A Leader’s Legacy
Many countries have been transformed because of wise leaders. India has not been so fortunate. History has given India yet another opportunity. In a world where the liberal order is threatened and the twin totalitarian threats of Russia and China are creating schisms, India can be the beacon of hope. With Dhan Vapasi ensuring economic justice, with a government promising liberty by not interfering in voluntary trade and exchange, and rule of law ensuring equality, non-discrimination (generality) and “politics by principle” rather than “politics by interest”, India can create the conditions for a long period of sustained growth. This is the best legacy a leader can leave – a free and rich India which does not need generations but just the period between two elections.
In Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings”, Elrond says, “Yet such is oft the course of deeds that move the wheels of the world: small hands do them because they must, while the eyes of the great are elsewhere.” India is small by global standards – in per capita income (a sixth of the global average) and its share of world trade (just 2%). But India can punch much above its weight in the years to come if it chooses to step away from the mistakes of the past, dismantle its anti-prosperity machine, and set course on a new direction. The Great Powers are all distracted and have their own battles to fight. India is perhaps alone among the large economies to have many things going for it – most important among them, a young population and entrepreneurs that compare with the best in the world. What is needed is that they be set free.
I imagined an India of the future – free and rich, transformed by its leader. Maybe a leader can one day look back at a legacy that generations unborn will remember:
For the first time in history, Indians controlled the destiny of their nation, not emperors, kings or kakistocrats. Freed from the chains of successive governments that had made doing business harder and harder with each passing year, the people had taken it upon themselves to use their newly found economic freedom to create better lives for themselves and their families. The Dhan Vapasi initiative had unlocked trillions of dollars from under government control and put wealth into the hands of the rightful owners – the people themselves. As sector after sector was freed up from government interventions, a virtuous cycle led to the creation of well-paying jobs and rapid economic growth. Technology accelerated the transformation as Indians built on the latest advances in computing and energy. What the West did over a century, what China took a generation, India had achieved in a decade.
If India kept its growth momentum, in less than a generation, the annual income of the average Indian would have gone up by a factor of 10. Their wealth would have increased even more. India by 2040 could become the world’s largest economy – ahead of the US and China. No other country would be producing more than India by 2040. This was something which was last true a thousand years ago.
What the…Indian Revolution did was to make Indians richer and put the nation on a path to greatness it had last seen a millennium ago – before the invasions by foreign powers began. With the advantage of its younger population, cheaper energy and piggybacking on technological innovations, India was powering ahead to become the production and innovation engine of the world.
Revolutions can go either way. While India needs one (and I have argued for a bottom-up people’s movement), the revolution with the best chance of success is one which can be led by a leader who knows the limitations of what governments can do and has faith in the ability of markets and individuals – and in India’s case, 1.3 billion individuals pursuing their self-interest. Good jobs and upward mobility will be an outcome of the spontaneous order that such a leader’s decisions will unleash. No government official has the knowledge to anticipate or predict the future. All they can do is to create the simple rules that enable mass flourishing. The next-level of decisions – manufacturing or services, domestic consumption or exports-led – will emerge from enterprises and consumers making decisions in a free market. So will creative destruction which will help direct capital to the right opportunities. This is what will solve India’s income problem and put the people on an irreversible path of prosperity.
