Thinks 2018

Foreign Affairs: “Because quantum computing has the potential to crack the encryption most broadly used by governments and individuals alike, the threat that it poses to national security is difficult to overstate. The cryptography that secures much of the Internet today relies on the difficulty that conventional computers have solving certain math problems, such as factoring very large numbers. Quantum computers, however, are expected to perform some of these computations far more efficiently, enabling attackers to break the codes and seize sensitive data. No such machines exist yet, and it is difficult to predict when they might come online. But recent advances suggest that a quantum computer could break at least some forms of commonly used cryptography within the next few years. More important, rivals of the United States are not waiting around for a quantum computer to materialize. China and Russia have already collected encrypted U.S. secrets, betting that some of the information will still be relevant once they have the tools to decrypt it.”

NYTimes: “Humanizers rewrite A.I.-produced text to make it sound less robotic, formulaic and trite. Autotypers slowly drip words and sentences into documents, making it appear as if papers were typed at a human pace when in fact, they were produced by A.I. They even fabricate typos, deletions and revisions. Both tools can help students evade software designed to detect A.I. Colleges and K-12 schools are trying to keep up, with A.I. detection becoming a significant expense. But educators attempting to restrict the technology, worried about students failing to develop basic skills, are often lagging in what tech-industry leaders are calling a detection arms race.”

Luciana Lixandru: “A large percentage of large company founders in the US are repeat founders. Not repeat founders who had a mega-exit. It’s repeat founders who had the modest exit but had a taste for success. And the second time around, they want to go bigger and bolder. They’ve learned from their own mistakes. Often, they already know who their co-founders are. So we find that this profile of founders works incredibly well in the US. And now we’re seeing these people in Europe because the ecosystem is mature enough and because they’ve had time to build and exit and have another idea and start again.”

WSJ: “The search for the ideal office design has produced a rotating cast of answers—open floors for collaboration, private rooms for focus, hot desks for flexibility. But the search often misses something fundamental: The real driver of productivity isn’t the layout. It is how much control—or agency—people have over their own space. This shouldn’t come as a surprise: The ability to shape how you work—what you do, how you do it, where you do it—is central to both satisfaction and performance. Take that away and the message is clear: You’re a cog. Office space is no exception. Tell employees they are empowered while assigning seats and locking down the furniture, and the space undermines the message.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 5)

The Two Constraints

The AMP reach ceiling — design fallback-first.

AMP renders in only a subset of email clients — Gmail, Yahoo, and Mail.ru. A large share of every base, including Apple Mail and Outlook, sees only the HTML fallback. If the new architecture depends on AMP for its value, then a third to half of all recipients experience the old static email, and the result is a two-tier channel that works for some and not others.

The discipline is to design fallback-first. The HTML version has to be genuinely good on its own; AMP is the enhancement layered on top, never the floor. An architecture that only works for Gmail users is a smaller and weaker claim than the one this essay is making. The honest version treats the static fallback as a first-class deliverable and lets AMP raise the ceiling for the clients that support it.

AMP raises the ceiling where it renders. The HTML fallback sets the floor everywhere.

Living emails are harder to produce — and the tooling is itself the product.

A static email is easy to author. A living email — interactive, personalised per recipient, monetised, and writing back to memory — is materially harder. It breaks across clients, it demands new authoring skills, and it requires the sender to be AMP-registered in the first place, which is its own gate of DMARC and deliverability work.

An architecture that asks marketers to hand-build micro-apps will not scale, because they will not do it. So the architecture depends on tooling that makes a living email as easy to produce as a static one — and that tooling is itself something to be built. This is where the agentic-marketing layer and TwinFactory earn their place in the story: not as features bolted onto the side, but as the production system without which the whole architecture stays a slide. The primitives describe what a living email can be. The tooling is what determines whether anyone can actually make one.

***

The future of email is not more campaigns. It is a new architecture of living emails — Sell that helps customers decide, Notify that helps customers act, Relate that helps customers stay connected. AMP provides the interactivity, AI provides the personalisation, ActionAds provide the funding, and Atomic Rewards provide the habit. Applied unequally, matched to intent, and designed fallback-first, they turn the inbox’s oldest format into its most capable one.

