Thinks 2016

NYTimes on LinkedIn: “Since 2020 it has doubled its membership to over 1.3 billion users, and has raised its revenue to more than $19 billion annually, the site said. Video content is growing on the site, and 18- to 29-year-olds are its fastest growing demographic. “Few places are structured around the ‘official life story’ the way that LinkedIn is,” said Bernie Hogan, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute, adding that the site is a “welcome environment” for people who are highly focused on their careers.”

Arvind Narayanan: “As AI capabilities improve, the kinds of decisions that can be delegated to AI increase over time. But this does not make the “decide” layer thinner — once a decision can be delegated to AI, it is no longer a source of competitive advantage, and the value of human decision-making migrates upward. Software increases in complexity over time, so there is no ceiling to this process. At the other end of the sandwich, human teams need to be accountable for what they deliver. It is possible that some day in the future teams will ship mission-critical code without fully testing and understanding it, but today’s AI is so unreliable that such haphazard practices would represent an existential threat to software teams and their customers.”

WSJ: “Nvidia is No. 1 in The Wall Street Journal’s inaugural ranking of Best Companies for the Future, topping a list heavy on tech stalwarts as artificial intelligence reshapes business. The chip maker is joined in the top five by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Cisco Systems, a group largely propelled by strong scores for innovation, financial strength and AI readiness—a measure of how prepared a company is for an AI-centric future, as reflected in its operations, its investments and its people. The ranking seeks to evaluate how well companies in the S&P 500 are doing on measures intended to match up with future success.”

FT: “Are we at the start of a new investment super-cycle? AI, clean energy and defence spending are reinforcing each other, amplifying potential spend.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 3)

The Architecture

The architecture is that the four primitives apply unequally.

The obvious mistake would be to apply all four primitives to all three formats — to make every email interactive, personalised, gamified, and monetised at once. That does not produce a living email. It produces clutter: the inbox equivalent of a webpage with too much on it, where four competing mechanics drown the one thing the recipient actually came for.

The architecture is the opposite of “everything everywhere.” Each primitive has a natural home in the Sell–Notify–Relate triad, and the discipline is to match the primitive to the recipient’s reason for opening that specific email. Get the matching right and the email feels alive. Get it wrong — a game inside a delivery receipt, a third-party ad inside a bank statement — and it feels like noise, or worse, like a breach of trust.

The four primitives applied across Sell, Notify, and Relate. Relate is the only surface lit across all four.

Sell becomes interactive and personal.

The long promotional poster becomes a few interactive decision blocks. AI composes the hero and the recommendations for the individual; AMP lets the recipient browse, pick, configure, and add to cart inside the inbox. This is the surface where AI and AMP earn the most, because the recipient’s reason for opening — to consider buying — is served directly by interactivity and personalisation.

ActionAds, though, are restricted here by the same doctrine that governs the inventory. A Sell email is already an advertisement, so open third-party demand inside it puts an ad inside an ad — diluting the sender’s own campaign and signalling that the sender does not value the recipient’s attention. Only first-party cross-sell and cooperative recovery are permitted. Atomic Rewards fit well as a conversion and preference-capture mechanic. Sell gets AI and AMP heavily, ActionAds only first-party.

Notify becomes live.

The transactional email is the most constrained surface and the one to touch most carefully. Here, AMP real-time-on-open is the single best use of the primitive in the entire triad. A delivery email that shows live tracking when opened; a booking that shows current status; a statement that shows the latest balance. The recipient already wants exactly that information, so live-on-open turns a stale receipt into a useful instrument rather than an intrusion.

The other three primitives are deliberately restrained here. ActionAds belong on a transactional surface only as narrow, service-adjacent exceptions — and never on legally protected transactional content, where adding promotional material can reclassify the email as commercial under CAN-SPAM and equivalent regimes. Rewards appear almost never. And personalisation in Notify means accuracy and timeliness, not creative variation. Notify gets AMP heavily, and everything else lightly.

Relate becomes the habit — and it is the real prize.

Relate is the surface the four primitives were made for, and the only one where all four combine without conflict. AMP makes it interactive. AI makes each one individual. Atomic Rewards make it a daily habit worth returning to. And ActionAds are fully available — because Relate content is not itself a sales pitch, it is the one SNR surface where open third-party demand is doctrinally clean, and where the funding layer makes the daily send sustainable.

