Rajesh Jain

Thinks 1427

Arnold Kling: “I think of the [US] election as a necessary evil. Elections are necessary because you want people to give up power. But they are evil because politics is like the worst of Twitter. You get followers by stirring up fear and anger. We can have an argument over which candidate’s economic proposals are worse than the other’s. We can have an argument over which candidate’s rhetoric is more demagogic and out of touch with reality. Only a partisan hack could claim that either candidate is good on the economy. I wish we could elect Javier Milei.”

Rohit Krishnan on what has surprised him most this year: “The development of decentralized training for AI models, from DiLoCo and DiPaCo from Google DeepMind to Distro coming up from Nous Research. It completely changes the game in terms of how we ought to think about large models and what we can do to train them. This means pure compute thresholds are not going to be very useful, and that we will have even less of a way to centrally control the means of knowledge production.”

WSJ: “The role of lasers is likely to be narrow for the foreseeable future because of their large energy needs, limited range and problems with bad weather. But militaries say the new weapons could prove an effective way to shoot down drones, a key task as they look for cheaper ways to counter a proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, in combat. Laser weapons shoot highly concentrated beams of light that deliver intense heat to their target. The beams, which travel at the speed of light, cut through metal to destroy engines, fuel tanks, electronics and other key parts of a target or can be used to “dazzle,” or blind, their sensors and cameras. “The old adage that lasers were five years from being amazing and always will be, that is changing,” said Doug Bush, the U.S. Army’s assistant secretary for acquisitions, logistics and technology. “Lasers for counter drone (warfare) may have met their moment,” he said.”

FT: “Corporate messaging on social media is often left to younger, tech-savvy staff in a business, or communications professionals, who understand how it might be received. But chief executives and other C-suite staff are increasingly expected to post regularly on platforms such as LinkedIn to improve their public profile. And, as with all influencers online, authenticity is critical. There has been a 35 per cent increase in C-suite professionals in the US on LinkedIn in the past five years and a 30 per cent rise in the UK. There has also been a 23 per cent increase in posts from chief executives globally year on year, and their content gets four times more engagement than other content from LinkedIn members. CEOs can expect a 39 per cent surge in followers after posting, according to LinkedIn. “It is often easier to build trust with people than corporate brands,” says Dan Shapero, chief operating officer at the platform.”

Life Notes #44: Short Stories

I have been reading two short story collections: Christmas Crimes at the Mysterious Bookshop and The Best American Mystery and Suspense 2024. Combine a short story with some mystery, and I can’t resist! There’s something magical about how a skilled writer can weave an entire world, complete with complex characters and surprising twists, in just a few pages.

While a book is a commitment of a few hours, a short story can be read in about 20-odd minutes – perfect for those stolen moments in a day or just before bed. I am always trying to guess the twist at the end – and rarely succeed. (Guess that’s what makes the story leave its mark.) There are times when I just don’t get the ending, and then I have to Google and figure out what the author intended. But that’s part of the joy – the interpretation, the discussion, the discovery of layers of meaning I might have missed.

When Abhishek was younger, we used to listen to audio versions of short stories, especially the O’Henry ones. “The Gift of the Magi” was so hauntingly beautiful – its message of sacrifice and love resonating deeply with both of us. At some level, the stories are a moment in time as the lives of people intersect. Their emotions are perhaps what we would feel, their actions what we would do. These shared storytelling moments created a special bond, a shared vocabulary of tales and morals that we still reference today.

In school, short stories felt like hard work – trying to not only understand the story but also write the answers in the exams that matched the teacher’s interpretations! The beauty of these tales was often lost in the academic dissection required for good grades. But somewhere along the way, I fell in love with stories despite the formal analysis. When I launched IndiaWorld, I had an Indian short stories section, believing in their power to connect and engage with Indians globally. I still remember the Katha Prize Stories – how they captured the essence of Indian life in ways that international collections rarely could. I look forward to Indian short stories because they tend to be more relatable, grounded in experiences and contexts I understand intimately.

I have often wondered what makes a good short story. Is it the relatable characters who feel like people we might know? The surprising yet inevitable ending that leaves us thinking? Or is it what the story leaves behind – that lingering feeling, those questions that stay with us long after we’ve finished reading? I guess it’s a mix of all of the above. The best short stories are like perfectly cut gems – every facet carefully crafted to catch the light just so, creating something beautiful and memorable in its brevity.

Mystery stories hold a special place in this format. Unlike novels that can take their time laying out clues and red herrings, short mystery stories must be economical yet fair to the reader. Every word counts, every detail matters. Perhaps that’s why they’re so satisfying when done well – they’re puzzles that challenge both our intellect and our emotional understanding of human nature.

Now, I must get back to reading the next story! And maybe, someday, I can write a few of my own!

Thinks 1426

Jason Lemkin (written in early Oct): “Since December 2021 it’s been rough for SaaS liquidity: There have only been 3 SaaS IPOs since 2021: Klaviyo, Rubrik, and OneStream. Just 3. A record low…The Top 10 Software acquirors’ M&A activity is down -90% or more from 2021.”

WSJ: “Private equity…is no foreign player in the skilled trades these days. PE firms across the country have been scooping up home services like HVAC—that is, heating, ventilation and air conditioning—as well as plumbing and electrical companies. They hope to profit by running larger, more profitable operations. Their growth marks a major shift, taking home-services firms away from family operators by offering mom-and-pop shops seven-figure and eight-figure paydays. It is a contrast from previous generations, when more owners handed companies down to their children or employees.”