The static template had a thirty-year run. It is over.

Email stops being a message you send. It becomes a surface the customer lives on.

Thinks 2017

NYTimes: “Taking both sides of the same bet is usually a wash. But not when there’s a price disparity. If this sounds like printing money, that’s because it basically is. It’s called “arbitrage,” long a favorite strategy of quantitative traders trying to juice profits from the stock market with minimal risk. You buy something at a cheap price, and simultaneously sell it at a more expensive price. It’s a win-win. Some bettors are now using the same strategy to rake in thousands of dollars from online prediction sites. Moving quickly, they can take advantage of price gaps between exchanges like Polymarket and Kalshi, or even between the prediction sites and sports-betting sites like DraftKings and FanDuel. The wider the spread, the bigger the potential profit.”

Arnold Kling: “The general principle is that AI does not replace all humans at a task. But it challenges humans to be at least as good as AI at that task. Those who can rise to the challenge can still do that work. The rest can do other things, but on that task they must step aside and let the AI do it.”

WSJ: “Software developers are on the front lines of these changes. Job openings for software developers through late May are down about 70% from the 2022 peak, although they have improved slightly from a low last spring, according to jobs site Indeed. These postings are also significantly below pre-Covid levels, even as overall job postings across all industries are up slightly since early 2020. While the AI boom is creating opportunities for experienced developers who can help steer and debug the massive outputs of AI coding platforms, there are still many software engineers with decadeslong careers who are seeing their options dwindle. Entry-level candidates are having a tougher-time landing jobs. AI-related layoffs, including thousands recently at Meta, have rattled tech workers at large.”

BCG newsletter: “Strategic clarity with regards to AI boils down to three elements: (1) Focus. Develop a strong vision and carefully choose the workflows where AI can do the most good and create (or strengthen) competitive advantage for the company. (2) Outcomes Over Tasks. Prioritize the value AI creates—speed, cost savings, innovation, for example—over the automation of individual tasks. (3) Team Effort. Understand the impact of AI at a systemic level; look at how teams work and how work can be redesigned.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 4)

Email as Micro-App

One primary job, one useful interaction, one memory update.

The failure mode of “make email interactive, personalised, gamified, and monetised” is the email that attempts all four at once and overwhelms. The discipline that prevents it is a rule of one. Each email has one primary job — Sell helps the customer decide, Notify helps the customer complete the next step, Relate helps the customer build a habit. One useful interaction, matched to that job. And one memory update.

Interactivity that does not serve the recipient’s reason for opening is friction, not delight. A Magnet inside a delivery confirmation is an intrusion; a live tracker is a gift. The same mechanic can be welcome or unwelcome depending only on whether it matches why the recipient opened. Trust is the asset here as everywhere — an email that consumes more attention than it returns is dismantling the channel faster than the static one it replaced.

The deepest shift is from message to micro-app.

The old email was a one-way artefact. Its loop was: send, open, read, click out. Everything that mattered happened somewhere else; the email was merely the trigger that sent the recipient away. The new email is a loop that completes in place: open, interact, decide, act, earn, and update memory. The email stops being a message about something and becomes a small application the recipient operates.

The old email triggers action elsewhere. The new email completes the loop in place.

The last step — update memory — is what makes it a system.

Of the new loop, the final step is the one most easily dropped and the most important. Every interaction should write back to the customer’s Context Graph — what they chose, what they ignored, what they completed, what they earned. An email that updates memory stops being a one-off campaign and becomes part of a learning system. The next email is composed from what the last one learned.

This is the link between the new email architecture and the rest of the stack — BrandTwins, Context Graphs, the agentic layer. Without the memory write-back, living emails are simply prettier campaigns: more engaging in the moment, but forgotten the instant they close. With it, they compound. Each interaction makes the next email sharper, which earns more interaction, which sharpens the email further.

Thinks 2016

NYTimes on LinkedIn: “Since 2020 it has doubled its membership to over 1.3 billion users, and has raised its revenue to more than $19 billion annually, the site said. Video content is growing on the site, and 18- to 29-year-olds are its fastest growing demographic. “Few places are structured around the ‘official life story’ the way that LinkedIn is,” said Bernie Hogan, an associate professor at the Oxford Internet Institute, adding that the site is a “welcome environment” for people who are highly focused on their careers.”

