Frameworks: “Many of the thoughts in this document draw on and synthesize concepts from economics, math, physics, chemistry, biology, and psychology.”
Vitalik Buterin: “We’re starting to understand what both the politics and the technology of the 21st century is going to look like, and how each of the pieces of what we’re working on are going to fit into the picture. In 2022, crypto finally feels meaningfully useful; lots of mainstream organizations and even governments are using it as a way to send and receive payments, and I suspect other applications are soon to come. The future still feels less uncertain, but we have much more of a view than before as to how it’s all going to play out.”
Ruchir Sharma: “Each robot can replace three or more factory workers, the hardest hit group. But the degree of disruption depends on the often-exaggerated pace of change. Forecasters have been predicting since the 1950s that full-blown AI would arrive in 20 years, but it is not here yet. Dire warnings that autonomous vehicles would wipe out one of the most common jobs in America -truck driver — have given way to a trucker shortage. Now recession is looming, but unemployment is unlikely to rise as high as in previous downturns, owing again to shrinking labour forces. Fewer workers will leave the labour market tighter than usual through the business cycle, even as robots continue to multiply. They can’t arrive too soon. Owing to an unexpectedly steep drop in birth rates, the UN recently raised its forecast for the pace of population decline, from the US to China. It takes years for births to affect the workforce, but smart governments will act now, by drawing more women, immigrants, seniors and — yes — robots into the workforce. The other option is fewer workers, automated or not, and a growthless future.”