This is the crucial distinction. Notify and Sell are upgrades to formats that already exist — better versions of the receipt and the promotion. Relate is a creation — the surface that does not exist today, brought into being by the four primitives operating at once. It is the longest period in any customer relationship and the one in which, today, brands send nothing. That is why Relate is the prize, not the afterthought — it is the one surface the architecture does not merely improve but invents.

Thinks 2015

NYTimes: “China has been making and installing factory robots at a pace unmatched by any other country. In 2024, more than two million robots were operating in Chinese factories, and another 300,000 were installed — more than in the rest of the world combined. Industrial robot installations declined in each of the next largest markets: Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany.”

WSJ: “Communications professionals, previously relegated to the periphery, are now front and center in the C-suite, partly emboldened by CEOs’ fears that even the smallest misstep can swiftly balloon into a corporate disaster. The bleeding together of investor memos, advertising copy, press releases, company social-media accounts and most recently large language model results has sent business leaders scrambling to better control the corporate narrative at the very top. Nearly half of chief communications officers surveyed in 2025 said they report directly to their company’s CEO, up from 40% in 2023 and 37% in 2015, according to research from executive recruiter and consulting firm Korn Ferry.”

Business Standard: “For decades, software development was governed by rigid, linear frameworks. From the traditional Waterfall model’s strict sequence of specification docs and static wireframes to iterative feedback loops, the core engineering process has always relied on step-by-step human execution.  Now, that pipeline is being disrupted. By writing millions of lines of code and compressing design, development and testing into a single fluid operation, autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agents are not just accelerating production — they are permanently dismantling the technology industry’s foundational software development lifecycle.” 

Tavleen Singh: “The problem in India is not unemployment but unemployability.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 2)

The Four Primitives

AMP: from frozen artefact to live surface.

AMP for Email lets the email become stateful and actionable. Instead of clicking out to do anything, the recipient can answer, choose, browse, configure, book, and complete actions inside the inbox. And — the part that matters most — the email can update on open, showing live status, live price, or live availability at the moment of reading rather than the moment of sending.

This changes what an email fundamentally is. It stops being a message about something and becomes a surface you act on. AMP is the foundation primitive, because the other three have far less to work with on a static page. There is little point personalising, funding, or rewarding a document that the recipient cannot do anything with.

AI: from segment to N=1.

Personalisation in email has meant, for years, a first name in the subject line and a product grid loosely tied to a segment. AI changes the unit of personalisation from the segment to the individual. Every block — the hero, the recommendation, the explanation, the next-best-action, the timing, the tone — can be composed for one recipient rather than templated for a cohort.

The email stops being a campaign sent to many and becomes a composed experience assembled for one. This is where BrandTwins and the Context Graph do the work. The BrandTwin decides what each customer should see; the Context Graph carries the memory of what they have opened, ignored, purchased, and acted on. AI without that memory is just faster templating. AI with it is genuine N=1.

ActionAds: from cost centre to funded surface.

Historically, a brand pays to send email and hopes to earn it back through downstream conversion. ActionAds invert that arrangement: revenue can be earned inside the email itself. This matters most for the format that has no other funding model.

A relationship email rarely has immediate commerce ROI. So without a way to fund it, brands will not send it consistently — which is precisely why Relate barely exists today. ActionAds are therefore not just another feature; for Relate, they are the precondition. They make a regular, non-selling send economically sustainable, and economic sustainability is what allows the surface to exist at all. A Relate email that costs money every day and earns nothing will be cut the first time a budget is reviewed. One that funds itself survives.

Atomic Rewards: from occasional opens to habit.

Information alone does not create a habit. People need a reason to open repeatedly, and Atomic Rewards supply the missing behavioural layer. Small, frequent rewards tied to a genuine action — Mu, streaks, progress, status, unlocks — convert email from sporadic communication into ritual.

The discipline is that the rewards must be small, frequent, and earned: an open streak, a completed poll, a preference set, a prediction made. A reward given for nothing teaches nothing. A reward earned for a small action builds a loop. Atomic Rewards turn the recipient from someone a brand pushes messages at into someone who participates.

