Published September 14, 2026
Ten essays on what happens when software becomes cheap to make — and on everything that did not become cheap with it
This series began with a book from 1991 and ended with a set of pre-commitments. Between the two it moved from an argument about production, to an argument about what software becomes, to an argument about the shape of the company that follows.
This essay is a map for anyone arriving now, and a reference for anyone who read them out of order. Each brief states what its essay settles, so that a reader can take the four or five that matter to them and leave the rest.
The argument in one line: AI collapsed the cost of producing software and left untouched everything that makes software dependable — so the opportunity is not cheaper code, but a company built around the half that did not change.

The ten essays, and the three movements they fall into.
I · The Revolution
The first four essays make an economic argument and never leave it. Production, waste, machinery, price.
1
The Software Foundry: The Third Affordability Revolution
Opens with Michael Cusumano’s Japan’s Software Factories, published in 1991, which documented Hitachi, Toshiba, NEC and Fujitsu attempting the move from craft to factory modes of software production. They were early by three decades, and the essay asks what changed. Software remained the last artisanal industry — scaled by adding people rather than by industrialising method — and AI is the first thing to alter that.
It introduces the double Pareto cut: most software is over-built for most buyers, and most products rebuild foundations that already exist. It argues why incumbents cannot follow a price they could otherwise match. And it names the prize as an affordability dividend rather than a margin one — the point is not that today’s buyer pays less, but that tomorrow’s buyer finally exists.
2
The same argument from the buyer’s side. The problem is not that any single application is expensive; it is that a growing business assembles itself from applications that each rebuild the same identity, data, permissions and workflow — then hands the customer the job of connecting them. The tax was never charged. It accumulated, one reasonable subscription at a time.
It rejects the obvious remedy along with the disease: the monolithic suite is not the answer to fragmentation. The architecture it names instead is One Core, Many Products — shared foundations underneath focused products, with Pareto software understood as focus rather than neglect.
3
Inside the Foundry: The Machine That Makes the Machines
Written for the builder, and it begins with a warning: the tools are available to everyone, and most of what gets built with them will not be a foundry but a faster workshop. AI-generated code is not a production system.
It walks the floor. Specifications become the control surfaces that govern the production loop. Components become the tooling. Quality is manufactured through controls built into production rather than inspected afterwards. And the craftsman is elevated rather than removed — the judgement moves upstream to architecture, domain truth and exceptions. It closes on the test the whole series is later judged by: the workshop celebrates what it built; the foundry measures what it can build next.
4
The essay that turns a production argument into a market one. A faster factory that keeps the old price has improved a margin, not started a revolution; the revolution becomes visible when the invoice changes, and contagious when the changed invoice becomes the number every other vendor must explain.
It defines the foundry price as the lowest sustainable price for dependable software produced this way — not a subsidised discount — and shows how such a number spreads without a single customer switching, by appearing in renewal conversations the producer never attends. It sets out the incumbent’s six binds, of which the valuation bind is the deepest, and ends with a renewal playbook of questions a buyer can ask before signing.
II · The World It Creates
Two essays that step outside any one company and ask what has changed about software itself. They are the intellectual centre of the series, and they can be read without the other eight.
5
The flagship. Three shifts: handwritten to generated, as specifications replace code as the source of truth; maintained to regenerated, so software need not age the way it always has; and operated to authorised, as software stops waiting to be used and begins acting within delegated boundaries.
It supplies the operating discipline of the era — humans edit the specification, machines regenerate the implementation — and its honesty condition: the new technical debt is specification debt. A poor specification regenerates bad software faster and across more products than any human team could. It corrects the popular claim about agentic software, which is not deterministic giving way to agentic but agentic control over deterministic execution, permanently, for the sake of both margin and the audit trail. And it raises the objection the next essay exists to answer.
6
If producing software has become cheap for vendors, it has become cheap for customers too. Many will build what they used to buy, and some should. The essay grants that fully, then makes the distinction the whole series turns on: self-building does not remove the software producer. It relocates the producer inside the customer — along with the specification, the connectors, the incidents, the regulation, the continuity and the answerability.
It separates two kinds of cost. Effort — connectors, releases, incidents, security, permissions, support — can be bought late. Standing with third parties, consent provenance and reversibility cannot. And it explains why the obligation grew more expensive rather than less: delegation converts specification gaps into consequences. A missing edge case once produced a wrong screen; it now produces a wrong action in the world.
III · The Company It Forces
Four shorter essays, written after the doctrine was settled, on the institution the argument implies.
7
Begins from an unusual place: at one-tenth the incumbent price, most of a conventional software company is not a choice but an arithmetic impossibility. It takes each function — sales, implementation, customer success, support, seat pricing, lock-in — names the constraint it was invented to solve, and asks whether the constraint survived. Almost every expensive function of a software company existed to compensate for a product that could not do something.
Then the turn. Accountability, migration and incident ownership do not dissolve and must be industrialised rather than deleted, because a price reached by removing them is not a low price but unpriced risk moved onto the buyer. It locates the real target: not the eighty-five per cent gross margin, which funds work that deserves paying for, but the forty-odd cents of every revenue dollar that incumbents spend on being found and believed. One Tenth is what the price becomes when the go-to-market line is deleted rather than the product.
8
Incumbents are protected by something they did not build and cannot lose: the customer’s reasonable belief that leaving would be worse than staying. When replacements took years to build, that was one obstacle among many. When the replacement can be produced in months, it is the only obstacle left standing.
The essay separates implementation, which configures a product, from migration, which carries a living organisation — and shows why a go-live can succeed while a migration fails. It walks eight stages, of which the hardest is reconstructing an operating specification the incumbent never had, from four accounts of the business that will not agree with each other. It argues that shadow operation produces a list of disagreements rather than a pass mark, and that only one of the five kinds is a defect. And it accepts the consequence: a producer who industrialises leaving must make leaving them easy too, because a customer who cannot leave never tests any of the producer’s claims.
9
Clears a confusion first: engagement, finance, project management and service are functions, not verticals — jobs recurring across every industry, which is why they look like large markets and have no shared core. A function tells the buyer what the product does. A vertical tells the product what it already knows.
The argument for depth is an asymmetry: the businesses least able to write down their own operating truth are precisely the ones affordable software exists to serve. So the product must arrive already knowing how the work is done and ask only what is different here. Six tests follow — price beyond the job, a visible stack, extractable data, repeatable execution, a bounded accountability tail, and distribution — to be applied as an intersection rather than a score. The sixth decides, because it is the only one AI did not make easier to pass.
10
Converts nine essays of argument into commitments, on the grounds that the failure mode of this thesis is not being wrong but being right and then, one reasonable decision at a time, becoming the thing it described.
Four refusals, each with the reason it will be tested: no customer-specific fork, no customer large enough to rewrite the model, no second vertical before the first core compounds, and no quiet removal of the promise. Four promises: one bill, eight jobs, a tenth of the price, a safe way out — with the obligation inspectable, because a cheap product and an unpriced risk look identical from outside. And one number rather than a dashboard: is the second product materially cheaper, faster and safer to produce than the first, with the threshold published before the first product ships.






