Rajesh Jain

Swarm Intelligence

As I was thinking about the coordinated actions of many, I remembered reading about swarms many years ago – the idea of distributed, collective intelligence. It was this 2001 article from Harvard Business Review that had interested me in swarms. An excerpt: “Consider termites. Individually, they have meager intelligence. And they work with no supervision. Yet collectively they build mounds that are engineering marvels, able to maintain ambient temperature and comfortable levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide even as the nest grows. Indeed, for social insects teamwork is largely self-organized, coordinated primarily through the interactions of individual colony members. Together they can solve difficult problems (like choosing the shortest route to a food source from myriad possible pathways) even though each interaction might be very simple (one ant merely following the trail left by another). The collective behavior that emerges from a group of social insects has been dubbed “swarm intelligence.””

In other words, ‘spontaneous order’ or ‘emergent order’.

More from Wikipedia: “Swarm intelligence (SI) is the collective behaviour of decentralized, self-organized systems, natural or artificial. The concept is employed in work on artificial intelligence. The expression was introduced by Gerardo Beni and Jing Wang in 1989, in the context of cellular robotic systems. SI systems consist typically of a population of simple agents … interacting locally with one another and with their environment. The inspiration often comes from nature, especially biological systems. The agents follow very simple rules, and although there is no centralized control structure dictating how individual agents should behave, local, and to a certain degree random, interactions between such agents lead to the emergence of “intelligent” global behaviour, unknown to the individual agents.”

Another example that is instructive is John Conway’s Game of Life. The rules are simple. Order emerges but the outcome of the playing of the game is hard to predict. The outcome is not determined by any subset of the players of the game but from the interactions of all of the players.

The HBR article summarised the key attributes of swarms: “flexibility (the colony can adapt to a changing environment), robustness (even when one or more individuals fail, the group can still perform its tasks), and self-organization (activities are neither centrally controlled nor locally supervised).”

In politics, the recent examples of the Tea Party in the US and Occupy Wall Street movements come to mind – largely leaderless swarms of people coordinating action to achieve a specific purpose. Digital tools have amplified the power of individuals to come together. Hierarchies of WhatsApp and Signal groups, Twitter accounts, Facebook messages, online bulletin boards like Reddit can now supercharge message distribution and engagement to reduce latency between ideas and actions.

There is one important difference between the behaviour of termites and swarms, and on the other hand that of the farmers’ and Wall Street groups’ actions. The former don’t have a defined specific purpose or goal; the latter have a goal that clearly motivates them to act.

Postscript: Many as One

The past week has been a tumultuous one in India’s capital as protesting farmers upped the ante with their actions on Republic Day. Riding tractors, they drove into Delhi and clashed with the police at multiple places. The peace was broken and positions will undoubtedly harden on all sides going forward. Even as all this was happening, there was a different sort of organised and coordinated action taking place in the US financial markets. A large group of individual traders rode up prices of a few stocks (primarily GameStop) and roiled the world of some of the large hedge funds who had shorted these stocks. As individual farmers went up against the might of the state in India, digitally savvy retail traders took on the biggies of Wall Street. The common theme was of individuals organising themselves and coordinating their actions.

Social media platforms and messaging apps are the instruments the masses use to unite and act in ways that were impossible earlier. The collective becomes greater than the sum of the individuals.

The story of GameStop is especially interesting because it illustrates how digital technology has changed the game and levelled the playing field for the weaker players. Whatever be the eventual outcomes of the farmers’ protests and the GameStop matter, there is much to learn for us on how to make United Voters of India (UVI) a success.

I had written earlier: “Taking on existing political parties is non-trivial. Recreating the organisational system they have built over decades is not easy. If disruption needs to be done, digital is the only alternative. UVI needs to work like a new-generation startup that is taking on the heavyweight incumbents in politics… UVI should become a digital non-party platform targeting the blue ocean of non-aligned and non-voters (NANVs) with an agenda crafted around principles for prosperity and wealth creation to attract at least 1 out of every 10 Indians. This is how citizens can seed the political revolution India needs to engineer the economic transformation that creates a Nayi Disha for the next generation.“

If the two-thirds of India’s eligible voters that constitute the NANVs can organise themselves and act in unison, it will be possible to bring about political change in India – not just determine the winners and losers, but actually be the winners. The key change is to use coordinated action within the existing rules of the game to bring about the desired change. It is not a change in the rules but in the strategy that the players evolve that change the outcome of the game.

Let’s begin by looking at what happened in the US in its financial markets – it is a fascinating study because it is end-to-end digital. We will then consider what could be done in India to make the Indian Revolution a reality.

Ghar Lao Lakshmi

The final question to address is: what can be foundational principles that can attract voters to UVI? Atanu Dey has written about “Pretty Good Principles” in his book, “Transforming India.” The key ideas are based on limited government, individual rights and the relationship between the individual and government. These are good starting points. I had also outlined a set of prosperity principles and starting solutions in the Nayi Disha manifesto. What is common to both (and to nations that have created wealth for their people) is the idea of economic freedom.

Here is a preamble I wrote recently – capturing the current state of affairs and the change that we need to work towards.

**

I am an Indian. I want to bring home Lakshmi.

I am a farmer. I want to bring home Lakshmi.

I am a trader. I want the freedom to buy and sell, so I can bring home Lakshmi

I am a student. I want free entry in education, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am unemployed. I want a job, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am a mother. I want Dhan Vapasi for my family, so we get Lakshmi at home.

I am a salaried worker. I want lower taxes, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am a manufacturer. I want freedom from licences and permits, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I live in a village. I want to move to a city, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I live in a city. I want good infrastructure, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am an entrepreneur. I want rule of law, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am an exporter. I want an end to import tariffs, so I can bring home Lakshmi.