Mint: “In the 1950s, manufacturing was about 10% of India’s economy. Since 2010, it has averaged about 17.7%. When the ‘Make in India’ campaign was launched in 2014, it was 17.3%. As the economy expanded over the years, the share of agriculture declined while that of services rose. The share of manufacturing has never reached even 20%. The reasons for this are well documented: Difficulties in obtaining a multiplicity of required licences, delays in acquiring key requirements such as land, hundreds of stringent labour regulations that make taking on labour costly and incentivize the formation of small rather than large integrated firms, and deficiencies of physical infrastructure and governance at the level of states.”

Harsh Mariwala: “Entrepreneurs are often treated like mythical creatures—visionary, creative and self-actualized. But this aura leaves no room for their vulnerability. We rarely talk about their unique stressors and challenges. In my journey as an entrepreneur and from conversations with others, I have learned that many of us experience anxiety, sleeplessness, irritability, anger, guilt, sadness and isolation at some time or another. There are mental health implications of linking your identity with a business, along with the constant fear of failure or of not fulfilling your role in enterprise and society. With the entrepreneurial ecosystem becoming increasingly competitive, these risks get pronounced.”

Life Notes #43: New South Mumbai Restaurants

I had written a year or so ago about some of my favourite South Mumbai restaurants: Swati, Status, Cream Centre, Spice Klub, and All-in-1 Pure Jain I had also mentioned several other restaurants that Bhavana, Abhishek and I frequently visited: Dakshinayan at Walkeshwar for its South Indian food, Quattro (next to Spice Klub) for its veg Italian and Mexican options, Soam and Govinda at Babulnath, Samrat at Churchgate, New Yorker (next to Cream Centre), and Gustoso with its excellent pizzas within walking distance from home.

The wonderful thing about Mumbai’s restaurant scene is its constant evolution, with new establishments regularly enriching our dining choices. With Abhishek in the US, it’s primarily Bhavana and me who dine out 2-3 times a month. Our preference is for vegetarian restaurants with Jain options. Here are some noteworthy new discoveries:

Navam Dining at Sikka Nagar: This has become our new favourite, with its extensive Jain menu options
Achija at Lower Parel: Conveniently close to office, offering impressive variety
Vanakkam Vihar at Opera House: Excellent South Indian specialties
Millo at Kamala Mills: Perfect for leisurely lunches or dinners, offering unique dishes not found elsewhere
Bhagat Tarachand at Lower Parel: The beloved Kalbadevi institution, now conveniently located next to my office

When it comes to food, I am not much of an experimenter – primarily because I don’t like many things. In south Indian, I like a well-made Pongal. In north Indian, mutter paneer, Malai kofta, or chole are my favourites. Outside of Indian, I like Italian (pizza, pasta), or Mexican (enchilada, quesadilla). In a restaurant, I tend to re-order what I ate and liked the previous time!

The one thing I’ve realized is how wonderfully diverse Indian cuisine can be. Millo’s menu is a good example of the possibilities. During my last visit, I tried their Chilaquiles Filo Cups – a perfect example of creative fusion done right.

It’s fascinating to see how vegetarian dining in Mumbai has evolved over the years. From traditional thali places to modern fusion restaurants, the options have expanded dramatically. Today’s vegetarian restaurants are no longer just about basic paneer dishes or standard South Indian fare. They’re experimenting with global cuisines, innovative presentations, and creative interpretations of traditional dishes. Even the ambiance has transformed – from functional eateries to sophisticated dining spaces that can compete with any high-end restaurant. This evolution is perhaps a reflection of Mumbai’s changing food culture and the growing sophistication of diners.

Thinks 1425

Anna Koivuniemi: “If you are a researcher, you typically need to read a lot of material, and figure out which of the thousands of papers published annually are relevant to your work. AI’s ability to enhance productivity will enormously accelerate research and lead to new breakthroughs. I’ve seen the proof of AI’s ability to handle huge amounts of data, understand the patterns, fill in the gaps, and make predictions that are far faster and more precise than humans. I think we have an example of that in weather forecasting, which is a brilliant human science. But weather models based on AI have quickly made huge advances, making complicated predictions in seconds that took hours with powerful computers just a year ago…[Also,] think about the problems humans haven’t yet been able to solve because they are either so complex, too interdependent, or involve too much data. I have a strong hope that in five to ten years, AI models will help researchers be more productive, help them create better and faster simulations, and help to solve new problems.”

Uday Shankar: “Many Western companies haven’t succeeded in India primarily because, even before they board the flight to India, their strategy is very clear in their heads, and that is often a global strategy that has been defined by a team that has never been to India or doesn’t know India. They look at India as the headline value of a population of 1.4 billion people. But if you look under the hood, barely 60 million people or so fall into the “affluent” category [with an income of greater than $10,000]. So which India do Western companies want to address? They come here for the 1.4 billion people but start designing solutions for 60 million people or less—that’s where the big mismatch is. And this insight becomes clear very quickly. However, they don’t want to change that strategy, for whatever reason—sometimes it’s a conviction about their strategy, sometimes because it causes global dissonance in their business model.”