Arvind Narayanan: “As AI capabilities improve, the kinds of decisions that can be delegated to AI increase over time. But this does not make the “decide” layer thinner — once a decision can be delegated to AI, it is no longer a source of competitive advantage, and the value of human decision-making migrates upward. Software increases in complexity over time, so there is no ceiling to this process. At the other end of the sandwich, human teams need to be accountable for what they deliver. It is possible that some day in the future teams will ship mission-critical code without fully testing and understanding it, but today’s AI is so unreliable that such haphazard practices would represent an existential threat to software teams and their customers.”

WSJ: “Nvidia is No. 1 in The Wall Street Journal’s inaugural ranking of Best Companies for the Future, topping a list heavy on tech stalwarts as artificial intelligence reshapes business. The chip maker is joined in the top five by Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Cisco Systems, a group largely propelled by strong scores for innovation, financial strength and AI readiness—a measure of how prepared a company is for an AI-centric future, as reflected in its operations, its investments and its people. The ranking seeks to evaluate how well companies in the S&P 500 are doing on measures intended to match up with future success.”

FT: “Are we at the start of a new investment super-cycle? AI, clean energy and defence spending are reinforcing each other, amplifying potential spend.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 3)

The Architecture

The architecture is that the four primitives apply unequally.

The obvious mistake would be to apply all four primitives to all three formats — to make every email interactive, personalised, gamified, and monetised at once. That does not produce a living email. It produces clutter: the inbox equivalent of a webpage with too much on it, where four competing mechanics drown the one thing the recipient actually came for.

The architecture is the opposite of “everything everywhere.” Each primitive has a natural home in the Sell–Notify–Relate triad, and the discipline is to match the primitive to the recipient’s reason for opening that specific email. Get the matching right and the email feels alive. Get it wrong — a game inside a delivery receipt, a third-party ad inside a bank statement — and it feels like noise, or worse, like a breach of trust.

The four primitives applied across Sell, Notify, and Relate. Relate is the only surface lit across all four.

Sell becomes interactive and personal.

The long promotional poster becomes a few interactive decision blocks. AI composes the hero and the recommendations for the individual; AMP lets the recipient browse, pick, configure, and add to cart inside the inbox. This is the surface where AI and AMP earn the most, because the recipient’s reason for opening — to consider buying — is served directly by interactivity and personalisation.

ActionAds, though, are restricted here by the same doctrine that governs the inventory. A Sell email is already an advertisement, so open third-party demand inside it puts an ad inside an ad — diluting the sender’s own campaign and signalling that the sender does not value the recipient’s attention. Only first-party cross-sell and cooperative recovery are permitted. Atomic Rewards fit well as a conversion and preference-capture mechanic. Sell gets AI and AMP heavily, ActionAds only first-party.

Notify becomes live.

The transactional email is the most constrained surface and the one to touch most carefully. Here, AMP real-time-on-open is the single best use of the primitive in the entire triad. A delivery email that shows live tracking when opened; a booking that shows current status; a statement that shows the latest balance. The recipient already wants exactly that information, so live-on-open turns a stale receipt into a useful instrument rather than an intrusion.

The other three primitives are deliberately restrained here. ActionAds belong on a transactional surface only as narrow, service-adjacent exceptions — and never on legally protected transactional content, where adding promotional material can reclassify the email as commercial under CAN-SPAM and equivalent regimes. Rewards appear almost never. And personalisation in Notify means accuracy and timeliness, not creative variation. Notify gets AMP heavily, and everything else lightly.

Relate becomes the habit — and it is the real prize.

Relate is the surface the four primitives were made for, and the only one where all four combine without conflict. AMP makes it interactive. AI makes each one individual. Atomic Rewards make it a daily habit worth returning to. And ActionAds are fully available — because Relate content is not itself a sales pitch, it is the one SNR surface where open third-party demand is doctrinally clean, and where the funding layer makes the daily send sustainable.

This is the crucial distinction. Notify and Sell are upgrades to formats that already exist — better versions of the receipt and the promotion. Relate is a creation — the surface that does not exist today, brought into being by the four primitives operating at once. It is the longest period in any customer relationship and the one in which, today, brands send nothing. That is why Relate is the prize, not the afterthought — it is the one surface the architecture does not merely improve but invents.

