Thinks 2031

NYTimes: ‘A slew of factors goes into investments and status in Silicon Valley. Lately, an intangible one has pulled ahead as a predictor of success or failure: “signal.” If your behaviors are deemed high-signal: Congratulations, you’re coming across as a winner and rewards may follow. If your actions are seen as anti-signal: Sorry, you’re radiating cringey energy that may hamper your chances.”

Anindya Chatterjee: “What are engineering jobs that AI cannot do? Jobs that require skill with both computers and hands, travel to jobsites, human presence, unexpected connections between ideas, and situations where data is unavailable or confidential. These, more than entrance-exam ranks and offer-withdrawing recruiters, need thinking about.”

Noah Smith: “Over the last two years, I’ve felt like my job has become a bit less important than it used to be, for three reasons: (1) The rise of populism on all sides of the political spectrum in the U.S. means that smart ideas are simply not as likely to be implemented by the people in power. (2) The general shift to Substack and other monetizable direct-to-audience channels has made punditry less conversational. (3) The rapid proliferation of AI writing has increased the demands on readers’ attention (including my own).”

WSJ: “The memory armageddon has arrived…Buyers of consumer electronics are getting hit. The primary driver is the skyrocketing cost of memory and storage chips, especially those known as DRAM and NAND flash memory, which are essential for transferring data and storing information on devices. These chips are the same ones craved by artificial-intelligence companies, which use them to help train and run large language models, coding agents and other tools. As AI adoption has exploded, the memory-chip industry—dominated by just three companies: South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics and Boise, Idaho-based Micron Technology—is suffering from a major capacity crunch.”

From SEND to EARN: The New Business Model for ESPs

1

The Trap: Why Sending Alone Cannot Save Email 

How email service providers escape commoditisation by moving from delivery revenue to actions, outcomes and inbox media.

Email did not lose relevance. The companies that sell it lost imagination. For twenty-five years, email service providers built businesses around a single verb — send — and were rewarded for doing it reliably, at scale, with deliverability, routing, templates and reporting. That was not a mistake; it was exactly what the market needed. But the thing you are paid for is the thing you optimise, and an industry paid by the send spent a quarter of a century perfecting delivery while the email itself barely changed. The result is a category that is now judged by the very logic it taught the market to apply. This essay is in three parts: the trap, the ladder, and the business of climbing it.

The old bargain, and the ceiling it built

The original bargain was sound. Brands had databases they could not operate at scale and a channel — the inbox — that was the cheapest owned ground they possessed. They needed lists cleaned, domains protected, campaigns scheduled, events tracked, bounces suppressed, complaints monitored and messages delivered without breaking reputation or compliance. The email service provider became the operating layer for that channel, and it earned its keep. Email became the workhorse of digital retention because it combined three advantages almost nothing else could match: a known identity, a near-zero marginal cost, and genuine ownership — a brand could reach its own customer without renting an audience from a platform.

The business model followed the job. ESPs were paid for contacts, sends, volume and platform access; the input became the invoice, and the invoice quietly shaped the product. But the category made one consequential error: it confused the channel’s value with the provider’s value. The brand owned the customer. The mailbox provider — Gmail, Apple Mail, Outlook — owned the client software. The ESP owned only the sending system in the narrow middle. That position built a durable business and, at the same time, a strategic ceiling: the vendor could move the message but not easily change what the message was, could optimise the sending but not own the moment of opening, could report engagement but never guarantee a profit.

So ESPs did what infrastructure companies do — they made the infrastructure better. Faster sending, better routing, better templates, better deliverability monitoring, better APIs, better dashboards. All useful, all necessary, and all increasingly comparable across vendors. The better an ESP became at delivery, the more invisible it became — and invisible infrastructure is eventually priced like infrastructure. The ceiling was not a failure of execution. It was built into the position the category chose to occupy.

 Five reasons the category under-imagined itself

 Email did not become a commodity because email failed. It became a commodity because the vendor model under-imagined what email could become — for five reasons at once, each of which now points at its own way out.

The first was pricing. Paid on sends, ESPs optimised the world around sending: more contacts, more journeys, more triggered messages. Rational, and beside the point. The deepest customer problem was never “can this be sent?” but “is this worth opening, and will it cause the next profitable action?” A business priced on sends will never build the email that makes sends matter less.

The second was surface ownership. An email renders inside someone else’s client, so the ESP never owned the canvas the way an ad platform owns its unit. Concluding — correctly — that they could not control the client, vendors wrongly concluded they could not change the artefact, and improved the machinery around the email while the email stood still.

The third was the all-or-nothing mistake on interactivity. When interactive email arrived, support across clients was uneven, so the industry treated it as a campaign trick rather than a design principle. The better conclusion was available and never drawn: interactivity is one rendering path, not the whole strategy; the real job is to compose the best possible experience at open, with graceful fallback everywhere else.

The fourth was measurement. When open-rate reliability broke, the industry lost a familiar instrument and read the darkness as decline, instead of rebuilding around stronger signals — clicks, actions, replies, sessions, declared intent, transaction movement. The channel still held attention; the dashboard simply could no longer see it.

The fifth was cost. A genuinely useful email is not a template with a name inserted; it is a fresh decision made for a specific reader at a specific moment — what is true now, what to show now, what action to allow now, what to remember afterwards. For most of email’s history, composing that at scale was simply too expensive. A brand could handcraft one clever campaign, not operate millions of living messages a day. Put the five together and the verdict “email is tired” was a misdiagnosis: the patient was fine, the thermometer was broken, the treatment had not been invented, and the people who could have invented it were paid to do something else.

The commodity spiral

The trap has a cruel mechanism: excellence at the old job accelerates commoditisation. Deliverability, scale, compliance, routing, security, support — all of it matters, and all of it becomes harder to monetise the moment the buyer believes several vendors clear an acceptable bar. Then the conversation moves from value to benchmark. Procurement enters. Vendor diversification becomes policy. The customer asks for lower unit cost, more volume, more resilience and less dependency — and every one of those requests is reasonable.

Figure 1 — A single-rung business, priced on the input, is squeezed on the input. The pipe must be run well; it cannot be asked to carry the future margin.

The danger is that this position is comfortable for a long time. Revenue continues, renewals continue, campaigns and support tickets continue — and the category quietly loses altitude. The vendor becomes operationally important while becoming strategically replaceable: a line item to be optimised rather than a partner to be expanded. A company that sells only delivery will eventually be priced by delivery. Defending the pipe harder does not arrest the spiral; it deepens it, because every incremental improvement to an invisible utility is, by definition, hard to charge for. The escape cannot be found on the rung where the trap was built.

Why “more interactivity” is not the escape

 The obvious response is to make email more interactive — more AMP, better templates, more widgets, forms and calculators. That is directionally right and strategically incomplete, because it confuses a capability with a business model. If interactivity is sold as one-time development, it stays a services line; if an embedded calculator is sold like a campaign asset, it stays a cost; if a living digest is sold as a template upgrade, it stays inside the old budget. The artefact becomes modern while the economics remain ancient.

The distinction is subtle and decisive. Interactivity as a feature says: pay us to build a better email. Interactivity as an action surface says: use the email to capture intent, complete actions, move customers and prove incremental value. The same artefact can sit in either model. A broker’s in-email application flow can be a paid development project, or an outcome instrument measured against a control. A retailer’s replenishment email can be a clever template, or a repeat-purchase engine. A publisher’s digest can be content, or monetisable inventory. The question is never what the email contains; it is what the vendor is paid for. Adding features to a per-send contract produces a more expensive pipe, not a new business — which is why a decade of “do more AMP” has not moved the category’s economics an inch.

Why now — three unlocks converge

If the diagnosis is twenty-five years old, why act now? Because three constraints that held the old model in place have broken at roughly the same moment, and their convergence is the opening the category has been waiting for.

Figure 2 — Three long-standing constraints break at once, and converge on a single opening: a living email, paid on what it proves.

The first unlock is artificial intelligence. The reason a living email was never operated at scale was cost: composing a fresh, relevant message per reader at the moment of opening could not be done economically. AI does not magically save email, but it changes what is cheap enough to attempt — the old email was written at send and guessed what would matter; the new email can be assembled at open and check what is true.

The second is the measurement reset. The collapse of the open rate, which once looked like a loss, is in fact the forcing function: with the old vanity metric gone, the only credible thing left to measure is action and lift against a control — exactly the basis an outcome business needs. The instrument that broke was the one keeping the category honest about the wrong thing.

The third is the rising cost of rented attention. As paid channels became more expensive and less certain, the economics of re-buying a customer you already own turned from wasteful to indefensible, and the owned inbox — identity-linked, low-cost, permissioned — became the obvious place to recover and retain rather than re-acquire. None of these three would be sufficient alone.