WSJ: “Since trade and investment-income surpluses and deficits across the world must equal zero, [Michael] Pettis argues the U.S. is forced to run trade deficits as long as it absorbs the savings of China and other surplus economies. As those savings flow into U.S. assets, they drive up the value of the dollar. That encourages America to import more, which benefits foreign manufacturers at the expense of jobs and earnings at their U.S. rivals. And to offset the manufacturing sector’s weakness, the U.S. must borrow more to keep up the big spending, resulting in huge fiscal deficits and periodic financial bubbles. It is the surplus countries like China, he says, not the deficit countries like the U.S. that are the real protectionists.”

WSJ: “When they walked into their local food cooperative a decade ago with a Ziploc bag of homemade tortillas, Veronica and Miguel Garza had no clue that they would one day have a billion-dollar business. Veronica had just started making grain-free tortillas from her Texas kitchen, and her wildest dream was selling them at a farmers market. But after that fateful day, she founded a company with Miguel, her youngest brother. They called it Siete Foods—siete as in the seven members of the Garza family. In only 10 years, their products have gone from a single grocery store to just about every supermarket. These days, Siete’s collection of grain-free snacks includes tortillas, chips, taco shells, cookies, churro strips, beans, queso puffs, salsas and sauces. What started as a side hustle has become one of America’s most successful food startups. And it was acquired [recently] by PepsiCo for $1.2 billion.”

Machines of Loving Grace by Dario Amodei. “I think and talk a lot about the risks of powerful AI. The company I’m the CEO of, Anthropic, does a lot of research on how to reduce these risks. Because of this, people sometimes draw the conclusion that I’m a pessimist or “doomer” who thinks AI will be mostly bad or dangerous. I don’t think that at all. In fact, one of my main reasons for focusing on risks is that they’re the only thing standing between us and what I see as a fundamentally positive future. I think that most people are underestimating just how radical the upside of AI could be, just as I think most people are underestimating how bad the risks could be. In this essay I try to sketch out what that upside might look like—what a world with powerful AI might look like if everything goes right. Of course no one can know the future with any certainty or precision, and the effects of powerful AI are likely to be even more unpredictable than past technological changes, so all of this is unavoidably going to consist of guesses. But I am aiming for at least educated and useful guesses, which capture the flavor of what will happen even if most details end up being wrong. I’m including lots of details mainly because I think a concrete vision does more to advance discussion than a highly hedged and abstract one.” Matt Clancy has some different views.

Life Notes #42: Crux

After a presentation on Netcore’s new ideas to a customer, as I was walking out, the CMO came alongside me and said, “Rajesh, here is the one thing which if you can do for us, it will really transform the relationship and deliver immense value to us.” In the meeting, we had discussed many solutions, but what the CMO was telling me was something different: here is the one big thing that you should find an answer for me. (In his case, it was reaching and activating the 80% of customers who were dormant.) As I walked back to my office, I realised what he was telling me was the crux.

I have written previously about what Richard Rumelt has called as the “crux.” The crux, according to Rumelt, is the most important challenge or obstacle that, if addressed, would unlock significant progress in a situation. It’s not just any challenge, but the pivotal one that matters most. Think of it like a rock climber analysing a difficult route – there’s usually one particular move (the crux move) that’s the key to completing the entire climb. Rumelt argues that effective strategy isn’t about addressing every problem, but about identifying and focusing on this critical challenge. The crux has three key characteristics:

It’s the core challenge that’s holding everything else back
It’s feasible to address (difficult but not impossible)
Solving it would create meaningful forward momentum

He emphasises that finding your crux requires both analytical thinking and honest judgment – you need to look past surface-level issues to identify what truly matters and what you can actually influence.

While Rumelt focused on identifying the critical challenge that businesses must overcome to succeed, the same principle can be transformative in our personal lives and in sales.

In personal terms, the crux is about finding that one pivotal challenge that, if addressed, could dramatically improve our lives. It’s not about tackling everything at once, but identifying the key obstacle that’s holding us back. For instance, it might be developing a specific skill, breaking a particular habit, or building a crucial relationship. The key is that it should be both important and actionable.

In sales, applying the crux concept means identifying what truly matters to your potential customer – not their surface-level requirements, but the core challenge that, if solved, would create significant value for them. It’s about finding that critical pain point or opportunity that, when addressed, would make everything else fall into place.

The power of the crux lies in its focus: instead of spreading our energy across multiple initiatives, we concentrate on the one thing that could create the most meaningful change. It’s the difference between trying to fix everything at once and identifying the keystone that holds everything else together.

This is what I tell my colleagues at Netcore: identify and solve the crux for each customer. When you discover that one critical challenge that keeps your customer awake at night and provide a solution, you create more than just a sale – you build an unshakeable relationship. You become not just another vendor but a strategic partner who truly understands their business. That’s how you create a moat around your customer relationships – by being the one who found and solved their crux. Everything else is just a feature or a function; the crux is where true value lives.

