Thinks 458

Michael Eisenberg: “Part of what I try to do in this is, is what I call backcasting, which is the inverse of forecasting. Which is: I like to imagine that driverless-car world and then ask, ‘Okay, what do we need to do in order to get there?’ And, ‘What’s in control? What’s out of control? What needs to go right along the way in order to get there?’ And, I find that’s kind of a useful framework for how you figure out whether this new story or vision of the world has an option happening. My partner at Benchmark, Bruce Dunlevie, used to say that the venture business needs to ask the question of ‘What can go right?’ And, if this goes right, and that goes right, and that goes right and that goes right, well, then we got a big outcome. The odds of each one of those going right, like, 5%. But, you want to check to make sure there aren’t blockers on the way that are immovable or that something doesn’t elongate the steps so much that you can’t topple the domino on the way to what can go right and what go right and what can go right? And so, I think, those are my frameworks I use for getting at this. There’s back-casting and looking at that and going, ‘If this goes right, and that goes right, then how do we get there?'”

Arnold Kling: “Almost a quarter century ago, Virginia Postrel published The Future and its Enemies. That book advocates for dynamism. But unlike Smith and other smug advocates for active government, Postrel articulated the libertarian view that dynamism comes from decentralized experimentation. Progressives are misguided about progress. If you want a dynamic society, don’t root for government to lead the way. Instead, root for government to create a background of order that permits progress to proceed. I have an aphorism that progress comes via the three e’s: experimentation, evaluation, and evolution. It does not come via intelligent design.”

Atanu Dey on Mega Indian New Cities: “India needs new cities for it to urbanize at a rapid rate. These new cities have to be deliberately created. They would be “mega Indian new cities” or MINCs.  Since the government has no understanding of this matter, it has to be an entrepreneur’s job. The idea has to be fully defined and the plan for implementation created. The vision: Create 20 new cities across India, each with a (final) capacity of 10 million residents. They will account for 200 million people in 20 years. Begin the project in 2025 and complete it by 2045. Land for a fully-developed city will need to be allocated at the start but brought into development over the 20-year life of city construction. On average, each city will grow by half a million every year, for a total of 10 million at completion. Each city will be high-density by design. Around 1,000 sqkm in land area, population density will be 10,000 per sqkm. (Mumbai population density is 20,000 per sqkm.)”

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Rajesh Jain

An Entrepreneur based in Mumbai, India.