Together they make a living, accountable, owned-attention business not only possible but overdue. The conditions that made the old model rational have expired; the conditions that make the new one rational have arrived.

The surface is an asset

Step back and the reframe is simple. The surface was never the product. The surface is an asset. An owned email relationship has four properties that make it far too valuable to remain trapped inside per-send economics: it is identity-linked, it is low-cost, it is repeatable, and it sits in a place the customer returns to, reads, decides and acts. Unlike a paid impression it is not rented for a moment and gone; unlike a notification it can hold content, context, memory and choice; unlike a landing page it begins from a known relationship. Delivery is merely the first way to monetise that asset — and the category mistook the first way for the only way.

The next model for ESPs is therefore not another feature bundle but a migration from SEND to EARN. EARN stands for Email, Act, Run, Network. Email names the owned surface and the infrastructure that delivers it; Act makes that surface useful and interactive; Run takes responsibility for outcomes on it; Network turns trusted attention into media and cooperative acquisition. There is a deliberate symmetry with the framework brands already use. SNR — Sell, Notify, Relate — is the brand’s grammar for what an email should do. EARN is the vendor’s model for how the same surface gets paid. One describes the message; the other describes the business. They are two views of the same owned attention, seen from opposite sides of the table — and the only question that matters for Part 2 is this: if the future ESP is not paid primarily per send, then what is it paid for?

**

The old email business earned from volume. The next one earns from value — and the difference is not a feature, it is a business model.

2

The Ladder: How the Email Business Climbs

EARN is a business-model migration, not a product roadmap, and the distinction is the whole point. Product roadmaps list things to build; business-model migrations change the unit of value. Each rung of EARN changes the buyer, the competitor, the pricing logic and — the word that matters most — the accountability the vendor is willing to take. The same owned surface remains underneath the entire way up. What rises is what the vendor is trusted, and paid, to do.

Figure 3 — The EARN ladder. One owned surface, four ways to be paid; value and accountability rising with each rung. The climb is the strategy.

E  Email — the infrastructure rung

Email is the floor: sending, routing, deliverability, reporting, compliance, APIs, rendering, suppression, authentication, reputation and operational support. Every serious vendor must run it well, because if this layer fails nothing above it matters. The buyer is procurement or marketing operations; the competitor is another ESP, an internal sending system or a cheaper delivery vendor; the pricing is input-led — per send, committed volume, platform access.

The strategic instruction here is counterintuitive and easy to get wrong: make Send efficient, and do not expect it to carry the future margin. There is no honour in pretending that sending is not infrastructure; it is. But infrastructure is not unimportant — roads are infrastructure, and everything travels on them. The error is not treating Send as essential; the error is worshipping it. The point of the Email rung is not premium pricing forever. It is to hold the owned surface through which the higher-value models can emerge, because an ESP that loses the send relationship usually loses the surface, the signals, the habit and the right to propose anything above it. So the pipe must be defended and run beautifully — and then deliberately treated as the cash engine and the distribution layer, not the destination.

A  Act — the capability rung

 One floor up, the email stops being a message and becomes a surface on which the customer can do something. It becomes live, current and able to remember: a digest assembled at open, a calculator personalised to the reader, a preference fork, a survey, a product selector, a renewal option, a claim status, a booking flow, a consent request, an intent signal. The point is not that every email becomes an app — it is that the inbox can now contain actions, not merely links to actions.

The buyer changes entirely: this is a marketing, growth and product conversation, not a procurement one. So does the competitor — here the vendor is up against agencies, dev shops, campaign studios, AMP specialists and the inertia of doing nothing, never another ESP. And so the pricing must change with it: a capability fee, a managed-innovation programme, a zero-development-cost pilot with upside participation, or a hybrid — anything but a return to per-send. The value is not the number of emails delivered; it is that the email can now capture an action, signal or preference that previously demanded a click-out, a login or a separate app session.

But Act has one discipline of its own: it is the on-ramp, not the destination. Its job is adoption and proof, not full outcome risk from day one. A new interactive surface usually needs to demonstrate that people engage with it, return to it and trust it before it can carry a revenue guarantee. A vendor that treats Act as the summit will over-invest in a thin-margin tier and call it transformation; a vendor that treats it as the path will use it to generate the evidence the next rung is priced on. Act helps the brand do more. Run takes responsibility for the result.

R  Run — the outcome rung

Run is where the model changes character. Here the vendor stops merely enabling the brand and begins operating for a result: recover a dormant customer, restart a relationship, drive a second purchase, reactivate a subscriber, convert a declared intent, bring a lapsing buyer back before paid media has to. The buyer is the CMO and, increasingly, the CFO, because the conversation is no longer about campaign performance — it is about customer economics, about money that would not otherwise have appeared. The competitor is no longer an ESP or even an agency; it is the paid channels a brand reaches for when its owned attention runs out.

The pricing follows the accountability. It is not input-led; it is based on verified lift — a defined cohort, a concurrent, randomised control group rather than a prior-period baseline, an attributable outcome, and a payout only on what was added above what would have happened anyway. This is where the lost margin returns, because proven incremental value is the one thing a commodity pipe can never be. A brand does not need another dashboard confirming an email was sent and clicked; it needs to know whether a customer likely to be lost was recovered without paying to win them back, whether an in-email action created revenue rather than merely harvesting demand that would have arrived anyway, whether attention was rebuilt rather than spent.

Run is a fundamentally different business from selling software access, and it is more demanding. It requires operators, measurement discipline, creative judgement, experimentation and commercial courage; it will look services-shaped before it becomes a repeatable system, and that is acceptable — most outcome businesses begin as expert operations. The non-negotiable is honesty of measurement. Without a control group, every outcome claim is attribution theatre; with one, the vendor can say here is the baseline, here is the intervention, here is the lift, here is the payment. That sentence is the bridge from a marketing promise to a finance-grade fact — and it is the rung where an ESP becomes an Email Alpha company.

N  Network — the media rung

 Network is the top rung, and it arrives last because it must be earned. A brand’s inbox attention is valuable only while the customer keeps trusting it, and that trust is not created by inserting advertising into every available slot — it is created by making the emails useful enough that people keep opening them. Only a surface that has earned attention can become media.

When that condition is met, the surface becomes inventory: first for the brand’s own offers, then for carefully governed partner demand, and eventually as a cooperative network in which one brand’s earned attention can help another recover or acquire a customer in a permissioned, brand-safe way. The buyer changes again — partnerships, media, advertisers — and the competitor is not an ESP at all but retail media, commerce media and ad networks. The pricing is revenue-share, yield and media economics. But the sequencing is the discipline: first-party before third-party; utility before monetisation; trust before inventory; relevance before scale. A broker uses action modules for its own products before it carries anyone else’s; a retailer moves its own customers across categories before it sells a slot; a publisher serves its own subscription goals first. Network depends on everything below it — without Email there is no surface, without Act no interaction, without Run no proof that attention converts — which is exactly why it is the horizon and not the opening move. It is what an ESP becomes when it stops being a sender and becomes a marketplace for owned attention.

Where ActionAds belong — a bridge, not a rung

 The most common confusion is where in-mail action units sit, and the answer is that they are a bridge across the ladder rather than a rung of their own. A first-party action unit — apply, renew, calculate, sample, upgrade, restart, declare intent — lives inside the brand’s own funnel: sold as a capability it belongs to Act; operated against a control and paid on lift it belongs to Run. The artefact has not changed; only the commercial treatment has.

Partner inventory is different. The moment a unit carries an outside advertiser or a complementary brand, it begins to become media, and it belongs to Network — provided the host brand keeps control of category, frequency, relevance and exclusions. The cooperative network is the endgame: many brands operating trusted surfaces, each able to carry relevant action units without degrading engagement, with the vendor coordinating demand, recovery and acquisition across them. The rule is short enough to remember: first-party proves value, partner inventory creates media, the network creates the marketplace.

The two laws that make EARN a strategy

 A ladder of revenue models is only a menu unless two laws hold it together.

The first: a thing’s rung is set by how you sell it, not by what it is. The same living email can be Act or Run. Sold as a build, a capability or a managed experience, it is Act. Tied to a defined cohort, measured against a control and paid on attributable lift, it is Run. The artefact did not change; the commercial model did. The discriminator is the counterfactual: a clean baseline and payment on lift makes it Run; the absence of one makes it Act. And on any single audience you charge for the capability or you take a share of the outcome — never both, because no brand will tolerate paying twice for the same value.

Figure 4 — The same living email is Run or Act depending only on whether a clean counterfactual exists.