I am an unborn Indian. I want to grow up in a home with Lakshmi.

**

I want a new India.

I want an India in which Lakshmi resides in every Indian home.

I will not be divided by my caste or religion. I am an Indian first.

I am tired of divide and rule. I am tired of being exploited. I am tired of British Raj 2.0.

I want a government of Indians who will let me bring Lakshmi home.

I will vote out those who have let me down.

I will vote out those who have not let me bring Lakshmi home.

I will vote and vote as one to bring Lakshmi home. For myself and every Indian.

If you and I unite, we can bring Lakshmi home for every Indian family.

We can bring Lakshmi home. Not in a generation, but with the next election.

If you and I unite, we can make India great.

We are United Voters of India.

Will you join me?

**

The time has come to move from Ram to Lakshmi. While Ram will reside in a temple faraway for most Indians, Lakshmi (wealth) needs to be brought into the homes of each and every Indian. Every political party has connived to deny Lakshmi entry into our homes. This is the central theme UVI must build on – Ghar Lao Lakshmi (Bring Home Lakshmi). This is the challenge and opportunity for India’s voters to, in Swami Vivekananda’s words, “arise, awake, and stop not till the goal is reached.”

Making It Happen

Political parties are election machines. Even as they indulge in theatrics inside and outside of the legislative bodies, they have a grassroots cadre (voluntary and paid) which comes to life during election time. A good and successful party separates politics and elections. Win every seat is the mantra. To make that happen, they need to focus on two tracks: keep the core enthused and create the ‘hawa’ to swing the non-aligned voters. The base needs to be glued to the floaters to create a sticky selectorate.

Taking on existing political parties is non-trivial. Recreating the organisational system they have built over decades is not easy. If disruption needs to be done, digital is the only alternative. UVI needs to work like a new-generation startup that is taking on the heavyweight incumbents in politics. This mindset can offer ideas on how to make UVI a success.

Firstly, UVI is not competing for the committed voters of existing political parties. That is the red ocean and what all the political parties do with their high decibel and divisive campaigns. UVI needs to focus on the blue ocean – the largely uncontested market of the non-aligned and non-voters, who constitute two-thirds of all eligible voters.

Secondly, UVI cannot replicate the offline presence of the incumbent political parties. It has to go all-digital. Most of India now has a mobile phone, and there is a smartphone with at least one family member. Just like Amazon and its ilk have built all-digital platforms to penetrate the competitive world of retail, UVI needs to build a digital platform to reach out to the blue ocean of NANVs.

Thirdly, UVI must not succumb to the temptation of creating a new political party. Parties have their own distinct dynamics – a few at the top of a political party seek to control the election symbol and everyone else. (In fact, a good election reform would be to get rid of the arcane election symbol – that was needed in the India of two generations ago when illiteracy was very high. It is time to now start putting the names of political parties or the candidate affiliation next to their names on the EVM. A further election reform needed is to replace the EVM itself (as I have written earlier.) UVI’s focus must be to support candidates and parties who get reforms done – or vote against those who don’t. Do it in a couple of elections, and all parties will get the message.

Fourthly, UVI must have a unifying agenda. This must be around the principles of prosperity – a list of 8-10 ideas that work to attract those frustrated about the lack of choice in what the current set of political parties have to offer. This is the white space UVI must target – India has never had a united voting bloc for principles.

To summarise: UVI should become a digital non-party platform targeting the blue ocean of NANVs with an agenda crafted around principles for prosperity and wealth creation to attract at least 1 out of every 10 Indians. This is how citizens can seed the political revolution India needs to engineer the economic transformation that creates a Nayi Disha for the next generation.

Tomorrow: Part 11

The Power of 10%

A principles-based vote bank could now give the right incentives for a politician to make seemingly bold decisions. So far, the worry for a politician in India is that the ones who didn’t like the decision would vote against, while the others would stay at home – thus resulting in possible electoral defeat. But what if an electorally significant group (say, 10% of the electorate) came together, made their support visible prior to the election, and encouraged the politicians to go through with the right decisions – promising to vote, and vote as one?!

This united voting bloc could thus persuade and reward the politicians electorally for doing the hard task of changing rules so that India was put on an irreversible path to prosperity. (Conversely, it could also punish politicians for not doing the right thing.) Actions have to be taken prior to an election – since promises made could easily be forgotten after an election.

Good rules – built on the principles of classical liberalism of a limited but strong government – can only happen via collective action. A new group of voters has to be created from among the two-thirds of those eligible to vote but disconnected from the political system – the NANVs (non-aligned and non-voters). This group, if it voted and voted as one, could work as a swing vote and a pressure group with an ability to determine the eventual electoral winner.

Today even the most sincere, honest and well-meaning leader can do little in India – because the rules are so bad and complex. That is why we have no option but to write new ones. Amending old ones or finding bypasses around the bad rules will not cut it. You cannot take a bullock cart and make it into a jet engine through piecemeal changes. Politicians perhaps intuitively know this but are scared to act because they think elections will be lost, and there are no prizes for brave losers in politics. So, the vote bank could embolden the right-minded politicians to come forth, speak up and do the right things. It could also give citizens who wanted to see a better and richer India a way to effect positive change.

These two ideas – that India needs new rules (based on a new set of principles) with personal and economic freedom for Indians at their core, and a united vote bank of about 10% of voters that could determine the fate of politicians electorally – can become the building blocks of UVI. For all those who think they are alone in wanting a better India and their voice does not matter, UVI can become the route to actually making a difference and impacting electoral outcomes, and creating a better future for themselves and all Indians.

Tomorrow: Part 10