Thinks 2014

Ethan Mollick: “Computer programming is now offering a really good view of this kind of thing. It used to be that being a coder was writing good code on a regular basis. Now suddenly in the course of a few months, it becomes about managing engineering tasks. So I think you’re going to see other shifts in what people’s jobs are expected to be.”

WSJ: “[Some] workers..have embraced “microshifting,” or carving their day into short chunks of work, with intentional breaks for family time or personal replenishment. While employees who work from home have long squeezed personal business into the workday—with or without the boss’s blessing—more are now openly working at the times when they are most productive, often in segments of several hours, and some companies are encouraging it.”

: “As technology levels the field between stronger and weaker nations, old-fashioned wars of conquest might no longer be possible.”

Mint: “Simply put: being an outsider is the primary virtue of the outsider; they win because of it, not despite it. Outsiders are untainted by the problems of an existing system that is often perceived to be corrupt, elitist and indifferent to the challenges facing ordinary people. Established political parties are frequently seen—regardless of ideological orientation—as machines run by hypocritical and self-dealing careerists. An outsider is not beholden to these vested interests, can sweep out the corrupt and inject new ideas and energy into a predictable process that only serves the interests of the powerful. The outsider is also seen as ‘self-made’ in the sense that he has been successful in some field other than politics (such as business, law or entertainment) and has name recognition from that success.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 1)

The inventory essay named where the attention is. This one rebuilds what runs on the surface. AMP, AI, ActionAds, and Atomic Rewards can turn static messages into living, personalised, self-funding surfaces.

The Frozen Template

Email formats froze more than a decade ago, while every other consumer surface became interactive, live, and personalised. The result is three broken formats. The Sell email is a long discount poster. The Notify email is a dry, matter-of-fact alert. The Relate email — the regular, non-selling rhythm that would actually build a relationship — mostly does not exist.

Four developments can rebuild all three. AMP brings interactivity and live updates on open. AI brings personalisation down to the individual. ActionAds bring a funding layer. Atomic Rewards bring a habit layer.

The architecture is not “apply four technologies to email.” It is that the four apply unequally across Sell, Notify, and Relate — and that matching each primitive to the recipient’s reason for opening is what separates a living email from inbox clutter.

This essay is the sequel to the inventory piece. That one named the six surfaces of the inbox — where the attention is. This one rebuilds the unit that runs on those surfaces — the email itself.

**

Every digital surface became alive — except the email.

Over the last fifteen years, the feed learned to refresh, stories learned to expire and update, the app learned to respond to a tap in place. Every consumer surface became interactive, live, and personalised. Email did not move.

The email you receive today works almost exactly as it did in 2010. It is a static document, assembled once at the moment of sending, that you read and then click out of to do anything at all. Want to buy the thing it shows you? Click out to a website. Want to check the status it mentions? Click out to an app. Want to answer its question? Click out to a form. The email itself does nothing; it is a trigger that sends you elsewhere.

It is the only major digital surface that is still, fundamentally, a printed page delivered electronically. Every other surface closed the loop between seeing and doing. The inbox is the last place where the two are still separated by a click that leaves.

Three formats, each broken in its own way.

Brands send email in three modes — Sell, Notify, Relate (SNR) — and each has decayed in a different direction. The Sell email became a long promotional poster: a stack of images, heavy on discounts, low on trust, opened by fewer people every year. The Notify email became a dry, matter-of-fact alert: useful, but emotionally empty and economically inert — a receipt that asks nothing and offers nothing beyond the bare fact it confirms.

And the Relate email — the regular, non-selling rhythm that would actually maintain a relationship between purchases — mostly does not exist. Most brands have only two of the three. They sell, and they notify. In the long stretch between those two moments, they go silent. A relationship that consists only of being sold to and being notified is not a relationship. It is a series of interruptions.

Staticness, not deliverability, is the channel’s decline.

The industry has spent fifteen years optimising the wrong variable. Deliverability, list hygiene, send-time optimisation, subject-line testing — all of it treats the email as a fixed object to be delivered more efficiently to more inboxes. None of it asks whether the object itself is worth opening once it arrives.

