WSJ: “The best way to understand the Japan of “Shogun” is to think of it as a mini-international system. The feudal domains were like autonomous nations, fighting each other from the late-1460s through 1600 for survival and power. Success depended on learning key lessons that remain relevant today. In a land consumed by warfare, each daimyo, or feudal lord, knew that internal instability would threaten the survival of his domain. One way to help maintain stability was to create a thriving economy by reducing barriers to trade and attracting the finest artisan talent, while avoiding waste and profligacy. Economic surplus was used to build massive defense establishments, including the greatest castles the world has ever seen and armies of samurai—warriors adept with sword, bow and pike, on horse or foot. Warfare was a combination of mass maneuver and logistics combined with archaic notions of personal honor and disgrace. The wise daimyo ensured that his forces were absolutely loyal; losing the samurai’s devotion could bring defeat in battle.”
FT writes about forecaster Peter Turchin: ““One hundred years ago, people could not predict weather. Now we can predict weather a week ahead. What we would like is a social weather service that would collect a lot of data, put it into a big model, and the model would tell us, ‘We’re going to have a social quake several years ahead.’ And we would start yelling, ‘Political leaders, you’ve got to take notice.’” Except the moisture in the atmosphere doesn’t have free will, I say. “No, but we overestimate how much free will affects the movement of populations of millions of people.” Turchin’s next project is to build a model for 10 countries “like China, UK, Russia, Germany. Then we run the model for 10 years. We publish the scripts on which the model is based. And we see what happens.””
WSJ: “New research suggests links between ultra-processed foods—such as chips, many cereals and most packaged snacks at the grocery store—and changes in the way we learn, remember and feel. These foods can act like addictive substances, researchers say, and some scientists are proposing a new mental-health condition called “ultra-processed food use disorder.” Diets filled with such foods may raise the risk of mental health and sleep problems. The science is still early and researchers say there is a lot they don’t know. Not all ultra-processed foods are equal, some scientists say, adding that some might be good for you. A diet high in ultra-processed foods has been linked with obesity, Type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, but researchers are still figuring out exactly why, beyond calorie counts and nutrient composition.”
The Generalist: “Before making an investment, Reid [Hoffman] believes you should have an internal view of the market’s development and how a company either complies with that or defies it. While many investors talk about understanding the market, Reid’s configuration comes from his love of strategy games and carries that sense of nimbleness. He also expects founders to have their own “theory of the game,” relative to the business they’re building. When I meet CEOs, especially in the early stages, I like trying to understand what their theory might be.” More: “Venture capital as “predictive anthropology.” This is how Reid described the art of investing in the future. I’ve found it a particularly helpful way to assess startups. What will the world of tomorrow look like? What will successive generations need most? And how does the company in front of me fit those beliefs?”
