Noah Smith: “Ireland is still riding high on the success of its Celtic Tiger era. A country that was once subjugated and looked down upon by its neighbors is now a beacon of wealth and high-tech skill. And I think this teaches us a crucial lesson about national development. If you went back to 1923 and asked people whether Ireland would be richer than the UK in a hundred years, how many of them do you think would have said yes? How many would have laughed in your face? And yet here we are, a century later, and that’s the reality. Now pull out a map of the world, and pick out some countries that most people think don’t have what it takes to get rich. Where do you think those countries will be in 100 years?”
Mustafa Suleyman: “As we consider that future, we should be careful not to overstate things. Too much hype can be damaging—especially to businesses—as the economy lurches back and forth between bouts of enthusiasm and disillusionment. I believe AI will be one of the most significant transformations we’ll witness this century; in the blink of a civilizational eye we’re already seeing it replicate such fundamental things as human creativity and reasoning. I also know, however, that we must properly describe its future without rhetorical flourishes. A hype cycle only undermines long-term consumer and business confidence. Serious AI researchers and companies neither want nor need it. Keep this in mind, and the picture with AI becomes clear. Zoom in and some of the details are overblown. Zoom out, and you’ll find that we’re on the brink of significant change.”
Economist: “People in organisations have always worked in concert with others. But the emphasis on teams is growing, for a variety of reasons. Technology has made the sharing of ideas and information easier, while hybrid working has made it more vital…The software industry has spread the gospel of teams—agile, scrums, OKRs and all the rest of it—into all kinds of places. Teams, it turns out, are better at solving complex problems, according to a recent paper by Abdullah Almaatouq of the MIT Sloan School of Management. Research also suggests that people have a greater attachment to their work group than to their organisation; you’re less likely to go for lunch with a logo.”
Andy Mukherjee: “Now comes the next big thing: A move toward integrating disparate apps so that one day a single QR will work anywhere in the world. Brazil’s Pix QR, India’s UPI QR, Indonesia’s QRIS, the Philippines’ QR Ph, and Singapore’s SGQR are all successful examples of the basic idea that a merchant shouldn’t have to display scores of barcodes to accept funds from different sources. A single image ought to be compatible with every consumer app and wallet. To that, add a second objective. Foreign tourists must be able to whip out their smartphones and settle bills just like locals. National payment systems such as India’s are aggressively entering into agreements that will allow other countries to use them. The major economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines — are linking their QRs for the 18 million intra-regional tourists who spend around $19 billion annually. Assuming that it is able to capture 15% to 20% of transactions, ASEAN QR would facilitate $4 billion in consumer expenditure and inspire the rest of the world, according to the Boston Consulting Group.”
Dani Rodrik: “As the economic historian Marvin Suesse argues, economic nationalism therefore wavers between two somewhat contradictory impulses: the temptation to restrict economic exchange with other countries in order to advance national independence; and the desire to expand and leverage international links in the service of national economic growth and development. In recent times, no one has done a better job of combining these impulses than the ‘developmental’ states of East Asia. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and most spectacularly China have all relied on a mix of policies that both encourage global economic integration and selectively protect key industries. Each shaped its own economic future through a wide range of industrial policies—directed credit, subsidies, tariff and non-tariff barriers, and local-content and other requirements for foreign investors—that helped it develop new areas of economic competence. These were not just economic programmes. They were national projects of renewal, aimed at catching up with the West.”