The second law: the rungs only compound if each one graduates customers to the next. Email funds Act; Act proves into Run; Run builds the attention density that makes Network possible. The number that tells a vendor whether the strategy is working is therefore not revenue per rung but the graduation rate between rungs — how many Email accounts adopt Act, how many Act pilots become Run programmes, how much trusted attention becomes Network inventory. Without that movement an ESP does not have a ladder; it has four disconnected product lines, and the commodity gravity of the ground floor will drag the whole structure back down to a per-send argument. EARN is a strategy only if each rung feeds the next.

3

The Business: Making the Climb Real

A model is only as good as the business that can be built on it. The architecture of EARN is clear; what decides whether it becomes a company rather than a slide is harder — the economics of each rung, the way the organisation is wired, what the buyer actually experiences, and the objections honest enough to break it. This part is about the climb in practice.

The economics of the climb

 The four rungs do not merely earn different amounts of money; they earn different kinds of money, and the market prices each kind differently. Email is software-shaped at the commodity end: infinite scale, near-zero marginal cost, but benchmarked to the floor and valued as a utility. Act is closer to classic software economics — a capability sold repeatedly across a base — and earns a software multiple when it is productised rather than hand-built each time. Run is, at least at first, services-shaped: it carries real cost of delivery, demands talent and judgement, and is valued more cautiously until it becomes a repeatable system rather than a heroic engagement. Network, once it has density, earns the richest economics of all — media and marketplace yield with network effects — but only a handful of operators ever get there.

Figure 5 — Each rung earns a different kind of money. Value and the multiple the market pays rise as accountability rises.

Two consequences follow, and both are easy to miss. First, the rung that returns margin (Run) is also the rung that consumes capital and attention, because outcome work is funded in advance and collected in arrears, against proven lift. Working capital, not demand, is often the real constraint on how fast a vendor can scale outcome programmes — a queue of eager pilots can starve a balance sheet. Second, the rungs have opposing financial signatures — a high-multiple, low-touch floor beneath a lower-multiple, high-touch middle — which means running them on one P&L blends two businesses the market would value separately. The discipline is to let the software economics of Email and Act fund the services economics of Run until Run becomes systematic, and to ring-fence each so neither distorts the other. The climb is not just a value story; it is a cash-flow story, and the vendors that misjudge the second never finish the first.

The operating model

 A new business model needs a new operating model, because the four rungs cannot share a single incentive and survive. The Email team runs infrastructure and is measured on deliverability, reliability, reputation and margin. The Act team runs experiences and is measured on adoption, action completion, data capture and time-to-deploy. The Run team runs outcomes and is measured on verified lift, recovery, control-group discipline and repeatability. The Network team runs media and is measured on fill, yield, advertiser repeat and the health of the audience’s attention. They can share technology, data, design systems and account relationships; they cannot share a scorecard.

The reason is gravitational. If a single team is measured only on send revenue, EARN dies inside the company — every quarter. The urgent renewal always beats the uncertain outcome pilot; the platform quota always crowds out the network experiment; the infrastructure mindset makes every higher rung look like custom work to be avoided. Spare time is Send time, and EARN never gets built in spare time. The structure has to make the higher rungs someone’s actual job, with their own targets, their own definition of success and their own permission to behave unlike the cash engine — services-shaped where the cash engine is software-shaped, patient where the cash engine is transactional. Without that separation, the new business is quietly strangled by the old one’s metrics.

If you are the brand

 EARN is written from the vendor’s side, but it is at least as useful read from the buyer’s. For a CMO, the ladder is a way to stop having one undifferentiated argument about email — price — and start having four precise ones. The send is an infrastructure decision: settle it efficiently, keep it reliable, and do not let it consume the conversation. Everything above it is a growth decision, and it should be evaluated on growth’s terms, not procurement’s.

The practical implication is that a marketing leader should refuse to let the two conversations contaminate each other. Outcome work judged as a line-item cost will always look expensive; the same work judged against a holdout, paid only on proven lift, is the safest budget a CMO can hold — spend that, by construction, cannot lose money. So the buyer’s discipline mirrors the vendor’s: agree the measurement before the money, own the baseline and the control group, and treat “no lift, no fee” not as a vendor concession but as the brand’s protection. The brand that learns to buy outcomes instead of sends gets a partner whose incentives finally point the same way as its own. And the brand keeps the thing that matters most — the owned customer relationship — instead of renting it back from a platform every quarter.

The honest objections

A credible strategy names what could break it, and EARN has five real failure modes. The first is measurement. Outcome pricing rests on a clean control group living inside the brand’s data, and whoever owns the holdout, the baseline and the attribution effectively owns the invoice. The control must be concurrent and randomised, never a prior period — otherwise a seasonal swing or a market cycle gets mistaken for the vendor’s lift, in either direction. If measurement rights are not agreed up front, every payout becomes a debate — the vendor claims lift, the brand questions incrementality, finance delays payment. Measurement is not an analytics detail; it is the load-bearing wall of Run.

The second is that outcomes are capital- and trust-intensive, a services-shaped business beside a software-shaped one, which must prove itself repeatedly across accounts rather than once in a friendly pilot — a single success proves possibility, a business requires repeatability. The third is surface control: a vendor may concede delivery pricing and still win if it holds the strategic surface, but conceding the volume, data and events that feed the upper rungs is fatal, because the pipe is also the distribution layer for everything above it. Race the pipe to zero and you lose the right to climb.

The fourth is customer trust. Network is tempting because media revenue scales, and dangerous because the inbox is not a billboard; if monetisation degrades attention, the network eats the very asset it monetises. Control of category, frequency, relevance, labelling and exclusions is not optional. The fifth is organisational drag: incumbents resist model migration, and the easiest evasion is to rename old work in new language. That is not EARN. EARN begins only when the unit of value actually changes — when a vendor is paid, on at least one real account, for an outcome rather than a send.

The new scorecard

 The migration shows up most plainly in what gets counted. The old scorecard measures effort and delivery — sends, delivery rate, opens, clicks, complaints, campaign revenue, throughput. Those numbers still matter; they are the telemetry of the Email rung. But they cannot describe the future, because they count what the vendor did, not what the customer’s business gained.

The old scorecard The EARN scorecard
Sends, delivery rate, throughput Action completion inside the email
Open rate, click rate Declared first-party data captured
Complaints, unsubscribes Recovery and reactivation rate
Revenue per campaign Revenue proven above a control
List size Real Reach (the genuinely engaged base)
Cost per send Click Retention Rate; attention yield
Graduation rate between rungs

The last line is the one that tells a vendor whether it is escaping the trap at all. An Email customer who never adopts Act is still a send customer; an Act customer who never reaches Run is still a capability customer. When you change what you count, you change what the business is — the scorecard is not a report on the strategy, it is the strategy made visible.

The staircase of who values you

 There is a simple way to see the whole migration: it is a staircase of who values the vendor. Stay on the ground floor and procurement prices you. Climb to Act and marketing values you. Reach Run and the CFO trusts you. Earn Network and you become a media business. The surface beneath your feet never changes — it is the same owned email relationship the whole way up. What changes is what you are willing to be paid for, and therefore who decides what you are worth.

This is not a call to abandon the send. The Email rung remains the foundation — it funds the system, protects the relationship, supplies the data and grants the distribution that makes every higher rung reachable. The instruction is only to understand it as the floor, not the ceiling. The vendor that refuses to climb will not fail dramatically; it will simply keep renewing, keep supporting, keep delivering, and keep losing altitude until it is absorbed, at an infrastructure multiple, into something larger. The vendor that climbs changes what the email business is for. The old ESP was paid to move messages; the new one is paid to make the owned customer relationship more profitable.

Figure 6 — Two frameworks, one surface. SNR is how a brand decides what to say; EARN is how a vendor decides how to be paid.

**

SNR is the brand’s grammar for what an email should do. EARN is the vendor’s model for how the same surface gets paid.

The next email company will not be paid to send more email. It will be paid to make every owned open worth more.

Thinks 2030

WSJ: “When it comes to nutrition, science is converging on the following recommendations for longevity and health: a diet rich in vegetables, whole grains, nuts and plant-based unsaturated fats, moderate fruit and fish consumption, low red- and processed-meat consumption, and very low ultraprocessed foods and added sugars. While protein consumption gets a lot of attention, research suggests a low but sufficient daily intake of 0.37 gram per pound of body weight, or about 60 grams for a 150-pound person, of which at least 50% is plant-derived, is ideal.”