The decline of email as an attention channel is not a delivery problem. It is a format problem. The thing being delivered has not changed in a decade, while everything competing for the same attention has. The static template is obsolete — and no amount of delivery optimisation fixes an artefact that no longer earns the open. The format is the bottleneck, and the format is what needs rebuilding.

Thinks 2013

FT: “Today, quantum computers are no longer just found in research laboratories as companies explore the technology’s commercial possibilities. Industry observers estimate there are scores of quantum computing systems in the world, a number forecast by the consultant McKinsey to rise to around 5,000 by 2030…As the new machines begin to indicate they can outperform conventional computers in niche areas — what the industry dubs “quantum advantage” — the risk of dismissing the technology’s importance is growing. Organisations are readying themselves for the prospect of Q-Day — the predicted moment when quantum computers are capable of breaking the cryptographic methods on which modern societies rely.”

WSJ: “Oura and Whoop do have advantages. Rather than selling mass-market step counters, they market premium products that synthesize biometrics like heart rate variability and skin temperature into actionable outputs: early illness warnings, recovery scores and training recommendations. Both benefit from sticky subscription revenue and, notably, lack screens. That positions them both as companions to an Apple Watch or as alternatives for users who don’t want yet another screen to look at.”

Mint: “A major reason why I consider small chat an art is that many leaders in the corporate sector seem much too shy. They are trained to face the wrath of shareholders and a stern board but perhaps feel self-conscious if they spot a group of executives in the corridor. While walking past without pausing to chat may be tempting, it could appear rude. Perhaps they fear letting out top-level confidential information. Or maybe they do not see it worthy of their time, which may explain the hems and haws that precede an excuse to slip away. Lost opportunities only pile up this way. The art of small talk, which diplomats and dignitaries have mastered, must get its due credit in the corporate world as well. This form of engagement is an important part of the learning curve of leadership. Even a tiny exchange could have a powerful impact.”

Sarah Guo: “As Gabe Pereyra says, real automation isn’t only the model getting better. It’s the product, the model, the workflow, and the firm moving together, and three of those four move at the speed of an organization. Moving people is the part no benchmark touches: getting a skeptical partner to change how she runs her matters, holding a team together through a rebuild. It’s why, when we hire a CEO, the ability to deal with people weighs at least as much as the analytical horsepower, and a smarter model doesn’t change that weighting. The feedback is ambiguous, the horizon is years, and the trust belongs to a person. Every company I know has every engineer on frontier coding models, and not one has changed its eng org at anything close to that speed. Adoption took a quarter, and what a magical quarter of token growth it was! But the rebuild is taking years…What I’d bet on is the direction: intelligence keeps getting cheaper, and value keeps sliding toward the few places a model can’t reach. The untrainable is value with history.”

Thinks 2012

Ruchir Sharma: “America’s profit machine seems extraordinary by historical and global standards. But look closer, and cracks appear. Rising government deficits explain a surprising share of recent US earnings growth. Moreover, the “profitless” dotcom era is a myth. Earnings growth is not dramatically stronger today than it was in the late 1990s. Since then, speculative excess has moved into private markets, making the public markets and the economy look more robust than they really are. In short, this expansion is more dependent on government and the earnings story is less exceptional than investors realise. Overall corporate earnings have risen from 7 per cent of GDP in the late 1990s to 11 per cent today. The dynamism of American business has played a role, but so have tax cuts and government spending. Lately the US deficit has risen to more than 6 per cent of GDP and a deficit that high reflects a large transfer of income to households and corporations.”

CNBC: “There are 857 U.S. startups valued at $1 billion or more, the threshold for being deemed a “unicorn” company, according to PitchBook data. But nearly half of that group hadn’t raised fresh funding in the last three years as of the end 2025, making many of those valuations stale, according to the private markets data firm. Startups that last raised in 2021 were worth 68% less on average at the end of last year, while those that last raised in 2022 saw a 52% decline, according to Pitchbook’s own valuation estimates. As a result, more than 220 companies that had reached billion-dollar valuations in the venture boom were deemed fallen unicorns, according to PitchBook, which provided a list of the companies exclusively to CNBC.”