Thinks 2015

NYTimes: “China has been making and installing factory robots at a pace unmatched by any other country. In 2024, more than two million robots were operating in Chinese factories, and another 300,000 were installed — more than in the rest of the world combined. Industrial robot installations declined in each of the next largest markets: Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany.”

WSJ: “Communications professionals, previously relegated to the periphery, are now front and center in the C-suite, partly emboldened by CEOs’ fears that even the smallest misstep can swiftly balloon into a corporate disaster. The bleeding together of investor memos, advertising copy, press releases, company social-media accounts and most recently large language model results has sent business leaders scrambling to better control the corporate narrative at the very top. Nearly half of chief communications officers surveyed in 2025 said they report directly to their company’s CEO, up from 40% in 2023 and 37% in 2015, according to research from executive recruiter and consulting firm Korn Ferry.”

Business Standard: “For decades, software development was governed by rigid, linear frameworks. From the traditional Waterfall model’s strict sequence of specification docs and static wireframes to iterative feedback loops, the core engineering process has always relied on step-by-step human execution.  Now, that pipeline is being disrupted. By writing millions of lines of code and compressing design, development and testing into a single fluid operation, autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) agents are not just accelerating production — they are permanently dismantling the technology industry’s foundational software development lifecycle.” 

Tavleen Singh: “The problem in India is not unemployment but unemployability.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 2)

The Four Primitives

AMP: from frozen artefact to live surface.

AMP for Email lets the email become stateful and actionable. Instead of clicking out to do anything, the recipient can answer, choose, browse, configure, book, and complete actions inside the inbox. And — the part that matters most — the email can update on open, showing live status, live price, or live availability at the moment of reading rather than the moment of sending.

This changes what an email fundamentally is. It stops being a message about something and becomes a surface you act on. AMP is the foundation primitive, because the other three have far less to work with on a static page. There is little point personalising, funding, or rewarding a document that the recipient cannot do anything with.

AI: from segment to N=1.

Personalisation in email has meant, for years, a first name in the subject line and a product grid loosely tied to a segment. AI changes the unit of personalisation from the segment to the individual. Every block — the hero, the recommendation, the explanation, the next-best-action, the timing, the tone — can be composed for one recipient rather than templated for a cohort.

The email stops being a campaign sent to many and becomes a composed experience assembled for one. This is where BrandTwins and the Context Graph do the work. The BrandTwin decides what each customer should see; the Context Graph carries the memory of what they have opened, ignored, purchased, and acted on. AI without that memory is just faster templating. AI with it is genuine N=1.

ActionAds: from cost centre to funded surface.

Historically, a brand pays to send email and hopes to earn it back through downstream conversion. ActionAds invert that arrangement: revenue can be earned inside the email itself. This matters most for the format that has no other funding model.

A relationship email rarely has immediate commerce ROI. So without a way to fund it, brands will not send it consistently — which is precisely why Relate barely exists today. ActionAds are therefore not just another feature; for Relate, they are the precondition. They make a regular, non-selling send economically sustainable, and economic sustainability is what allows the surface to exist at all. A Relate email that costs money every day and earns nothing will be cut the first time a budget is reviewed. One that funds itself survives.

Atomic Rewards: from occasional opens to habit.

Information alone does not create a habit. People need a reason to open repeatedly, and Atomic Rewards supply the missing behavioural layer. Small, frequent rewards tied to a genuine action — Mu, streaks, progress, status, unlocks — convert email from sporadic communication into ritual.

The discipline is that the rewards must be small, frequent, and earned: an open streak, a completed poll, a preference set, a prediction made. A reward given for nothing teaches nothing. A reward earned for a small action builds a loop. Atomic Rewards turn the recipient from someone a brand pushes messages at into someone who participates.

Thinks 2014

Ethan Mollick: “Computer programming is now offering a really good view of this kind of thing. It used to be that being a coder was writing good code on a regular basis. Now suddenly in the course of a few months, it becomes about managing engineering tasks. So I think you’re going to see other shifts in what people’s jobs are expected to be.”

