Bryan Caplan: “The bigger question is how AI will change the labor market itself. As a general rule, new technologies take decades to realize their full potential. The first true trans-Atlantic phone call wasn’t placed until 1956, almost eighty years after the invention of the phone. E-commerce was technically feasible in the mid-90s, but local malls still endure. But we should still expect AI to slowly disrupt a wide range of industries, including CS itself. This will, in turn, slowly alter students’ career aspirations. As an economist, I scoff at the idea that AI will permanently disemploy the population. Human wants are unlimited, and human skills are flexible. Agriculture was humanity’s dominant industry for millennia; yet when technology virtually wiped out agricultural jobs, we still found plenty of new work to do instead. I do not, however, scoff at the idea that AI could drastically reduce employment in CS over the next two decades. Humans will specialize in whatever AI does worst.”
Sand Hill points to a report by Allied Advisers on “Flavors of SaaS”: “While Horizontal SaaS companies generally have larger TAM, Vertical SaaS companies can be more capital efficient and have better operational metrics and capital efficiency, making them better suited for middle-market funds. While there are category leaders in Horizontal SaaS, there are also a lot of opportunities in building Vertical SaaS companies which can become leaders in their own sectors. In today’s environment where capital efficient growth is being keenly measured, Vertical SaaS companies offer compelling opportunities for investors and buyers.”
Rodney Zemmel: “AI is the thing everyone is talking about right now—or, more specifically, generative AI—so large language models are the thing that everyone is talking about. They’re amazing. They pass the Arthur C. Clarke test of technology that’s indistinguishable from magic. Think about it as a business enterprise, not as a consumer writing fabulous birthday poems, but how you’re going to get value from it. That’s actually a bit of a risk that put us back in the digital of 2018, where there’s going to be pilot proliferation across the company, and everybody’s trying things, and so on. For a complicated enterprise, a company, or a big organization to get value from digital transformations, we actually think you need to start from a real view of where the value is and a road map around how you’re going to capture that value for your business. You need to think through a whole technology architecture that isn’t just the model.”
Shane Parrish: “The Feynman Technique is the most effective method to unlock your potential and develop a deep understanding. Richard Feynman was not only a Nobel laureate in Physics but also a master of demystifying complex topics. His key learning insight: complexity and jargon often mask a lack of understanding. Feynman’s learning technique comprises four key steps: 1. Select a concept to learn. 2. Teach it to a child. 3. Review and refine your understanding. 4. Organize your notes and revisit them regularly.”
It may not be appropriate to consider the rate of evolving new products and systems the same over time. We can travel from India to the US and back in a couple of days now whereas it took weeks in the olden days. We can call someone and talk instantly even if the other person is not at home. Thus, new ideas, inventions, products, and systems evolve and emerge at lightning speeds relative to their glacial movements of the past. All this is possible because there are many nations and businesses competing to reach the market with their ideas converted into products. There are numerous scientists and innovators yearning to accomplish. There are also many entrepreneurs hoping to become unicorns. Of course, the nations are competing to preserve their -isms by developing their defense systems. The current information dissemination is so fast that people know of new inventions and discoveries in real time. Some alert nations get information by the traditional methods of “beg, borrow, or steal ” while the rate of execution of these methods has increased manifold.
Under such a scenario, if a nation decides to stand still or depends on the old fashioned methods, it only moves backwards.
A time might come when AI systems and robotics will be so advanced that humans have to be extremely smart enough to control and direct them. They can do everything from producing all manner of products for us and delivering them while we take rest and enjoy the shows using the novel systems. The concept of unemployment will be forgotten and nearly one hundred percent enjoyment is cherished. That will be the heaven on the earth.
However, there is a big roadblock in this scenario. There are humans who do not think of everyone enjoying the fruits of technology. They like to control other humans while only they enjoy all the comforts of technology. Such perception makes them crave for control of the technology and it leads to enslaving others using AI and robotics.
Will humans become wiser and share all the benefits that accrue from technologies?