Thinks 2042

NYTimes: “One of humanity’s oldest disciplines and one of its newest inventions feel distinctly made for each other. A.I. presents a fresh way for philosophers to ask ancient questions, and its own set of new ones that they are uniquely trained to engage with: of truth and belief and knowledge (epistemologists); of reasoning (logicians); of mind and consciousness (philosophers of mind and consciousness). For ethicists, in particular, A.I. is a bonanza. How should models act toward us? How should humans interact with them? Where would purpose come from in a post-work society?”

Ben Evans: “There are only two things you can say with certainty about token prices: we’re in a supply crunch, and this is unstable. All of the variables are in play, and the market will get shaken out over the next few years to arrive at a new equilibrium. Right now we have a lot of frantic analysis of ‘time to power’, but the question at the end of that remains whether the foundation models have sustainable pricing power, strategic leverage and value capture, or whether they become low-margin commodity infrastructure providers. At the moment, I think every dynamic we can see points to the latter. …The current market dynamics point to a future in which, as today’s supply crunch eases, frontier models move towards becoming commodity infrastructure, with all of the value built on top, and for a different outcome, something needs to happen that we don’t see yet.”

Akash Prakash: “India’s innovation problem is largely a private-sector large business problem. The only way to kickstart this is to enhance competitive intensity across sectors. New players have to enter, whether they be startups or foreign players. Ease of business reforms remains critical to achieve this. Only when their profits and growth are threatened will our largest companies react. Alternatively, we need to see a big research success, something that can deliver billions of dollars in cash flow. This will be a wake-up call for corporate India and undoubtedly cause heartburn and force comparisons. The asymmetry of returns will be visible. We need more innovation in India, and it is not the fault of the government or markets; large Indian companies have to look inwards. We investors have to disproportionately reward R&D, then our companies will listen. In today’s world, anyone not innovating will ultimately fade away.”

FT: “In a world where it is often hard to put ourselves in the shoes of someone else, the challenge of explaining the world to a 10-year-old, or designing a jar that an octogenarian can open, is sometimes just a prompt to do a better job of what we were trying to do in the first place.”

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Rajesh Jain

An Entrepreneur based in Mumbai, India.