Thinks 1424

NYTimes: “The S&P 500 is more than 20 percent higher than the Wall Street consensus for all of 2024. As a consequence, Wall Street has upgraded its outlook radically: Now that stocks have been rallying, why shouldn’t they rise further? It’s not crazy to think this way, even in the midst of wars, catastrophic storms and vituperative political battles. Stock market momentum, in itself, is a powerful thing. When the market is rising, it often keeps going. And important factors are propitious for stocks: The Federal Reserve has made life easier for companies and investors by lowering interest rates, those companies are still churning out handsome earnings and there is no economic recession visible on the horizon. But at some point, the tide always turns. While market meltdowns are what most people worry about, some strategists are nervous that stocks are rising too rapidly. “The risk of a melt-up has increased,” Yardeni Research, an independent financial research firm, warned clients in a note last month. Translation: The market is in danger of getting carried away.”

WSJ: “In his intellectually sparkling and beautifully crafted “The Genetic Book of the Dead: A Darwinian Reverie,” Richard Dawkins argues that, unlike the unfinished works of human literature—specific, deliberate—the genetic manuscript encoding the informational details of human beings was not crafted by a conscious being or Creator, but by a Darwinian process of evolution by natural selection…The human genome is an unfinished work, its current state representing a snapshot, a moment of transience and transition that lacks the completeness of a destination. Unlike a novel, however, the genome is a project of continuous revision, locked in a Nietzschean state of perpetual becoming. It is a process that may often be whimsical and capricious. As such we have lyre birds that can mimic car alarms, chainsaws and supposedly even the distinct sounds of “Nikon versus Canon camera shutters,” and octopuses that have “perfected the art of dynamic cross-dressing.” It is also possible, Mr. Dawkins intriguingly speculates, that bats may “hear in color.””

The Verge: “Humans have automated tasks for centuries. Now, AI companies see a path to profit in harnessing our love of efficiency, and they’ve got a name for their solution: agents. AI agents are autonomous programs that perform tasks, make decisions, and interact with environments with little human input, and they’re the focus of every major company working on AI today…AI companies argue “agents” — you’d better not call them bots — are different. Instead of following a simple, rote set of instructions, they believe agents will be able to interact with environments, learn from feedback, and make decisions without constant human input. They could dynamically manage tasks like making purchases, booking travel, or scheduling meetings, adapting to unforeseen circumstances and interacting with systems that could include humans and other AI tools. Artificial intelligence companies hope that agents will provide a way to monetize powerful, expensive AI models.”

Kenneth Kletzer: “The middle-income trap is a clear potential for India. Has South Korea gotten into a middle-income trap? I’m not so sure. South Korea continues to grow, but slowing growth rates are what we see. South Korea has a fairly high per capita income now and has naturally started to converge towards the growth rate of others. I would expect by 2047 that India will have a higher per capita GDP. The stumbling point for the whole world, particularly a country like India, is that it might be exposed to climate change, notably in agriculture…Every country has its potential. Even though manufacturing has taken amazing leaps in India, there still needs to be greater integration in the global supply chain. That integration has really just begun. Getting transportation within the country is not all that great yet, for goods. Can that kind of growth be sustained without advancing manufacturers more? And I can’t make a prediction on that. Advancing manufacturers may be a real opportunity for India. “

Life Notes #41: Crocs

My blue Crocs (LiteRide) have become the footwear of choice, marking a surprising evolution in my relationship with shoes.

I have been wearing Crocs for about 8-10 years. It began innocently enough as a replacement for house slippers – just something casual to slip on while going out. But over the years, and especially after the pandemic, I find myself wearing them everywhere – even to the office (when I don’t have formal meetings).

I absolutely love them. The comfort is nothing short of amazing – like walking on supportive clouds. At times, for a better fit and especially when I do some serious walking, I’ll wear socks for a tighter grip. Yes, I’ve become one of those people who commit the alleged fashion faux pas of wearing socks with Crocs, and I’m completely at peace with it!

What fascinates me is how Crocs have made this journey from being widely mocked as ugly, chunky plastic shoes to becoming a legitimate fashion statement. My first reaction was “Really?” when my son Abhishek, an early convert, suggested I try them. When I first put them on and walked around, I found the experience liberating – they felt light on the feet and did not cramp my toes. I haven’t stopped wearing them since. Between my Crocs and my Asics sports shoes, I have effectively retired my formal black leather shoes (Bata’s Hush Puppies).

The success of Crocs isn’t surprising when you consider their features: they’re made from Croslite, a proprietary closed-cell resin that makes them incredibly comfortable and lightweight. They’re breathable thanks to ventilation ports, water-resistant, versatile enough for both indoor and outdoor use, and remarkably easy to clean. Plus, you can just slip them on and go!

The Crocs story itself is fascinating. Born in 2002 in Boulder, Colorado, three friends developed these foam clogs using Croslite material, initially as a boating shoe. Their first model, the “Beach,” sold out its 200 pairs instantly at a Florida boat show. Despite facing mockery and near-bankruptcy in 2009, Crocs made an incredible comeback, particularly during the pandemic’s comfort-wear boom. Today, it’s a $4 billion revenue company.

Sometimes the best things in life come in unconventional packages. For me, it’s these rubber clogs that have redefined my daily comfort and challenged my preconceptions about acceptable footwear. Who knew that what started as a simple slipper replacement would become such a staple in my wardrobe?

Thinks 1423

Arnold Kling on truth in AI: “The larger problem is that machine Intelligence and truth have parted ways on the march towards human-like general intelligence. The AI guru and 2024 Physics Nobel Laureate Geoff Hinton described the conundrum with some humor, equating AI with an alien species that has descended on Earth, but “we’re having a hard time taking it in because they speak such good English.” We are never sure whether they are telling us the truth.”