Paul Kedrosky: “Job loss in the United States is more threatening than anywhere else in the wealthy world. It turns what should be a setback into a potential cascade — income, insurance, mortgage and child care, all at risk at once. Meanwhile, A.I. chief executives won’t stop telling Americans A.I. is coming for them. The technology is a missile aimed at the most fragile part of the American socioeconomic bargain. No wonder Americans are pessimistic about A.I. While better messaging will not fix this, decoupling health care from employment might. Building an unemployment insurance system that replaces income at a meaningful level might. Americans’ pessimism about A.I. is largely rational, about a technology tailor-made to crack their crumbling and antiquated social compact.”

FT: “[China’s] working-age population aged 15 to 64, which peaked at 1bn in the last decade, is due to fall to just 300mn by 2100, according to UN figures — a decline that could prevent China from becoming the world’s biggest economy. Beijing now sees AI-enabled machines as a way out of the demographic trap. Last year the country installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world put together; it also makes most of the world’s humanoids.”

WSJ: “Three questions confront American capitalism at this crossroads, the resolution of which will shape the lives of future generations. Will America deliver economic opportunity to more of its people—or will the gap between the extraordinarily successful and struggling widen? Will America continue building walls to the world—or will it build new bridges? And will America strike the right balance between competition’s creative destruction and the government’s regulatory guard rails—or will it tilt too far in one direction or the other?”

NeoMarketing’s Three Biggest Innovations

A new way to see the customer base, a new surface to act on it, and a new model to get paid for the outcome.

The lens and the surface

Every new category needs more than a product. It needs a new way of seeing the world — because without one, even the best product becomes a feature inside someone else’s frame. NeoMarketing begins with that reframe.

For two decades, marketers have treated the customer base as a list: names, emails, numbers, segments, journeys, campaigns. The list grew, the campaigns multiplied, the channels spread from email to push, SMS, WhatsApp, RCS, apps and paid media — and through all of it the core question never changed: what should we send next? That question is now too small.

  1. A new way to see — Owned Attention and the TAT.

The customer base is not a list; it is a portfolio in motion. Some customers are strong — still listening, browsing, returning. Some are weakening — drifting before the revenue loss shows up. Some are lost — known to the brand, but no longer reachable through ordinary CRM. Across a second axis, some have never bought, some bought once, some repeat. Those two dimensions — transaction depth and attention state — form the map we call the TAT (Transaction-Attention Table), and it turns marketing from a campaign calendar into a customer-state discipline. It shows where value is created, where it is leaking, and where the brand is about to pay twice. A customer sliding from strong to weakening is not merely less engaged; she is becoming future reacquisition cost. A customer who falls into lost is one the brand may soon rent back through Google, Meta or a marketplace. That is AdWaste: paying again for a relationship you already earned. The job is no longer to send more campaigns; it is to move customers to better states — Capture, First, Second, Repeat, Protect, Recover.

Three innovations at three altitudes, the vision above and the Three NEVERs beneath.

  1. A new surface to act — Living Emails.

If the TAT says which state a customer is in, the next question is where the movement happens. For years the answer was “channels” — but channels were treated as pipes, carrying messages written earlier to people whose context had changed by the time they opened. Email suffered most, because it stayed static: composed at send, priced by volume, judged by broken metrics. Brands concluded the inbox had lost relevance. The sharper truth is that customers did not abandon the inbox; they abandoned boring brand emails. A Living Email reverses the logic. It is composed at open: it checks what is true now — availability, price, status, reward balance, the right next step — and decides whether the customer needs Sell, Notify, Digest or Relate. It can show a replenishment to one customer, a useful digest to another, a recovery path to a third, and complete the purchase in the inbox by UPI or a saved card. This turns email from a message into a surface: the owned room where a customer can see status, take a useful action, redeem a reward, reorder, resume a relationship — and leave a trace. WhatsApp is the knock; email is the room.

Together the first two form the operating spine: the TAT tells you what state the customer is in; Living Emails give you the surface to move them.

The model and the horizon

  1. A new model to get paid — Alpha and Progency.

A better lens and a better surface are not enough; martech is full of better tools that became line items rather than shifts. The third innovation changes the commercial model itself. Traditional martech is paid for access, seats, contacts, sends or services; agencies are paid for activity; adtech is paid for reach — and none of them is aligned with the only question a CMO and CFO actually share: did marketing create profit above what would have happened anyway? NeoMarketing is paid for proven profit. Beta is the baseline. Alpha is the verified lift above it, measured against a holdout. Carry is the partner’s share of the Alpha, and only the Alpha — no lift, no payout, no attribution theatre. Progency is the vehicle: the Profits Agency, an accountable operator that runs Recover in the lost column, Protect in the weakening, and Repeat in the strong, and earns on the lift it can prove.

This is where the three click together. The TAT defines the state and the counterfactual; the Living Email creates the intervention at the moment of attention; Alpha pricing proves whether it worked. And because the same surface that creates the action also writes back the result, every state, message, holdout and outcome becomes part of the system’s memory.

The three innovations as one loop — and the memory that compounds with every cycle.

**

The horizon. That memory points somewhere: an Artificial General Marketer. AGM is not the product sold today; it is the direction of travel. A generic AI agent can write copy, choose an audience and optimise a campaign — that will soon be table stakes. The durable advantage is not the agent; it is the operating memory beneath it. Every decision is written back, so the system learns what actually moves a customer — from lost to recovered, weakening to protected, one to repeat — against which counterfactual, at what cost, in which category. That is what the three innovations compound towards.

Why they matter together. The Three NEVERs stop being slogans and become measurable. Never Lose Customers means detecting and protecting attention before revenue disappears. Never Pay Twice means recovering known customers before paying adtech to reacquire them. Never Pay Fixed means paying for proven Alpha, not activity. Marketing has spent years becoming faster, more automated and more channel-rich; NeoMarketing asks it to become accountable — not more sends, journeys or dashboards, but more customers moved to better states, and more profit proven.

The lens without the surface is just analysis. The surface without the model is just product. The model without the lens is just pricing. Together they become the Anti-Martech system: see the leak, act in the owned surface, prove the profit — and let every decision make the next one smarter.

**

NeoMarketing introduces a new way to see the customer base, a new surface to act on it, and a new model to get paid for the outcome — and, with every decision written back, it compounds towards a marketer that can run all three.

Thinks 2029

WSJ: “[Consulting] firms have primarily focused on two alternatives to the hourly model: fixed fee and outcome-based pricing. Under fixed fee, firms guarantee a specific, predictable cost for a defined output or project scope, regardless of the hours spent. Outcome-based pricing generally means consultants get paid if they achieve certain mutually agreed-upon metrics for the client, or a range of outcomes based on over- or underperformance…“The shift towards fixed-fee and value-based billing has put considerable pressure on consultancies to produce more output,” said GPTZero CEO Edward Tian. “But if that comes at the expense of basic fact-checking, the reputational damage for the firms themselves and the clients who commission their work is enormous,” Tian said.”

Business Standard: “AI agents are expected to become a new workforce layer, forcing companies to rethink the traditional fresher hiring pyramid that powered India’s IT and consulting industries for three decades. Many executives have been talking about the pyramid reshaping into a diamond, requiring fewer people at the bottom and an AI-native experienced layer in the middle.”

FT: “Holmes is regularly high on the lists of fictional characters most portrayed on screen, up there with Father Christmas and Dracula. Even if you’ve never read one of the stories, you know who he is. And you’re only going to see more of him, because Conan Doyle’s works are now out of copyright, so the character is anyone’s to play with.”

Mint: “India stands at the threshold of a new investment-led growth phase that could redefine its economic trajectory over the coming decade. Much like the investment boom of 2004-08, the country is again seeing the early stages of a broad-based capital expenditure upcycle. This time, however, the foundations appear stronger, more diversified and strategically aligned with long-term national priorities. At the heart of this emerging cycle is a shift towards domestic capacity building. Policymakers are increasingly focused on reducing dependence on imports in critical sectors such as energy, defence, technology and industrial supply chains. Combined with strong domestic demand, supportive reforms and healthy corporate balance sheets, this strategy is laying the groundwork for a sustained rise in investment and economic growth.”

Email’s Next Act: Outcomes, Not Sends

Published July 22, 2026

1

How Living Emails turn the inbox into Progency’s owned profit surface.

Stop renting back your own customers.

Email did not go quiet because customers left the inbox. It went quiet because the email never changed, got priced on sends, and was measured with instruments that broke — so brands misread a measurement failure as a channel death, and began renting their own customers back through adtech and WhatsApp. Artificial intelligence changes what an email can be: composed at the moment it is opened, it becomes the one owned surface where a brand earns attention, completes the action, and proves the profit. Progency — the Profits Agency — operates that surface for outcomes, not sends.