WSJ: “[Some] workers..have embraced “microshifting,” or carving their day into short chunks of work, with intentional breaks for family time or personal replenishment. While employees who work from home have long squeezed personal business into the workday—with or without the boss’s blessing—more are now openly working at the times when they are most productive, often in segments of several hours, and some companies are encouraging it.”

: “As technology levels the field between stronger and weaker nations, old-fashioned wars of conquest might no longer be possible.”

Mint: “Simply put: being an outsider is the primary virtue of the outsider; they win because of it, not despite it. Outsiders are untainted by the problems of an existing system that is often perceived to be corrupt, elitist and indifferent to the challenges facing ordinary people. Established political parties are frequently seen—regardless of ideological orientation—as machines run by hypocritical and self-dealing careerists. An outsider is not beholden to these vested interests, can sweep out the corrupt and inject new ideas and energy into a predictable process that only serves the interests of the powerful. The outsider is also seen as ‘self-made’ in the sense that he has been successful in some field other than politics (such as business, law or entertainment) and has name recognition from that success.”

Email’s New Architecture: Sell, Notify, Relate (Part 1)

The inventory essay named where the attention is. This one rebuilds what runs on the surface. AMP, AI, ActionAds, and Atomic Rewards can turn static messages into living, personalised, self-funding surfaces.

The Frozen Template

Email formats froze more than a decade ago, while every other consumer surface became interactive, live, and personalised. The result is three broken formats. The Sell email is a long discount poster. The Notify email is a dry, matter-of-fact alert. The Relate email — the regular, non-selling rhythm that would actually build a relationship — mostly does not exist.

Four developments can rebuild all three. AMP brings interactivity and live updates on open. AI brings personalisation down to the individual. ActionAds bring a funding layer. Atomic Rewards bring a habit layer.

The architecture is not “apply four technologies to email.” It is that the four apply unequally across Sell, Notify, and Relate — and that matching each primitive to the recipient’s reason for opening is what separates a living email from inbox clutter.

This essay is the sequel to the inventory piece. That one named the six surfaces of the inbox — where the attention is. This one rebuilds the unit that runs on those surfaces — the email itself.

**

Every digital surface became alive — except the email.

Over the last fifteen years, the feed learned to refresh, stories learned to expire and update, the app learned to respond to a tap in place. Every consumer surface became interactive, live, and personalised. Email did not move.

The email you receive today works almost exactly as it did in 2010. It is a static document, assembled once at the moment of sending, that you read and then click out of to do anything at all. Want to buy the thing it shows you? Click out to a website. Want to check the status it mentions? Click out to an app. Want to answer its question? Click out to a form. The email itself does nothing; it is a trigger that sends you elsewhere.

It is the only major digital surface that is still, fundamentally, a printed page delivered electronically. Every other surface closed the loop between seeing and doing. The inbox is the last place where the two are still separated by a click that leaves.

Three formats, each broken in its own way.

Brands send email in three modes — Sell, Notify, Relate (SNR) — and each has decayed in a different direction. The Sell email became a long promotional poster: a stack of images, heavy on discounts, low on trust, opened by fewer people every year. The Notify email became a dry, matter-of-fact alert: useful, but emotionally empty and economically inert — a receipt that asks nothing and offers nothing beyond the bare fact it confirms.

And the Relate email — the regular, non-selling rhythm that would actually maintain a relationship between purchases — mostly does not exist. Most brands have only two of the three. They sell, and they notify. In the long stretch between those two moments, they go silent. A relationship that consists only of being sold to and being notified is not a relationship. It is a series of interruptions.

Staticness, not deliverability, is the channel’s decline.

The industry has spent fifteen years optimising the wrong variable. Deliverability, list hygiene, send-time optimisation, subject-line testing — all of it treats the email as a fixed object to be delivered more efficiently to more inboxes. None of it asks whether the object itself is worth opening once it arrives.

The decline of email as an attention channel is not a delivery problem. It is a format problem. The thing being delivered has not changed in a decade, while everything competing for the same attention has. The static template is obsolete — and no amount of delivery optimisation fixes an artefact that no longer earns the open. The format is the bottleneck, and the format is what needs rebuilding.