NYTimes: “The reading crisis is real. But we don’t need new inventions to build a reading city. Exempt books from sales taxes the way we exempt prescription medicine. Invest in library collections and reduce wait lists for books. Open nonprofit and hybrid bookstores when the market alone cannot sustain them. Build on the models that already work: reading in laundromats; libraries in transit systems; books in barbershops, classrooms, homes and pediatric offices.”

TheMaxSource: “Performance marketing is a faucet. Turn it on, water flows. Turn it off, it stops. Growth marketing is a well. It takes longer to dig, but once it’s there, the water costs almost nothing to draw. B2B companies need both. What kills them is running the faucet before the well is dug — or digging a well indefinitely while dying of thirst.”

The Intent You Rent Back (Part 9)

Arun and Maya.

Arun bought his first bag of coffee from Kettl on a Sunday in March, after an ad found him while he was reading about pour-over technique. The beans were good. The unboxing was lovely. He got an order confirmation, a “how did we do?” note three days later, and then, over the following weeks, a steady drip of promotions — 15% off, a new roast, a flash sale. He opened the first two. After that he let them pile up unread. Nothing was wrong. He simply had coffee, a busy job, and an inbox that asked for nothing back.

To Kettl’s systems, Arun was now fading. Sixty days, no opens. The CRM moved him quietly from “engaged” towards “lapsed.”

But Arun had not lapsed. Around day seventy-five the bag ran low, and one morning, standing in his kitchen, he thought: I should reorder. He did not open Kettl’s last email to do it. He typed “best filter coffee” into Google. He scrolled Instagram and saw two rival roasters. He read a comparison on a coffee blog. For about a week, Arun was the most valuable thing in his category — a proven buyer, back in the market, ready to spend.

None of that week happened anywhere Kettl could see. His intent had left the building. It was loud on Google, on social, on a marketplace, and silent in the one place Maya was looking.

Maya is Kettl’s CMO, and she is good at her job. On her dashboard, Arun was an inactive customer: no opens, no clicks, sixty-plus days quiet. Her playbook had two moves for that. The first was a win-back email with a discount, which Arun would not open, because he had stopped opening. The second was the one that worked: load the lapsed list into Meta and Google, and bid. A few days later an ad found Arun mid-search. He clicked, he reordered, and Maya’s report logged a tidy paid conversion. Performance marketing, doing its job.

What the report did not say was that Maya had just paid a thirty-per-cent premium to win back a customer she already owned. She had Arun’s name, his email, his order history, the date of his last bag, and a fair guess at when the next one would run empty. She handed all of that context to the auction and bought back a thin, anonymous slice of it — a probable stranger who was probably Arun. She booked it as a win. It was a tax, and she was paying it on her own customer.

The change, when it came, was not a new tool. It was a different question. Maya stopped asking her team how to improve ROAS on the win-back campaign and asked instead: why are we paying ROAS to win Arun back at all? He was never lost. He went quiet in her channels and stayed loud in the market, and she had simply not been watching the right signal.

So she rebuilt the order of things. First, she gave Arun a reason to keep the inbox open — not a sale, but a short, useful note every couple of weeks: a brewing tip, a single-origin story, a small thing worth thirty seconds. Attention earned, not rented. Second, she let the brand do the arithmetic it already could: Arun’s bag lasts about seventy-five days, so on day sixty-five Kettl reached him first, with a quiet “running low?” before he ever thought to Google. And for the customers who had gone fully dark, where no owned message landed, she found a way to reach them through a trusted partner’s surface before falling back to the auction. She had, without using the words, rebuilt the order from the ground up — own the attention, predict the moment, share through a partner, and rent from adtech only what was truly left.

The next cycle, Arun did not go searching. The reorder nudge arrived the week he started thinking about it, from a brand whose emails he had, lately, started opening again. He reordered in two taps. It cost Kettl almost nothing.

Maya’s dashboard changed too. It stopped showing her lapsed customers after the revenue had already stopped, and started showing her attention slipping while there was still time to do something cheap about it. She could see the drift now — the early fade, weeks before the gap — which is the only window in which keeping a customer costs less than buying him back.

Arun never knew any of this. He just felt, vaguely, that his coffee brand had got better at turning up when he needed it. Which was the point. He had always been Maya’s customer. She had simply stopped renting back the one thing she had owned all along: his attention, and the intent it carried.