**

Arun’s inbox

Arun is not thinking about marketing when he picks up his phone at 7:42 on a Tuesday morning. He is clearing the overnight scroll before the day takes over — a bank alert, a school message, a delivery update, a payment reminder — and among them, two emails from brands he has actually bought from.

The first is familiar. The subject line says “Weekend Sale — 30% off.” It arrived three days ago. The products inside are the same for Arun as they are for thousands of other people. One of them is already out of stock in his size. The discount is still live, but nothing in the message knows that he bought a similar product last month, returned one item, and has not browsed the brand since. It is technically personalised, because it says “Hi Arun.” It is behaviourally blind. He swipes past it without a thought.

The second looks ordinary too, until he opens it — because it was sent yesterday, but it was not truly written until this morning. The instant Arun opens it, the message checks what is true now. His refill window is due. The product is in stock. The price is current. His reward balance can be applied. So instead of a generic promotion, it shows the one useful next action: reorder the thing he is about to run out of, delivered Thursday — and pay for it right there, inside the email. There is also a small question: would he prefer the next reminder in 25 days or 30? He taps once. The order is done before the kettle boils.

That last move matters more than it looks. This is a repeat purchase, so the brand already has Arun’s address and his payment details on file. A second order does not need a journey back to an app or a website and a re-login and a re-entered card; it needs a single confirmation. In India, UPI turns that into a one-tap approval. Elsewhere, a stored card does the same. The transaction completes in the place where the attention already is.

The difference is not personalisation. It is timing — the decision, and the payment, made at the moment of open.

The first email was a message. The second was a surface. The first tried to push a campaign into Arun’s morning; the second used the moment of attention to decide what mattered, and let him act on it without leaving. That is the difference between email as brands have used it for twenty years and email as it can now become.

So the question is not whether customers still open the inbox. They do; Arun just did. The question is why almost every brand email still behaves as if nothing has changed since the era of batch campaigns. This series is about that gap — why the old world failed, why WhatsApp rose, why email was misdiagnosed, and how a living, transacting inbox becomes the surface where a brand finally moves from activity to profit.

Key takeaway: One email was written last Tuesday. The other was written the moment Arun opened it.

 2

The portfolio and the leak

Step over to the brand on the other side of Arun’s screen. Most brands still think of their customers as a list — a large one, perhaps segmented and scored and wired to a data platform, but a list all the same: contacts waiting for the next campaign. That model is too small for the economics brands now face. A customer base is not a list. It is a portfolio in motion. Some customers are attentive and active. Some bought once and never formed a habit. Some repeat, but only in one category. Some were valuable and are quietly weakening. Some have gone silent. And some are being celebrated as freshly acquired inside an ad platform — even though the brand had already paid to acquire them once before.

You can lay that portfolio out on a simple map. One axis is how deep the relationship runs — none, one, or repeat purchases. The other is how alive the attention is — strong, weakening, or lost. Those two dimensions matter more than most demographic segments, because they tell you what to do next. We call this map the TAT (Transaction-Attention Table), and for this essay that is all you need to know: it shows where each customer stands, and which way they are sliding.

Across that map a brand has six moves. Capture turns an anonymous or intermediated relationship into a known customer. First moves a known non-buyer to a first purchase. Second turns a first buyer into a repeat one, where habit begins. Repeat grows frequency, category and margin. Protect stops a weakening customer sliding into the lost column. Recover brings a lost customer back before the brand pays to buy them again. These are not campaign names. They are state movements — and the difference is everything. A campaign asks, “what should we send this week?” A state movement asks, “which part of the portfolio is leaking value, where should those customers move to, and how will we prove the lift?” Only the second question is one a CFO can fund.

That is the bridge from Beta to Alpha. Beta is what would have happened anyway — the sales, repeats and returns the current machine would have produced. Alpha is the verified lift above that baseline. It is not attribution theatre; it is measured against a held-out group of customers you deliberately left alone. It is customer-state improvement turned into profit.

And here is where the money leaks. When customers drift rightward — strong to weakening to lost — most brands notice nothing, because nothing in the dashboard reports it. Then, once a customer is well and truly gone, the brand pays an ad platform to win them back: a customer whose email address has been in its own database the whole time. The dashboard may call that growth. The P&L knows it is a tax.

The map: every customer sits somewhere on it, and the six moves push them toward a better state.

Key takeaway: The goal was never more campaigns. It is moving customers to a better state at lower tax than today.

3

Pull, and the cost of getting it back

The best customer is not the one who responds to the cleverest campaign. The best customer is the one who comes back without being chased — who opens the app from habit, searches for the brand by name, reorders when they run low. That is pull, and it is the highest-quality outcome in marketing because it costs the least and taxes the least.

But pull is not spread evenly across the portfolio, and it does not last. A few customers return on their own; most need a nudge; and as attention decays, the force required rises with every step. Picture a ladder of four rungs. On the bottom is pull — free, owned, the customer arriving by themselves. One rung up is prompted pull — a light owned nudge to someone still listening: an email, a push notification, a message. Higher still is earned push — you cannot ask for the sale yet; you have to earn attention back first, through usefulness, recognition or service. And at the top is paid push — renting reach from an ad platform, a marketplace or a retargeting pool.

Every rung up is more expensive than the one below, and less yours. Adtech sits at the very top: the costliest, least owned form of reach there is — and most often aimed at people whose email address you already hold. Most brands blur the rungs. They treat everyone who did not buy this week as fuel for the next campaign or the next retargeting pool, and so a customer who could have been brought back with a near-free owned nudge gets pushed into a high-tax channel instead. That is how AdWaste begins.

So the discipline is the reverse of the instinct. Not “how do we push harder?” but “how do we drag customers back down the ladder, toward pull, so we stop paying to push them at all?” Move paid push back to earned push, earned push back to a prompt, the prompt back to pull. That is what refusing to pay twice for the same customer actually looks like in operation. Push is not a virtue to be maximised. It is a bill — the bill that arrives when pull runs out.

The four rungs of reach. The higher you climb, the more you pay and the less you own.

Key takeaway: Push isn’t the goal. Push is the price of attention you let slip — and adtech is the most expensive way to pay it.

4

The knock and the room

Be fair to WhatsApp, because it earned its place. In India especially it became the natural rail for business messaging, because it sits where people already live. It is phone-native, immediate, two-way, and it feels personal. For a knock — a one-time password, a delivery update, “your table is ready” — nothing beats it. A marketer understands the appeal in ten seconds: the message lands where the customer already looks all day.

So the case for email cannot be nostalgic, and it cannot be “email beats WhatsApp.” That is the wrong fight. The sharper distinction is this: WhatsApp is the knock; email is the room. A knock interrupts, reminds, alerts. A room holds: it has a body, a memory, layout, search, status, content, choice, payment and proof. Seen through the four jobs of an email — Sell, Notify, Digest and Relate — WhatsApp is strong at Notify and can push Sell hard, but it is weak at Digest and Relate, the two that build a relationship rather than spend it. Email can run all four.

And then there is cost, which is no longer a worry on the horizon. Meta has retired the old model where a day’s conversation counted once, and now charges for every marketing message delivered, with no volume discount.  India’s marketing rate rose roughly ten per cent in January 2026. And Meta is rolling out a max-price bidding system for marketing messages — in limited beta from mid-2026, opening more widely later in the year — in which the price to reach each person is set by how valuable the platform judges that person to be.

That does not make WhatsApp bad. It makes it a platform, and platforms follow a pattern: they begin as reach, and over time they segment that reach, filter it, and price it. Read the bidding feature plainly and the pattern is unmistakable — you will soon bid, in an auction, to reach a customer who already gave you their number and their permission, at a price the platform sets. That is the adtech model arriving inside the chat window: pay more, each quarter, for less of the reach you used to get for free.

Email’s economics run the other way. You own the list; the marginal cost of one more useful email is a rounding error; and it is the one channel with a room large enough to carry a relationship and let the customer act inside it. The right architecture is therefore not email or WhatsApp. It is WhatsApp to knock, email to hold: the knock for urgency and service, the room for Digest, Relate, commerce, memory, proof and recovery. A brand that treats WhatsApp as the whole relationship will inherit platform economics. A brand that uses the knock to bring customers into a room it owns keeps control of its attention, its data and its margin.

What each surface can hold. The two jobs that build the relationship are the two WhatsApp cannot run.

Key takeaway: When you have to bid to reach a customer who already gave you permission, that isn’t a chat app any more — it’s adtech in a chat bubble.