Kim Scott: “Silicon Valley’s current fascination with a trendy management meme illustrates a broader and more troubling turn in certain powerful pockets of its culture — one that has seized our politics and could even unduly influence our election (again). I’m talking about founder mode. A recently coined management style being celebrated by some venture capitalists, it embraces the notion that a company’s founder must make decisions unilaterally rather than partner with direct reports or frontline employees. All too often the extension of founder mode is to resist not only internal checks and balances but also those from the government. I see founder mode as another expression of a creeping attraction to one-man rule in some corners of tech. (I use “man” intentionally, as only 3 percent of venture capital funding goes to solo female founders.) This neo-authoritarianism is nothing short of a rejection of the historical values that made Silicon Valley what it is today.”

NYTimes: “Sugar is among [Maharashtra’s] most important industries, one that sells to big brand buyers such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi, and is heavily controlled by the political elite. Most of the state’s sugar mills are led by sitting lawmakers or political figures, a new investigation by The New York Times and The Fuller Project found. That includes at least 21 state lawmakers, four members of the national Parliament, five government ministers and nearly 50 former officials. Mill bosses come from every party — both in government leadership and opposition — including the Indian National Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Shiv Sena and the National Congress Party. Countless other mills have business or family ties to politicians and lawmakers. That means, in many cases, that the very people who could protect workers are also profiting from their exploitation.”

FT: “UK universities produce groundbreaking research with the potential to transform industries and society. Since 2014, 1,300 spinouts from 91 UK universities have generated more than £20bn in investments and created nearly 29,000 jobs. Yet, many of these ideas fail to make it to market, trapped in the so-called valley of death. This funding gap occurs between the point where researchers exhaust research grants and the point where technologies are viable enough to attract venture capital. It poses a serious threat to the UK’s economic prospects as a home for innovative companies. Proof-of-concept (POC) funding is the bridge that can help researchers cross this valley of death. It allows academic inventors to test and demonstrate the viability of their ideas as marketable technologies. It provides the insights needed for decisions to be taken on further investment.”

The Coming Age of Anti-Acquisition

Published November 23 2024

A New Way for Marketing

A seismic shift is about to reshape the landscape of marketing. For the past two decades, the relentless pursuit of new customer acquisition has dominated every marketer’s agenda, fueling the rise of digital-first brands and disrupting countless industries. However, this era of unchecked expansion is drawing to a close, heralding the dawn of what I call the “Age of Anti-Acquisition.”

While “retention” might seem the natural successor, the term “anti-acquisition” more accurately captures the impending paradigm shift. It represents a direct challenge to the extreme and often destructive focus on acquisition, reacquisition, and even re-reacquisition that has, like a metastasizing cancer, eroded the health and profitability of businesses across sectors.

This transformation is driven by a perfect storm of factors: skyrocketing customer acquisition costs, dwindling venture capital and investor patience, market saturation, emerging privacy regulations, and a pivotal shift from growth-at-all-costs to sustainable profitability. In this new age, the relentless chase for new customers will become the exception rather than the rule, mirroring the backlash against excessive sugar in our food products.

The Age of Anti-Acquisition promises to fundamentally alter the marketing and business landscape, creating new winners and losers. Just as artificial intelligence is ushering in the Intelligence Age, succeeding the industrial, information, and Internet ages, agentic AI and other innovations will revolutionise marketing beyond traditional branding and acquisition strategies.

The implications are profound. With digital advertising budgets approaching $700 billion annually, and nearly half of this wasted on misdirected spend or low-value reacquisition, the industry has reached an unsustainable tipping point. As brands are squeezed between rising costs and declining returns, they will be forced to pivot.

In the Age of Anti-Acquisition, CMOs who thrive will be those who reject the obsession with acquiring at any cost. Their focus will shift to forging lasting relationships with existing customers, nurturing loyalty, and driving organic growth through advocacy and word-of-mouth. This paradigm shift offers CMOs the opportunity to elevate their role from Chief Marketing Officers to Chief Profits Officers, positioning themselves as frontrunners for the CEO chair.

The repercussions of this shift will extend far beyond marketing departments. As hundreds of billions of dollars are redirected away from acquisition and Big Adtech, we’ll witness a redistribution of power in the tech industry. The oxygen of growth, spending, and dominance that has sustained tech giants like Google and Meta will be depleted, reshuffling the digital marketing ecosystem and creating new avenues for brands to capture revenue and drive sustainable growth.

The true leaders in this new era will be the “Antis” – marketers who question the status quo of spending four out of five dollars on acquisition and choose a more balanced, sustainable path. They will employ advanced strategies like Velvet Rope Marketing for high-value segments and Kaizen Services for continuous improvement of retention tactics. Leveraging technologies such as agentic AI and digital twins, the Antis will create systems that anticipate customer needs, making every interaction valuable.

The Age of Anti-Acquisition represents a fundamental reimagining of how businesses relate to their customers and create long-term value. It’s a call to arms for marketers to lead their organisations into a new era of customer-centricity, sustainable growth, and enduring profitability.

