brand X and should meet Brand X immediately.

What NeoMails adds is the APU: the Attention Processing Unit. Not a replacement for the BrandBlock. A wrapper around it. An architecture of engagement, habit, and monetisation that the BrandBlock sits inside — beginning before the email is even opened, and ending with a live account of the customer’s attention history.

The APU has five components.

Mu in the Subject Line

The APU begins before the email is opened. The subject line carries the µ symbol and the customer’s current MuCount — their running balance of attention, visible in the inbox before they have tapped anything. This is the first signal that this email is different from every other email in their inbox: it arrives with a number that belongs to them, a record of their engagement, a reason to pay attention to what arrives next. The MuCount in the subject is a snapshot — accurate at the moment of send, a timestamp of where the customer stood when the email was dispatched.

The Magnet

The Magnet is the habit engine. It is the reason no NeoMail gets ignored — not because customers feel obligated, but because each Magnet is either an open question (a quiz, a prediction market) or a continuing story (a serial, a community outcome) that the customer is genuinely invested in. Interacting with the Magnet earns Mu. But the Magnet is also where Mu can be spent: burn Mu to personalise the quiz or unlock a harder quiz tier, to bet on the prediction market. This earn-and-burn loop is self-contained within the Magnet — the flywheel that keeps the habit turning. Spending Mu on a better Magnet experience motivates earning more Mu through tomorrow’s open.

The ActionAd

One per NeoMail. No exceptions. The ActionAd is the monetisation layer, but it operates by a different logic from any ad the customer has encountered before. It does not ask the customer to leave. It enables a single useful action — save your details for a lead, subscribe to a newsletter, book a slot, get a quote — inside the inbox, in one tap. Partners whose ActionAds appear are selected and approved by the brand; there is no open auction running inside someone’s email. The ActionAd is what makes ZeroCPM economics work: the send costs nothing to the brand because the ActionAd funds it. Monetisation that earns its place rather than demanding it.

Gameboard Status

After the Magnet and ActionAd, the Gameboard Status creates the forward pull. “Currently Live: Market Prediction. Coming Up Next: Quiz.” Two lines. But those two lines do something no single-brand email has ever done: they connect this email to the next one, and potentially to the NeoMails running across other brands in the customer’s inbox. The Status Bar is the cross-email continuity mechanism — it turns each NeoMail from a standalone send into a node in a larger, ongoing programme. The customer does not just close the email; they leave knowing what is coming next.

The Ledger

At the bottom sits the Ledger: the live MuCount, and behind a single tap, the full earn-burn history. Unlike the MuCount in the subject line — which is a snapshot taken at send time and cannot change — the Ledger is AMP-powered and fetches the customer’s real balance at the moment of open. If they earned Mu from another brand’s NeoMail since this one was sent, the Ledger already reflects it. It is a window into a running account, not a static receipt. The history behind the dropdown is not something most customers will check every day; it is there for the reassurance that it exists — a permanent, transparent record of attention given and value earned.

**

The reframe the APU makes possible is this: every brand already sends a BrandBlock. The BrandBlock is table stakes. The APU is what transforms a routine brand email into a daily destination — by wrapping the brand’s moment inside an architecture that gamifies the open, builds the habit, funds the send, connects forward to tomorrow, and keeps a live account of the relationship. The BrandBlock is what the brand says. The APU is what makes the customer come back to hear it.

Thinks 1897

Kai-Fu Lee: “In America you have OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI, each of which believes they’re the genius that will beat everyone else and win the Nobel Prize by solving the ultimate problem of AGI. But the Chinese approach is different. The approach is more like a study group, where one company publishes a model, and the other looks at and plays with it. Maybe even talks to the company about how they trained it. All the members of the study group are building open source and then sharing it. So the study groups are formed of very smart kids who are all funded by companies that still want to show profit every quarter. This is very different from the situation in the US, where companies do not care about returns. In China, companies are constrained in how much they can spend. Alibaba isn’t going to lose $10bn the next quarter. But OpenAI can. So, all these reasons cause the Chinese companies to behave the way they do with modest resources, learning and improving, working as a study group, as opposed to the American winner-take-all strategy.”

NYTimes: “If millions are turning to AI as therapists and friends, it is evidence of a great emptiness many people feel living in modern society. AI is filling needs that mostly shouldn’t exist in the first place if we were a healthy society. People (not talking about government) could willingly spend their energies providing better ways to meet each other’s emotional needs and to fill these voids, yet our energies are focused much more on building and being users of advanced technologies. It’s a backward priority.”