5  

Why email never had its moment

If email is this good — owned, cheap, the one channel with a room — why is Arun’s inbox still full of the email he ignores? The lazy answer is that brands did not try hard enough. The real answer is more uncomfortable: the email category was structurally built to under-imagine itself. The incentives, the surface, and the instruments were all wrong at the same time.

Email was priced on sends. An email service provider earns more as you send more — more contacts, more volume, more throughput. So the whole industry optimised the thing it bills for: deliverability, speed, segmentation, list size. It did not optimise the thing that actually matters, which is whether the email was worth opening. A business priced on sends will never build the email that makes sends matter less.

The surface was never the provider’s to change. An email is a block of HTML rendered inside someone else’s software — Gmail, Apple Mail, Outlook. Unlike an ad platform, where the unit, the auction and the measurement all live in one system, the inbox belongs to the mailbox providers. So providers concluded, correctly, that they could not change the client — and quietly stopped trying to change the email. The artifact has barely moved since around 2010.

The one real attempt was a half-door. Interactive email arrived as a glimpse of what the medium could be, but client support stayed uneven: Apple Mail and Outlook never supported it the way Gmail did, so it reached a fraction of the audience and demanded a full ordinary fallback anyway. Marketers heard “not universal” and stopped. The better conclusion — that interactivity is one rendering path, and the real strategy is to compose at open with a graceful fallback — was never drawn.

Then the instrument broke. In 2021 Apple began pre-loading the images in every email before the recipient opened it, which made the open rate — the number the whole industry watched — unreliable. Brands lost the ability to see the attention they were still getting. Their dashboards went dark, and they read the darkness as death, while WhatsApp handed them clean delivery counts and crisp read receipts. The contrast that drove the great migration was never attention versus no attention. It was measured versus unmeasured.

And the thing that would have changed everything was too expensive. Composing a genuinely different, current, relevant email for every reader at the moment they open — not a template with a name dropped in, but a fresh decision — simply could not be done at scale. Until artificial intelligence made it cheap, which happened roughly the day before yesterday.

Put those five together and the industry’s conclusion — “email is dead, move the budget to WhatsApp and ads” — was a misdiagnosis. The patient was not dead. The thermometer was broken, the treatment had not been invented, and the people who could have invented it were paid to do something else entirely.

Key takeaway: Customers didn’t abandon the inbox. They abandoned boring brand emails — and the industry misread that as the inbox dying.

6

Living Emails and SNDR

So here is what changes. The old email is a bet placed in advance. A marketer chooses the segment, the copy, the products, the send time, and then freezes all of it, hoping the context still holds when the customer opens. Often it does not: the price moved, the item sold out, the customer already bought, the moment passed. The email that looked intelligent at send looks stale at open.

A Living Email reverses that logic. It is composed at the moment of open. It checks what is true now — the customer’s state, the live price, what is in stock, the reward balance, the last action, the best next step — and assembles itself for that person, then. It can show Arun one thing at 7:42 and a different thing at 9:30. It can switch from Sell to Relate if his attention has weakened. It can hide an offer he has already taken. This is not personalisation as the word is usually meant — a name in the subject line, a category branch in a journey. It is closer to decisioning: the decision is delayed until the customer actually pays attention.

A surface that makes decisions needs to know which decision to make, and that is the job of SNDR — the four jobs of email. Sell asks for the transaction. Notify carries trust: the order confirmation, the alert, the statement, and it is the one email everyone still opens. Digest earns attention by being useful even when there is nothing to buy. Relate rebuilds the relationship before any ask. Most brands send only Sell and Notify, and then wonder why attention erodes — they only ever spend it, never deposit. A weakening customer does not need a louder discount; that is just spam with good intentions. The rule is simple: the attention state picks the job, and the move you want picks the ask. The Living Email composes both, at open.

One of those mechanics deserves to be pulled to the front, because it is where attention turns into money: paying inside the email itself. When a customer can complete the purchase in the inbox — no detour to an app, no re-login, no re-entered card — the gap between intent and transaction nearly disappears. This is most powerful for repeat purchases, where the brand already holds the address and the payment details, so a reorder is a single confirmation rather than a checkout. In India, UPI makes that a one-tap approval; elsewhere, a stored card does the same. The inbox stops being where you announce the offer and becomes where the sale actually closes. The other mechanics — small interactive units, visible rewards, a status line, a written-back record — matter too, but they are the vocabulary. The point is that the email stops being a message and becomes a surface you operate.

Attention state picks the job; the move picks the ask. The Living Email composes it at open.

Key takeaway: A static email is a prediction made at send. A Living Email is a decision made at open.

 7

The Living Emails Factory

A fair objection: if Living Emails are so obviously better, why does almost nobody make them? Because they are hard to make. One interactive, always-current, composed-at-open email today means creative, code, an interactive version and an ordinary fallback, testing across a dozen clients, plumbing into live product and payment data, approvals, a held-out control group, and a measurement setup to read the result. That is weeks of work for a single email.

Placing an ad on Meta or Google, by contrast, takes minutes: choose an audience, drop in creative, set a budget, go. The platform carries the production system, the auction, the measurement and the feedback loop. Email never had an equivalent. So adtech won part of the budget not because it was better, but because it was easier, and brands defaulted to static templates and repeated journeys — the old email survived because it was easy to make, not because it was good.

The Living Emails Factory is the missing production system. Its job is to make the advanced email as easy to create as the old one. A marketer — or a Progency operator — chooses the customer state, the move, the guardrails, the product feed and the outcome. The Factory generates the email, picks the SNDR job, assembles the right blocks, handles the interactive version and the fallback, wires in the live data and the in-email payment, sets up the holdout, and writes back what happened so the next email is smarter than the last. The brand does not have to become an email-technology shop; it describes the outcome and the Factory produces the surface.

This is where a martech company can own the category. Not by crafting the single cleverest email — anyone can do that once, by hand — but by building the authoring and operating environment that makes the clever email routine, repeatable, and as easy to launch as a campaign on an ad platform. The next email company will not win by sending cheaper or adding an AI copywriter to an old tool. It will win by removing the friction that kept the better email from ever being built.

The Factory turns a long wish list into one production system, from surface to proof.

Key takeaway: Composing a Living Email should be as easy as placing an ad on Meta or Google. Make that true, and the reason brands fled to adtech disappears.

8

The two future plays

Once the inbox becomes a surface customers genuinely open — daily, by choice, because the email is worth their sixty seconds — two things become possible that no ordinary send channel can do. But they must be sequenced with discipline, because getting the order wrong is fatal.

The first is that earned attention can be monetised. Not banners stuffed into emails, which would poison the very thing that makes the surface valuable, but action-led, relevant, brand-safe units placed inside a surface the customer already values: a partner benefit inside a financial digest, a sample inside a weekly training email. This is the exact inversion of adtech. In adtech the brand pays a platform to reach customers; here the brand that has earned the attention is paid for it, and that revenue can fund still more useful email.

The second is that earned attention can be pooled. When many brands hold genuine, opted-in inbox attention, those surfaces can cooperate — one brand’s living inbox helping another reach or recover a customer before either goes to the auction, through a one-tap subscribe, a trial, a sample or a recovery path. It is the cooperative alternative to rented reach, built out of owned surfaces.

But the sequence is the strategy. Earn attention first. Monetise it later. Network it last. A dead inbox has no inventory to sell and no attention worth pooling; monetise before you have earned the open and the customer simply stops opening, leaving nothing to monetise at all. These are the high ceiling of the idea, not the day-one pitch — the reason the surface, built properly, compounds in value instead of decaying like a list.

The order is not a preference. It is a constraint.

Key takeaway: Earn attention first. Monetise it later. Network it last — get the order wrong and there’s nothing left to monetise.

9

Progency: the Profits Agency

A better email surface, left alone, becomes just another feature — another demo a busy CRM team never fully uses. Progency changes the commercial frame so that cannot happen. It does not sell email software. It operates the surface and is paid on the profit it can prove. Progency is a Profits Agency: an accountable operating layer that sits after the CRM and before the auction, takes responsibility for defined customer states, runs the interventions, measures against a holdout, and earns only on verified lift.

It runs three mandates, one per attention state, and each is really a bet against a different counterfactual — a different answer to “what would this customer have done anyway?” Recover is for customers gone dark; the counterfactual is adtech, the money the brand would otherwise spend to buy them back. The email begins with connection, then recovered attention, and only then conversion. This is the wedge, because it attacks the most expensive leak and the one almost nobody else fixes. Protect is for valuable customers whose attention is cooling; the counterfactual is drift — left alone they become lost and later expensive to reacquire — and the email is Digest and Relate, arresting the slide before it is irreversible. Grow is for the attentive; the counterfactual is a slower next purchase and margin left on the table, and the email is Sell and Notify made live — the right next purchase, completed in the inbox via UPI or a saved card, with the customer suppressed from paid retargeting because they are already reachable for free.