Past Writings – 1

Retention Re-engineering: Random to Recurring Revenues: “Retention and growth of existing customers should be the top priorities for modern marketers. However, over the past decade, the focus has shifted disproportionately towards new customer acquisition and reacquisition of lapsed customers. This shift has led to an explosion in marketing budgets, driven by relentless bidding wars on adtech platforms. Today, adtech (customer acquisition) spending accounts for over 80% of marketing budgets, with a meagre 10% allocated to martech (customer engagement) and the remaining 10% to branding. The hidden truth is that nearly half of the adtech budget is wasted due to misguided acquisition and reacquisition efforts. Marketers need to strike a balance between adtech and martech spending, but the lack of innovation in communication channels and martech platforms has perpetuated the skew towards adtech. Adtech is seen as a more reliable driver of consistent revenue growth compared to martech. This imbalance has resulted in low customer lifetime value (LTV) coupled with high customer acquisition costs (CAC), creating a profit squeeze for digital businesses. The promise of retention and growth marketing to enhance profitability has remained largely unfulfilled—until now. Five groundbreaking innovations promise to revolutionise retention: Agentic AI and the Co-Marketer, Digital Twins for Segments and Individuals, AI-Powered Large Customer Models, Epps (Email Apps) and ActionAds, and Bundled Kaizen Services…This next-generation martech, combined with innovative email strategies and advanced services, will equip marketers with the tools to drastically reduce AdWaste and embark on a Profipoly Quest – achieving exponential forever profitable growth. This will mark the most significant shift in marketing since the advent of adtech. Retention marketing – retention re-engineering – will finally claim its rightful place at the forefront of marketing strategies.”

The Retention Revolution: A Nayi Disha for Marketing: “A new direction for marketing is necessary. Excessive funds are being poured into acquiring and reacquiring customers, while retention is neglected. This imbalance is detrimental to brand profits and customer experience… Marketing needs a Nayi Disha moment – a movement towards a fundamental shift in priorities. Brands must pivot from acquisition to retention, from “one and done” to multi-monetisation, from focusing on new customers to nurturing existing ones, from profit killers to profit creators, from high Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) to high Lifetime Value (LTV), from AdWaste to brand profits, from being profitless to building a profipoly (profits monopoly)… Consider the potential impact: by 2025, half of the projected $700 billion annual digital advertising spend will be wasted. That’s $350 billion – and climbing – every year that brands could reallocate to customer retention, boosting profits, and sparking innovation… For businesses to thrive, they must break free from the obsession with new customer acquisition and turn their attention to existing customers. They need to reimagine customer engagement, re-engineer retention strategies, and reset their vision toward becoming a profipoly.”

Profitless to Profipoly: A CEO-CMO Dialogue on Marketing’s New Direction: “Welcome to the world of Retention Re-engineering, where we transform random, one-off revenues into predictable, recurring streams, and pave the way for exponential, forever profitable growth. This is how we build a true profipoly. Now, let’s begin by reframing the challenges you face with retention. There are three core issues: first, a lack of deep customer understanding, which limits effective personalisation; second, the absence of hotlines, leading to what I call “attention recession”; and third, the underutilisation of your martech platforms, which prevents you from unlocking their full potential for driving retention… When done right, [the Nayi Disha for marketing] has the power to transform profitless companies into profipolies. And by profitless, I don’t just mean companies that are operating in the red – I’m also talking about those that are handing over a large share of their profits to the adtech giants… In every industry, there’s a finite pool of profits. The goal of a successful business should be to capture the largest share of that pool, thereby depriving competitors of the resources they need to grow. This is the strongest moat you can build – a foundation for exponential forever profitable growth. When a company achieves this, it has created a profipoly – a monopoly on profits in its industry.”

Past Writings – 2

The 10 Tenets for Re-engineering Retention: “The 10 tenets for re-engineering retention offer a strategic compass for marketers navigating the critical shift from a profitless state to becoming a profipoly. Each tenet is not merely a principle, but a portal to profound insights, providing a scaffold for reimagining customer relationships and propelling business growth in the digital era. Collectively, these tenets have the potential to catalyse the most significant paradigm shift in marketing since the advent of adtech with the Internet’s rise… The transition from adtech to martech, and from acquisition to retention, harbours the potential to disrupt entire industries, paralleling the transformative promise of AI. While no single technology will drive this change in isolation, the collective impact of innovations will fuel the re-engineering of retention. The productive redeployment of hundreds of billions of dollars from AdWaste to brand growth and customer satisfaction could be truly disruptive, reshaping not just the marketing landscape, but the broader business world for the better.”…Here are the 10 tenets:

Measure and Minimise AdWaste
Forge a Unified Foundation
Harness the Large Customer Model
Deploy AI-Powered Co-Marketer
Create AI Twins for Hyper-Personalisation
Revolutionise Customer Engagement Touchpoints
Implement Velvet Rope Marketing
Partner with a Kaizen Progency
Establish Earned Growth as the North Star Metric
Redefine the CMO as the Chief Profits Officer

