The Alternative
The opening against the BJP comes from the 60% NANVs (non-aligned and non-voters). Remember that the BJP core base is 25% while the non-BJP core is 15%. Of the rest, 30% are not voting and 30% are split between floaters and wasters. If half of the 60% NANVs unite, it could pose a challenge to the BJP. Of course, this has never happened before in Indian politics, so what follows is simply an intellectual exercise about what is possible but perhaps not probable. (I have written about these ideas in my writings about Nayi Disha and United Voters of India previously.)
The starting point has to be focused on the non-voters. Very little has been discussed about why people don’t vote, and what would make them vote. Of the 30% non-voters, my belief is that about 5-10% (a sixth to a third of the non-voters) do not exist; there are errors in the electoral rolls which have not been corrected. That still leaves a substantial 20-25% of the eligible voter base as consciously deciding not to vote. The question to ask is: what will persuade them to vote?
Another group not discussed is those in the 18-24 age category who have not registered to vote. This would be about 6-7% of the population. If they can be persuaded to register, the non-voters tally goes back to 30% or so.
So, the first two tasks for any challenger have to be:
- Identify the non-voters and persuade them to turnout
- Identify the non-registered young voters (who will vote for the first-time) and get them to vote
This aggregate is large enough to match the BJP core base, assuming all of them can be united and persuaded to vote as one. That then leaves the non-aligned voters. Wasters need to be persuaded that their vote can be more effective if they vote for this united coalition – because they are obviously not convinced by the BJP or the other parties. And the floaters will probably follow once they see that this new vote bank has the requisite strength to win since they are keen to be on the winning side.
So, numerically, it is possible. Can it be done in reality? I think a combination of a new political platform (not a party) organised as a bottom-up movement, the use of digital to spread the message and get the registrations, and a message around a better economic future (Nayi Disha’s economic agenda with Dhan Vapasi at its core) could perhaps be a people’s alternative in 2024. If there can be money without a bank (Bitcoin), can there be a Lok Sabha without the politicians and their parties? This is the startup opportunity for political entrepreneurs who seek a different future for India – one based on limited government, economic freedom, prosperity and an open society, rather than big government, extreme welfarism, perpetual poverty and social divisions.