Three mandates, one per attention state — each a bet against a different counterfactual.

The model is simple enough for a CFO. Beta is what would have happened anyway. Alpha is the verified lift above the holdout. Carry is Progency’s share of the Alpha, and only the Alpha — no lift, no fee. The old service-provider invoice was tied to usage; the old agency retainer to activity; the adtech bill to rented reach. Progency’s payout is tied to profit improvement, full stop.

This is also why the surface has to be a Living Email and not a send. Because the email is composed at open and every action — including the payment — is written back, the surface both produces the intervention and records its trace. It knows what state the customer was in, what was shown, what was held out, what action was taken, and what revenue followed. That is the operating memory a competitor cannot copy by bolting an AI copywriter onto an old tool. Email stops being a line item priced by volume and becomes the place where marketing finally proves its profit, one customer at a time.

The surface produces the action and writes back the proof — Beta, Alpha, Carry, in one loop.

Key takeaway: Email stops being something you pay for by the send. It becomes the surface you pay for by the profit.

10

Maya’s dashboard

We began with Arun, the customer. We end with Maya, the marketer who runs this surface for her brand.

Maya’s old dashboard was busy: sends, opens, clicks, click-to-open rate, attributed revenue, deliverability, unsubscribes, journey performance, WhatsApp delivery, retargeting return. Everything moved, and yet the one question that mattered stayed hard to answer — did marketing make the customer base more valuable, or did it just run more activity through more channels? It measured effort, not effect. And much of it went half-dark the day Apple stopped reporting opens.

Her new dashboard begins with the portfolio. How many customers are strong, weakening and lost. How many moved from one purchase to repeat. How many weakening customers were protected before they slipped away. How many lost customers were recovered before adtech bought them back. How much paid push was avoided, and how much Alpha was generated above the holdout. Her Monday question used to be “what campaign do we send this week?” It is now “which customer state must improve this week — and what will move it?” That single change in the question is the whole change in the discipline; it is the difference between managing campaigns and managing a portfolio, and it changes her conversation with the CFO from opens and clicks to recovered customers, protected customers and profit above baseline.

Not effort, but effect: state movement, Alpha above holdout, and the waste avoided.

This closes the loop that began with Arun. The Living Email he acted on was not a clever message; it was a small state movement. He moved from attention to action, and paid in the inbox. The email wrote back the trace. The holdout proved the lift. The dashboard showed the Alpha. Maya did not have to argue that email mattered. She proved it.

**

Summary

The arc, in three acts

Act I — why email went quiet. It was not the inbox that died. The customer base was treated as a list; pull decayed into paid push; WhatsApp won the knock; and email was misdiagnosed because the surface stagnated while the measurement broke.

Act II — the new surface. A static email is a prediction made at send; a Living Email is a decision made at open. SNDR governs which decision, in-email payment closes the sale, and a Factory makes the whole surface as easy to produce as an ad — removing the friction that sent brands to the auction in the first place.

Act III — outcomes. Progency operates the surface and is paid on proven Alpha, across Recover, Protect and Grow. Email stops being a cost measured in volume and becomes the place where profit is earned and proven — before brands rent their customers back from the auction.

The whole picture on one slide — from the leak to proven profit, and the future that compounds. (Two perspectives)

Key takeaway: Email’s next act isn’t sending more. It’s earning attention, composing action, and proving profit — before brands rent their own customers back from the auction.

Thinks 2028

WSJ: “Meloni’s government is on track to outlast all previous ones since the fall of the fascist regime in 1945.”

Ashu Garg: “The model is not the moat. It never was. Intelligence is not a winner-take-all market. Its frontier is also jagged: there is no single frontier but many, and a different lab will lead in each. Instead, the real value for most companies will come from the application layer, through their proprietary data and workflows—the specific knowledge that sits within companies and industries, the decision traces and context graphs that can’t be replicated. This is where the product comes in: the harness plus the model, wired into a specific customer’s environment that drives a business outcome. A product can turn a model into something durable: a workflow, a habit, a distribution channel, a customer relationship, a store of usage data. The model remains central, but it becomes the replaceable engine inside something that is much harder to replace.”

Naushad Forbes: “I have spent over 40 years studying how nations and firms become innovative. Building technical capability is a hard slog; it has to be learnt step by step. If I think of our own firm, we started investing significantly in R&D in 1991 to develop new products different from everyone else. We had a well-qualified team, but one primarily focused on indigenisation. It took us three years before we got our first moderately successful product out, five or six years before we learnt enough to count on a flow of innovative new products, year on year. The results show in success, in India and overseas. But we are still learning: Focused now on deepening technical capability with closer connection with academic research, in India and overseas.”

FT: “Economic growth isn’t everything for everyone, but it turns out it’s pretty close. It has delivered remarkable progress on exactly the benchmarks that its critics prioritise — recently even on environmental impact. The problem facing rich and poor alike today is that we don’t have enough of it, not that we’ve had too much.”

Email’s New Architecture Redux: From SNR to SNDR

Published July 21, 2026

Why brands need Digest emails — and why the full map is now Sell, Notify, Digest, Relate

SNR was the first map. SNDR is the fuller one.

Earlier in this series, I described email’s new architecture as SNR — Sell, Notify, Relate. It was a useful simplification: three jobs an email can do. Sell converts demand. Notify completes service. Relate builds the relationship. But as the series went on — through the attention account, composition at open, and the Living Email Factory — SNR turned out to be helpful but incomplete. One job was missing, and it is the one that does the most to rebuild attention. The missing letter is D: Digest.

The Need for Brand Digest Emails

A Digest is not a newsletter in the media-company sense. It is a recurring, useful, category-curation email in which the brand is not the subject but the editor. A securities firm sends a morning markets read. A travel brand sends fare, destination and visa updates. A beauty brand sends seasonal ingredient notes. A grocery brand sends recipes and what’s in season. None of these is a pitch, a confirmation, or a note about the relationship.

That is what makes Digest its own category, and the test is simple: whose world is the email about? Sell, Notify and Relate are all, in the end, about the brand — its offer, its service, its bond with you. A Digest is about the customer’s world — the markets, destinations, ingredients, money, health or food they care about, curated by a brand that happens to know the category well. Relate earns attention through relationship; Digest earns it through usefulness.

The two also produce differently, and that is the real reason Digest cannot simply be folded into Relate. A Relate email is built from the brand’s own relationship signals. A Digest is built from the world outside — which means it needs sources, a point of view, and, in regulated categories like broking, insurance or health, a governance layer of source allow-lists and a compliance mode. Different intent, different inputs, different guardrails: that is a category, not a variant.

The Full Picture: SNDR

So the full architecture is SNDR. Sell is the commercial ask — offers, promotions, the classic brand email. Notify is the service layer — confirmations, alerts, statements; trust-heavy and first-party. Digest is category curation — the customer’s world, edited by the brand. Relate is the relationship — welcome, recognition, rituals, recovery, the NeoMails.

SNDR splits into two product moves: upgrade the Sell and Notify you already send, and create the Digest and Relate you’re missing. The two new ones are the deposits — and the only surfaces where the later ad economics belong.

The split does two kinds of work. First, it tells brands what to do with each. Sell and Notify are the emails they already send: upgrade those — make them current, composed at open, interactive where it helps. Digest and Relate are the emails most brands are missing: create those. As I put it earlier in the series, “a static email is a prediction made at send; a living email is a decision made at open” — and the emails most worth making live are the two that don’t yet exist.

Second, SNDR maps cleanly onto the attention account. The thesis of this series was that “martech never built an attention account; adtech became the overdraft.” In that ledger, Sell spends attention — every ask is a withdrawal. Notify protects trust but rarely builds a habit. Digest and Relate are the deposits — they give a customer a reason to open when there is nothing to buy and nothing to confirm. They are also the only two surfaces where the later economics belong: habit-forming and non-transactional, they are where ActionAds can ride and ZeroCPM can emerge, once the attention is earned. Sell is already the ad; Notify must stay first-party. The order holds — earn the attention first, monetise it later.

SNR named three jobs. SNDR names the two that build the asset.

*

The inbox does not need better promotions and better alerts. It needs the two emails brands forgot to send — a useful Digest, and a Relate worth opening.