Tyler Cowen: “My core model is both simple and depressing. Fertility rates have declined around the world because birth control technologies became much better and easier to use. And people — women in particular — just do not want that many kids…A lot of women, once they face the realities of the stress and trying to make ends meet, want only one kid. You end up with a large number of one kid families, some people who never marry/procreate at all, and a modest percentage of families with 2-4 kids. There are also plenty of cases cases where the guy leaves, self-destructs, or never marries, after siring a single child with a woman. That gives you the fertility rates we are seeing, albeit with cultural and economic variation.”

WSJ: “Yale University finance professor James Choi recently developed a formula that recommends an asset allocation based in part on your age, income, savings and risk tolerance…In many scenarios, the formula recommends a more aggressive, stock-heavy portfolio than other popular guidelines. It also incorporates more of people’s financial circumstances than common rules of thumb for equity allocation, such as the classic 60/40 division of stocks and bonds or subtracting your age from 100. Many simply outsource the decision to a target-date fund based on the year they plan to retire.”

NeoMails: The Attention and Monetisation Surface Brands Already Own (Part 4)

The Third Class of Email

Email has had, for its entire commercial history, exactly two modes of operation.

The first is transactional: utility emails sent because something happened. A receipt arrived. A shipment moved. An OTP was requested. A password needed resetting. These emails are opened because they carry information the recipient is actively looking for. They are not marketing; they are infrastructure.

The second is promotional: persuasion emails sent because the brand needs something. A sale is on. A product launched. A cart was abandoned. A customer has not purchased in 30 days. These emails are opened — when they are opened — because the offer is compelling enough to override the friction of engagement. They are marketing in its most traditional sense: interruption dressed in personalisation.

What has never existed, at any meaningful scale, is a third class: relationship emails sent because the customer wants to open them. Not because they need information, and not because they are tempted by an offer — but because the email itself delivers something genuinely worth their time, independent of any transaction.

NeoMails are relationship emails — built for chosen attention, not forced attention.

The distinction sounds small. It is enormous. When you build for the first two classes of email, you optimise for the sender’s agenda. You ask: what do we need the customer to know, feel, or do? When you build for the third class, you optimise for the recipient’s experience. You ask: why would a customer choose to spend 60 seconds here, today, when they could spend those 60 seconds anywhere?

This shift in design orientation changes everything downstream. The subject line is no longer about urgency or benefit — it is about curiosity and anticipation. The open is no longer forced by FOMO — it is chosen because the email has earned a place in daily routine. The engagement is not extracted through clever persuasion — it is given freely because the experience is worth giving attention to.

The closest analogy in media history is not another email product. It is what Instagram did to photography. Instagram did not make cameras better. It reimagined the format, the rhythm, and the relationship between creator and audience. It made sharing photographs a daily habit, not an occasional event. It created a new category by solving a different problem: not ‘how do we take better pictures?’ but ‘how do we make sharing pictures feel effortless and social and worth doing every day?’

NeoMails ask the same kind of question about email. Not ‘how do we write better subject lines?’ but ‘how do we make opening an email feel like the start of something worth experiencing?’ The answer requires building a new primitive — not a better campaign tool, but a new category of inbox experience entirely.

Why now? Because three things have converged that were not true five years ago. AMP has made genuine interactivity inside the inbox technically feasible. AI has made personalised content generation at scale economically viable. And the attention crisis — driven by platform over-saturation and AI-generated noise — has made owned, permissioned channels more valuable than at any previous point in the history of digital marketing. The third class of email has always been theoretically possible. It is now practically buildable.

The third class of email does not yet have an established form. NeoMails are the proposal for what it looks like: interactive, incentivised, individualised, and sent daily — not because the brand needs to say something, but because the customer has come to expect something worth their time.

That expectation, once created and sustained, is the foundation of everything that follows.

Thinks 1896

NYTimes: “For top athletes, grappling with failure is a job requirement, said David Fletcher, a professor of human performance and health at Loughborough University in Britain. A key difference between the best athletes and the rest of us is that they see challenges as opportunities for growth rather than threats, he said. While being naturally optimistic or conscientious helps, researchers say that to some extent, resilience can be learned. What we might perceive as mental Teflon in top athletes is also the result of a lifetime of practice…Just as psychologists have athletes visualize their wins, they also ask them to imagine all the things that could go wrong, and how they’ll respond, said Jessica Bartley, senior director of psychological services for the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee.”

