Scott Alexander: “A prediction market will strike it big when it gets three things right at the same time: real money, easy to use, easy to create your own subsidized markets.”
Sam Altman: “Key early-stage investing questions: Of all the things you could work on, why this? How does this eventually become a $100 billion business? What do you understand about this that others don’t? What progress have you made in the last week? What are you really great at?”
FT: “Vimes Boots theory…demonstrates the choices denied to those on a low income that could save them money. Those who can afford the $50 for a high-quality pair of working boots may get more than a decade’s use from them, while those who cannot will buy a $10 pair that lasts little more than a year. Hence the poor will spend $100 over a decade and still have wet feet, while the wealthy spend half that. Vimes theory is that the rich were rich because “they managed to spend less money”.”