Thinks 2027

WSJ: “Mr. [Harvey] Mansfield sees in America a “paradox”: The U.S. is both a young, brash nation and the world’s oldest continuous democracy. “We’re a country that needs to renew itself every four years, or find out who should run it,” he says. “It has, within itself, a youth and a maturity. We change our president, which means the entire government, more or less.” America is “an exemplar of something important, which is a successful republic. But it needs to be continually refreshed, as Machiavelli said all regimes need to be.” Mr. Mansfield says America is “exceptional because it accepts the truth of that claim.” We always itch to “go back to our beginnings and see what it was that first made us excited and fresh, and made us seek to be an example to the world.” That can become “a form of bullying,” in which Americans “demand that other peoples do what we advise. And what we advise may not necessarily be for their good, but mainly for ours.” By the same token, “great claims are imputed to us by others, and our failure to live up to them is taken as corruption.””

NYTimes: “Z.ai is on the cutting edge of a wave of powerful but inexpensive A.I. from China that is challenging the lock that OpenAI, Anthropic and Google have had on the industry. Six of the models now on the A.I. leaderboard were developed in China. Z.ai’s new model, GLM-5.2, arrived just as U.S. businesses realized that they had to find ways to cut down on how much they were spending on A.I. It also landed when executives in Silicon Valley were becoming worried that the Trump administration was leaning toward regulating the technology.”

FT: “America’s attractions run deep. It has the best pool of entrepreneurs and US businesses account for just over half of the world’s value creation, or profits in excess of the cost of capital. America also has what Scott Bessent, its Treasury secretary, called this week, the world’s “deepest, most dynamic markets”. Since 2009, its banks, asset managers and traders have grown more dominant globally, and funnel savings into its markets. Citadel Securities, which executes a third of share trading in the US market, says activity is “astronomical”. Larry Fink, the boss of BlackRock, the largest asset manager, had called US capital markets a “juggernaut”.”

The Generalist: “Not every founder was ostracized quite as totally as [Henry] Luce. Culture, class, geography, and even his manner of speaking conspired to separate him from his peers. But the experience of being an outsider, of being profoundly out of place, is the most common trait observed from studying the formations of great entrepreneurs. It is also among the most acute, contributing to a desire to prove one’s relative worth and breeding a sense of specialness, even if reflected through a dark mirror. Perhaps every adolescent feels some moment of difference; this is the beginning of selfhood. But not everyone experiences it quite like this.”

What Changes When Emails Are Composed at Open, Not Send

Published July 20, 2026

A static email is a prediction made at send. A living email is a decision made at open.

Static to Living

Every email you have ever received was finished before you opened it. A static email is a prediction: at send time, the brand guesses what will matter — the price, the offer, the status, the recommendation — freezes it, and hopes it still holds when you happen to look. Often it doesn’t. The offer expired, the item sold out, the order already arrived, the market moved.

Composing at open inverts this. The shell is sent; the content is assembled the instant the reader opens it. A living email is not a prediction but a decision made at the moment of open — which means it can finally tell the truth (it reflects the world as it is at open, not at send), it can act (the reader does the thing in place, instead of being sent elsewhere to do it), and it can remember (what the reader does writes back, so the next email knows more).

This is not the past decade of cute AMP tricks — the calculators and the spin-the-wheels. That was interactivity for its own sake. This is the email becoming current, useful and alive. What follows are the seven capabilities that only open-time composition unlocks, and around thirty places where the shift from static to living changes everything. (Where live rendering is supported, with a graceful fallback everywhere else.)

Composed at send, the email is fixed the moment it leaves — and decays in the gap before it’s read. Composed at open, the shell waits and the content is assembled when the reader arrives, true at open.

At open, an email stops being a message and becomes seven things a static one never could: current, never out of step with reality, a companion across a whole journey, composed for one person, aware of the moment, actionable in place, and able to remember.

1  ·  Current — the email is true now

The values shown are live as of the moment of open, not the moment of send.

Broking / wealth.  Static: “Markets update — as of 9am,” already wrong by lunch.  Living: the index, your watchlist and your portfolio value, accurate the second you open.

Travel.  Static: “Fares from $199” — repriced or sold out by the time you tap.  Living: the live fare and seats-left for your route, refreshed at open.

Sport.  Static: “Big match this weekend!” opened after full time.  Living: the live score before kickoff, the result and highlights after — depending on when you open.

Commerce / D2C.  Static: “Sale ends tonight!” listing items already gone.  Living: only what’s in stock in your size, at today’s price, with an honest “3 left.”

2  ·  Never out of step — the email is never stale, never embarrassing

It reflects events that happened after it was sent, and quietly drops anything that has gone wrong.

Logistics.  Static: “Your order has shipped” — opened the day after it arrived.  Living: “Delivered yesterday — rate it?” or “12 minutes away,” matching reality at open.

Banking.  Static: “Your bill is due” — already paid, but the email doesn’t know.  Living: “Paid, thank you” or “Due in 2 days,” reflecting the real balance.

Retail / promo.  Static: “Use code SAVE20” — expired three days ago; the link 404s.  Living: expired codes, dead links and sold-out items simply never appear.

Real estate.  Static: “New listings!” — half already sold, prices stale.  Living: only homes still available, at the current asking price; sold ones quietly drop off.

3  ·  A companion — one email serves the whole journey

The same email, reopened across a journey, shows a different, current thing each time.

Airlines.  Static: a flight confirmation, opened once and done.  Living: the same email becomes a travel companion — gate, boarding status, seat, delay, baggage belt — different every time you reopen it.

Hotels.  Static: a booking confirmation.  Living: reopened, it carries check-in status, an upgrade offer, breakfast timing, a spa slot and late checkout, across the stay.

Events.  Static: “You’re registered.”  Living: one email holding the live agenda, your seat, the QR ticket, speaker changes and session feedback, all day.

Healthcare.  Static: “Appointment on Thursday.”  Living: reopened, it shows the live queue, the doctor’s delay, your prep checklist, and the report when it’s ready.

4  ·  Composed for one person — one send, a different email each

The same campaign renders uniquely per reader by identity, history and entitlement — not pre-built variants.

Loyalty.  Static: “Members get rewards!” — generic.  Living: your tier, your points, the expiry countdown, and the reward you’re 200 points from.

Insurance.  Static: “Renew your policy” — which one?  Living: your specific policy, premium, renewal date, claim history and a coverage-gap check.

B2B SaaS.  Static: “See what’s new” → log in to find out.  Living: this account’s seats, usage against plan, onboarding gaps and renewal date, composed for the reader.

Telecom.  Static: “Upgrade your plan!”  Living: your data left this cycle, the best-fit plan for how you actually use it, your bill date and roaming status.

5  ·  Aware of the moment — the email adapts to the open itself

Content responds to the open moment’s conditions — time, place, device, weather.

Fashion / apparel.  Static: “Shop the new range.”  Living: rain at your location surfaces the waterproofs; a heatwave surfaces the linen.

EV / mobility.  Static: “Charging offer inside.”  Living: the nearest charger, its live queue and tariff, and whether it fits your route.

Food delivery.  Static: “Order lunch now” — sent at 11, opened at 3.  Living: what’s open right now, the live delivery time, and your usual — whenever you open.

6  ·  Actionable in place — the task finishes in the inbox

The reader completes the action inside the email — no click-out, no context change, no drop-off.

Pharmacy.  Static: “Time to refill” → app → login → reorder.  Living: confirm the refill from live stock and pick a delivery slot, in the email.

Auto.  Static: “Service due” → call the dealership.  Living: book a live service slot, see the estimate, choose pickup — in place.

Jobs / careers.  Static: a job alert → portal → re-login → apply.  Living: roles still open, your match score, and a one-tap “interested,” inline.

Feedback / CX.  Static: “How did we do?” → survey link → abandoned.  Living: rate it and add a line, in the email, in seconds.

7  ·  Able to remember — the email learns, so the next one is smarter

What the reader does writes back, so the next send already knows more.

Beauty.  Static: the same promo for everyone.  Living: it remembers your skin concern and the weather, and the routine it builds adapts each time.

Edtech.  Static: “This week’s lessons.”  Living: your progress, your weak topics from the last quiz, and practice picked from what you just got wrong.

Retail.  Static: re-asking your size every single time.  Living: “We remembered: size S, leave at door” — right, and correctable.

Retention.  Static: a churn score in a database nobody sees.  Living: a drifting customer’s silence is itself the signal, captured the moment it happens.

**

The pattern across all seven is one inversion, repeated: the email is finished when it’s opened, not when it’s sent. A static email sends a message; a living email opens a moment — current, personal, actionable, and true. These capabilities cluster exactly where brands have the least today: the Digest and Relate emails of SNDR, where the inbox stops asking and starts being useful. (Sell was always an ask; Notify simply becomes accurate.)

The inbox doesn’t need more sends. It needs fewer frozen messages — and more moments that are alive when opened.