Manu Joseph: “Talking to strangers takes effort and a tolerance for awkwardness. But although small talk can be dull, it could be quite interesting if we take the risk of appearing somewhat unsophisticated. Here are some tips.”

FT: “Protein is an essential part of a balanced diet, helping to grow, strengthen and repair muscle. Until recently, US dietary guidelines recommended about 46 grammes a day for women and 56 for men.  But eating more protein is in vogue thanks to popular diets, the power of social media influencers and the advent of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which can lead to muscle loss as people eat smaller portions.”

WSJ: “Some of the most successful restaurant turnarounds have come from winning a new time of day. Fixed costs like rent and utilities don’t change, so boosting traffic during slow hours is far more profitable than cramming more customers into already-busy shifts. McDonald’s famously revolutionized fast-food economics by adding breakfast. This move featured such items as the Egg McMuffin and coffee, which have a much higher margin than beef. Breakfast became so popular that when the company made it an all-day staple, growth exploded. Starbucks is now trying the inverse: turning itself into a credible all-day snack-and-beverage business.”

NeoMails: The Attention and Monetisation Surface Brands Already Own (Part 3)

Why the Inbox Is the Next Attention Surface

Every era of the internet has had a dominant attention surface, and every dominant attention surface has attracted the same gravitational force: advertising.

The web became a search surface, and ads became a tax on intent. Social media became a feed surface, and ads became a tax on identity. Mobile became a notification surface, and ads became a tax on time. In each case, the surface existed first — people were already there, for reasons that had nothing to do with advertising — and monetisation followed attention. The surface came first. The business model was second.

The next surface is hiding in plain sight. The inbox is the only channel that is simultaneously personal (tied to an individual, not a device or a cookie), habitual (people check it daily, often multiple times), portable (it survives app deletions and platform migrations), universal (it works across every device, every market, every demographic), and deterministic (every address maps to a stable identity anchor — more deterministic than cookies or device IDs).

Every other major ad surface had to build its identity graph from scratch — through cookies, device fingerprinting, login walls. The inbox already has one. It came with the channel. The identity is the address.

And yet, as an attention surface, the inbox has been almost entirely neglected. Brands use it like a brochure rack. Promotions, announcements, ‘last chance’ urgency, abandoned cart reminders. The inbox became a message warehouse — and customers learned, correctly, that most of what arrives there is not worth their time. Open rates fell. Engagement decayed. The brochure rack gathered dust.

But here is what brands misread: the inbox did not fail them. They failed the inbox. They confused delivery with relationship, reach with engagement, list size with attention. The surface is still there. The identity graph is still there. The direct, algorithm-free, permissioned connection is still there. What has been missing is a reason to open — not because of a sale, not because of urgency, but because the email itself is worth something.

This is the precise gap NeoMails are designed to fill. The inbox is not a leaflet stand. It is a daily destination that has been waiting, for two decades, for someone to build a product worthy of it.

The logic is simple: find where genuine, habitual human attention concentrates, and build the tools to earn it, hold it, and eventually monetise it without destroying it. Search, social, and notifications have all followed this path. Email has not — because the tools to make email genuinely worth opening, at scale, did not exist until AMP made interactive, in-inbox experiences technically feasible.

They do now. And the timing matters. As AI floods every digital channel with generated content, as social feeds become indistinguishable from synthetic noise, as notification fatigue reaches its ceiling, the inbox — personal, permissioned, identity-linked — becomes more valuable, not less. The scarcity of genuine human attention makes the inbox’s structural advantages more significant with every passing quarter.

The surface is ready. The moment is right.

Thinks 1895

SaaStr: “The 2026 SaaS crash is real. But it’s not because AI agents are going to replace Salesforce next quarter. It’s because: AI is eating the budget, growth has been declining for three years, [and] the market finally stopped pretending otherwise.”

FT: “For over a decade, economists have grappled with a modern iteration of the Solow Paradox: we have seen artificial intelligence everywhere except in the productivity statistics. Sceptics argue that the reason for this is that modern innovation in machine learning systems and now generative AI pale in comparison to the great inventions of the past. However, the latest benchmark revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest the statistical fog may finally be lifting. Data released [recently] offers a striking corrective to the narrative that AI has yet to have an impact on the US economy as a whole. While initial reports suggested a year of steady labour expansion in the US, the new figures reveal that total payroll growth was revised downward by approximately 403,000 jobs. Crucially, this downward revision occurred while real GDP remained robust, including a 3.7 per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter. This decoupling — maintaining high output with significantly lower labour input — is the hallmark of productivity growth.”