The Coming Fight for Marketing’s Soul: Incumbent Acquis vs Challenger Antis: “Acquisition-focused marketers, whom I call the “Acquis,” became the driving force behind the digital marketing revolution, relentlessly pursuing new customers through increasingly sophisticated targeting and bidding strategies across an expanding array of digital platforms…The focus on acquisition often came at the expense of customer experience. Brands found themselves in a perpetual cycle of acquisition and re-acquisition, treating all customers – new and existing – with the same broad-brush approach. This neglect of existing customers not only increased churn rates but also missed opportunities to cultivate brand loyalty and drive organic growth through word-of-mouth referrals…In most companies, CRM and retention teams have historically played second fiddle to acquisition-focused marketing teams, who control the majority of budgets and attention. With limited resources, retention teams are left to handle the grind of segmentation, campaign creation, execution, and analysis. Their role often feels mechanical, with little room for innovation. But this is about to change, and with it comes the need for a new label – the Antis, marketers dedicated to challenging the acquisition-first mindset. The Antis represent a new breed of marketers focused on nurturing and growing existing customer relationships. They understand that the true value of a customer lies not in the initial transaction, but in their lifetime value (LTV). This shift in perspective is not just a tweak in strategy; it’s a fundamental reimagining of the customer-brand relationship.”

In summary: The coming age of Anti-Acquisition marks a pivotal shift in marketing from the blind chase of new customers to the strategic nurturing of existing ones. Retention re-engineering will transform random revenues into predictable profits, catalysing the rise of a Profipoly – a monopoly on profits – where brands maximise lifetime value and reduce costly acquisitions. The 10 Tenets of Retention provide a strategic roadmap to navigate this shift, challenging the dominance of the Acquis and championing the Antis – marketers focused on long-term relationships over short-term gains. Ultimately, this paradigm shift will reshape the entire marketing landscape, empowering brands to move from being profitless to profitable, ensuring exponential forever profitable growth.

The Shifts – 1

The Age of Anti-Acquisition represents a fundamental shift in how marketing departments operate, moving away from the traditional obsession with acquisition to a focus on sustainable growth driven by retention. This transformation redefines the old metrics, tools, and strategies, placing profitability and customer loyalty at the centre. These shifts are a complete reimagining of how businesses build long-term value and competitive advantage.

The Old Way of marketing, dominated by the Age of Acquisition, was defined by a relentless focus on growth at any cost, with new customer acquisition as the primary objective. Brands invested heavily in reaching new audiences and re-engaging churned customers, regardless of profitability. In contrast, the New Way, or the Age of Anti-Acquisition, shifts the focus to sustainable profitable growth by emphasising retention, loyalty, and lifetime value. This transformation involves a series of defining characteristics that reshape the traditional marketing playbook and redefine success metrics for modern marketers.

In the Old Way, growth was synonymous with top-line expansion, even if it meant incurring losses or sacrificing long-term profitability. The mindset was “more customers at any cost,” leading to profit erosion and dependency on constant reacquisition. The New Way advocates for Sustainable Profitable Growth, where profitability becomes the cornerstone of growth strategies. Marketers now seek to balance customer acquisition with retention to drive a healthier bottom line and create value through sustained relationships, rather than one-time transactions.

The Old Way relied heavily on Acquisition and Reacquisition, fuelled by an over-reliance on adtech platforms. This led to massive ad spend with little attention given to nurturing existing customers. In the New Way, this focus shifts decisively to Retention, utilising martech strategies and tools to build deeper, more meaningful connections with customers. Instead of being trapped in an endless cycle of chasing new customers, brands now invest in keeping existing customers happy, thereby reducing churn and increasing loyalty.

The success metric in the Old Way was Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) Optimisation, where the primary goal was to lower the cost of acquiring a new customer. The New Way measures success through Lifetime Value (LTV) Maximisation, emphasising the long-term value each customer can bring to the business. By focusing on LTV, marketers prioritise the quality of customer relationships, aiming to create high-value customers who generate recurring revenues over time, rather than simply minimising the cost to acquire them.

The Old Way also suffered from Siloed Data systems that fragmented customer insights across channels and touchpoints, making it difficult to form a holistic view of the customer journey. The New Way integrates Unified Data Ecosystems, merging martech and adtech data to create a comprehensive, cross-channel understanding of each customer. This unified data approach empowers marketers to deliver seamless, personalised experiences that anticipate customer needs and preferences.

The Shifts – 2

Another key distinction is the evolution from Predictive and Generative AI to Agentic AI and Multi-Agent Systems. In the Old Way, AI was primarily used for basic predictions and campaign optimisation, operating within predefined boundaries. The New Way leverages Agentic AI – intelligent systems that can autonomously make decisions, simulate scenarios, and engage with customers dynamically. This is world of a Co-Marketer interacting with AI Twins. This allows for richer, real-time experiences, where AI systems operate as co-pilots, assisting marketers in creating adaptive, high-impact strategies.

In the Old Way, marketers executed Campaigns for Cohorts or Segments, crafting generalised strategies for broad customer groups. The New Way moves towards “Departments of One” for a Segment of One, where hyper-personalised campaigns cater to the needs of individual customers. With AI-driven insights, marketers can now tailor offers, content, and journeys for each person, delivering N=1 personalisation at scale, a feat previously impossible with traditional campaign models.

The Old Way used One-Way Push Channels like email and SMS, relying on these channels to broadcast generic messages. The New Way redefines customer engagement with Two-Way, In-Channel Conversions that enable customers to interact, respond, and convert directly within the channel itself. Innovations like AMP for Email, Epps (Email Apps), WhatsApp, RCS, and AI-powered chat interfaces turn traditionally passive channels into interactive engagement hubs, making conversions frictionless and immediate.