Aditya Puri: Our long-term plan was always focused on our customers’ needs, on business demands, and on what our competitors were doing. The issue for us was always clear: We were going to follow our plan. If a short-term opportunity came up, we analyzed the risk. We decided that, at any point, 25 percent of the bank’s business had to come from areas we weren’t already in. For example, once corporate lending was established, 25 percent had to come from SMEs. You’ve got to analyze the risks: Have you priced properly for it? What is the probability of default? What’s the cost-to-revenue ratio? What’s the total portfolio going to be? Those were always in mind. If a short-term opportunity would compromise any of those, I’d let it go. Frankly, most of the time, unless it was very clear-cut, we would pass. Acquisitions were a different animal, but they followed the same principle. When we were considering Times Bank [in 2000], we were accretive from day one—we saw the customers, the branches, the capital they had, and the price made sense to us. The same applied to our other acquisitions. Once you acquire a business, you need to be sure you’re achieving what you set out to do. They had to fit into our systems and follow our culture, including our values of trust, transparency, and customer focus.”

FT: ““The simplest way to think about Claude Code is that it is a chatbot that can do stuff,” said Guillaume Princen, Anthropic’s head of digital native businesses. “What Claude Code was for developers, Cowork is for knowledge workers,” he added.”

NeoMails: The Attention and Monetisation Surface Brands Already Own (Part 2)

The Two Numbers That Tell the Truth

There is a version of email marketing that looks healthy on a dashboard and is dying in reality. To see the gap between the two, you need to ignore the vanity metrics and look at two numbers that most marketing teams have never calculated.

The first is Click Retention Rate, or CRR. Take everyone who clicked on your emails in one quarter. Ask: what percentage of them clicked again in the next quarter? Not opened — clicked. Demonstrated engagement, not passive receipt. The median answer, across brands of all sizes, is roughly 20%. Of every hundred customers who were genuinely engaged with your email in Q1, eighty have drifted away by Q2. Not unsubscribed. Not complained. Simply gone quiet.

The list stays the same size. The relationship quietly collapses. This is not a deliverability failure. It is an attention failure — and it happens every quarter, invisibly, at scale.

The second number is Real Reach. What percentage of your email list has actually engaged — opened — in the past 90 days? In a typical brand database, the answer is 10-20%. Your list may say five million people. Your genuinely responsive audience is half a million, perhaps less. Everything else is noise pretending to be reach.

These two numbers together describe the same underlying phenomenon: attention decay. It is not dramatic. It does not show up as a spike in unsubscribes or a surge in spam complaints. It is quiet, gradual, and cumulative. Every quarter, a brand loses most of its engaged audience to silence. Every quarter, it fails to notice because the list size metric looks fine.

Attention is not a soft metric. It is the input to everything. Conversion depends on attention. Repeat purchases depend on attention. Brand preference depends on attention. Even new customer acquisition efficiency depends on attention, because the neglect that allows attention to decay is the same neglect that eventually forces a brand to pay a platform to reacquire the customer.

When we talk about AdWaste — the REACQ — this is its origin. Across analyses of 250+ brand databases, a consistent finding emerges: 60 to 80 percent of what brands count as ‘new customer acquisitions’ are, in fact, reacquisitions — customers who were once in the owned database, drifted away through neglect, and are being bought back from Google or Meta at full market price.

The Attention Decay Cycle runs like clockwork. A customer is acquired at cost — typically Rs. 50–100 in India, considerably more in Western markets. They engage for 60 to 90 days. Attention fades. The brand sends more emails; the customer opens fewer. Eventually the brand suppresses them or ignores them entirely. Then, quietly, the performance marketing budget allocates spend to ‘reactivation campaigns’ through paid channels — and the cycle restarts.

CRR and Real Reach are truth-serum metrics. They reveal what is actually happening inside the database, beneath the surface of list size and send volume. Any brand willing to calculate them will find the same uncomfortable answer: the database is leaking attention at an industrial scale, and nobody has built a systematic tool to stop it.

NeoMails are that tool.