While the Old Way measured success through Revenue Increase, primarily driven by paid marketing, the New Way prioritises Earned Growth. This new metric combines the impact of retention, organic referrals, and customer advocacy to capture true business health. Earned Growth reflects how well a business cultivates loyalty and converts satisfied customers into vocal advocates who help the brand grow organically.

The role of the CMO in the Old Way was constrained to optimising marketing spend and generating new leads, often with little emphasis on profitability. The New Way elevates the CMO to the Chief Profits Officer, responsible for driving profitable growth and taking ownership of the entire customer lifecycle. This new mandate transforms the CMO from a tactical marketer into a strategic business leader, bridging the gap between customer engagement and business profitability.

Finally, in the Old Way, many digital businesses remained Profitless or Just Marginally Profitable due to spiralling acquisition costs and poor customer retention. The New Way aims for the creation of a Profipoly—a monopoly on profits within the industry. Brands that master retention re-engineering and optimise LTV over CAC become dominant players, capturing the lion’s share of profits while squeezing out competitors. This shift marks the ultimate promise of the Anti-Acquisition Age: a future where marketing doesn’t just drive growth, but builds lasting, defensible profitability.

In the age of anti-acquisition, marketing departments are no longer mere collection agents for Big Adtech; they become the true architects of customer loyalty and catalysts for sustained, profitable growth – fulfilling the role they were always meant to play.

The Time is Now

The Cost Per Click (CPC) innovation in the early 2000s revolutionised the world of marketing. It ushered in the Age of Acquisition, where every brand began frantically chasing new customers in a relentless landgrab, driven by the pervasive “fear of missing out.” This paradigm shift orchestrated a flywheel of spending, underpinned by what is arguably the most ingenious business model in corporate history – an auction for attention (and the coveted click). In this arena, businesses found themselves pitted against one another in a high-stakes digital arena, constantly outbidding rivals in an endless cycle of escalating costs.

But the era of unchecked acquisition is approaching its breaking point. Rising customer acquisition costs, increased investor pressure to prioritise profitability over growth, stringent privacy regulations, and evolving consumer expectations have created a perfect storm that necessitates a new approach. The tipping point is here, driving the shift towards Anti-Acquisition.

Businesses that cling to old acquisition-centric models risk spiralling into unprofitability or becoming obsolete. The opportunity cost of inaction is enormous. Yet for those who embrace the Anti-Acquisition mindset, the rewards are transformative. Early adopters stand to gain a significant competitive edge, building customer loyalty moats that are difficult to breach and establishing themselves as industry profipolies – monopolies on profits. These early adopters will leverage AI-driven personalisation and retention strategies to maximise customer lifetime value, creating a virtuous cycle of loyalty and profitability that competitors will struggle to replicate.

At stake is the future of the $700 billion adtech industry. Approximately $300 billion of this sum is wasted each year on ineffective or poorly targeted campaigns – AdWaste that is up for grabs. This staggering figure represents an unprecedented opportunity for brands willing to pivot towards more efficient, retention-focused strategies. The reallocation of these funds could fuel innovation in martech, drive improvements in customer experience, and dramatically boost profitability. This shift has the potential to upend the entire digital ecosystem, diminishing the dominance of current adtech giants and creating room for new players who prioritise customer value over sheer reach. This redistribution of resources could spark a new wave of innovation in martech, with emerging companies developing sophisticated tools for retention, personalisation, and customer experience optimisation, challenging the status quo of the current adtech landscape

The time for half-measures and incremental changes has passed. CMOs and business leaders must take bold, decisive action to implement the tenets of Anti-Acquisition marketing. This means reallocating budgets from acquisition to retention, investing in AI-driven personalisation technologies, and reimagining customer engagement strategies. It calls for a fundamental shift in how success is measured, from short-term metrics to long-term value creation.

Imagine a future, five or ten years from now, where marketing is not just a cost centre but a powerful profit driver – where businesses grow organically through the advocacy of delighted customers, and where AI-powered systems anticipate customer needs, crafting experiences that are seamlessly relevant and timely. In this future, brands will strike the perfect balance between personalisation and privacy, using zero- and first-party data responsibly to create value for customers while respecting their desire for control over their information. This future is within reach, but only if we act decisively today.

The transition won’t be easy. It requires dismantling entrenched habits, retraining teams, and confronting short-term growth pains. But the alternative – continuing down the unsustainable path of acquisition addiction – is far more perilous.

As we stand at this crossroad, we have a critical choice to make: will we continue feeding the insatiable appetite of acquisition marketing, or will we forge a new path? The Age of Anti-Acquisition is dawning, offering a way forward to sustainable profitability and true customer-centricity. The question is no longer whether this shift will happen, but who will lead it.

The time is now for marketers to reclaim their role as the true architects of business growth. In this new paradigm, CMOs have the opportunity to evolve into Chief Profit Officers, taking ownership of the entire customer lifecycle and directly impacting the bottom line. Those who successfully lead this transformation may well find themselves on the fast track to the CEO’s chair, as businesses recognise the critical role of customer-centric, profit-driven marketing in overall corporate strategy.

It’s time to break free from the acquisition addiction and build lasting, profitable customer relationships. The future of marketing – and indeed, the future of business – depends on the decisions we make today. Let’s seize this moment, embrace the Age of Anti-Acquisition, and usher in a new era of marketing excellence.