The Segment Martech Forgot: Why Rest Customers Hold the Key to Profitable Growth (Part 6)

Hooked Score: Make the Invisible Transition Visible

The Problem We’re Solving:
Marketing platforms measure conversions beautifully but track engagement transitions terribly. How many brands receive automated alerts when a Best customer’s engagement starts declining? How many CMOs review weekly reports on Best→Rest migration rates? The answer: almost none. By the time a customer appears in a “win-back” segment, they’ve already completed the journey to Test.

The Hooked Score Solution:
Hooked Score is an engagement-based scoring system that makes the Best→Rest transition visible in real-time. Unlike revenue or LTV-based segmentation—which can be delayed, unavailable, or meaningless for long-cycle categories—Hooked Score tracks immediate engagement signals that predict future value.

How It Works:
The scoring system assigns points for multiple engagement actions across time windows, creating a dynamic health metric for each customer relationship:

Base Engagement Actions:

  • Email open: 1 point
  • Email click: 3-5 points
  • AMP interaction (quiz, form, game): 5 points
  • Website visit from email: 8 points
  • Purchase: 15 points

Streak Mechanics (Critical for Habit Formation):

  • 7-day engagement streak: 1.5x multiplier
  • 14-day streak: 2x multiplier
  • 30-day streak: 2.5x multiplier
  • 90-day streak: 3x multiplier
  • Broken streak: Reset to 1x, but preserve 50% of accumulated score

Advanced Signals:

  • Mu (Atomic Rewards) redemption: 3 points
  • Preference centre update: 5 points (zero-party data)
  • Social share or referral: 10 points

Multi-Horizon Tracking:
Hooked Score operates across three time windows simultaneously:

  • 30-day score (volatile, highest signal): Detects immediate Best→Rest slides
  • 90-day score (balanced): Shows sustained engagement vs. sporadic bursts
  • 180-day score (stable): Reveals true relationship strength

This multi-window approach enables nuanced interpretation. A customer with low 30-day but high 180-day score is dormant but recoverable. High 30-day but low 180-day suggests recently reactivated—needing nurturing.

Decay and Weighting:
Points decay exponentially to ensure recency matters: last 30 days carry 100% weight, 31-60 days at 70%, 61-90 days at 40%, 91-180 days at 20%. This prevents old engagement from masking current disengagement.

Segment Mapping:
Hooked Scores translate directly to BRTN segments:

  • Best: Score consistently above 50 across all windows
  • Rest: Score 10-49, showing moderation or decline
  • Test: Score below 10 or sharp drops
  • Next: New customers, score building

The Operational Power:
Hooked Score becomes the early-warning radar that traditional martech lacks. When a Best customer’s 30-day score drops 20%, automated Rest Rescue protocols trigger. Drop 40%? Human intervention. Drop 60%? Emergency retention. The transition is no longer invisible—it’s monitored, measured, and manageable.

For brands with long purchase cycles (insurance, furniture, B2B services), Hooked Score provides the leading indicator that revenue metrics can’t. Engagement predicts value. Track engagement, and you predict—and prevent—churn before it happens.

Thinks 1766

NYTimes: “U.S. data center demand, driven largely by A.I., could triple by 2030, according to McKinsey, which would require data centers to make nearly $7 trillion in investment to keep up.”

WSJ: “In the director’s seat is Starbucks Chief Executive Brian Niccol. Now a year into his tenure, he is betting the company’s future lies in making its cafes warm and inviting, and he is leaving nothing to chance. The company has rewritten its training materials. It’s standardizing uniforms, cafe decor and worker mannerisms. It is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to improve its service and ambience. It’s trying to make its interiors warmer and adding hundreds of thousands of chairs, many of which were stripped out during the pandemic. Mobile-order pickup queues are being better sectioned off, an effort to tamp down on crowding and confusion. The stakes are high. Starbucks has recorded six consecutive quarterly same-store sales drops.”

FT: “Discounty is part of a popular sub-category of retail sims that cross over with “cosy games” in the wake of farming sensation Stardew Valley. New release Tiny Bookshop asks players to move to the seaside town of Bookstonbury and open a store stocked with real-world novels. In Dave the Diver, you play a deep-sea fisherman who moonlights as a sushi chef, balancing each big catch with a fast-paced restaurant simulation. This week saw the release of Strange Antiquities, in which you run a shop specialising in occult objects. While the familiar rhythms of building a business provide a framework for upgrades and progression in such games, the town settings are often beautifully realised, offering charming surroundings populated by intriguing locals…When you strip away these narrative trappings, you’re left with another popular sub-genre: factory sims.”

Mint: “Amazon India’s advertising and allied services revenue grew 25% in FY25, against a 21% growth in its mainstay marketplace business, making it one of the fastest-growing segments, data from business intelligence platform Tofler showed. However, the marketplace remains Amazon India’s backbone; it contributed ₹17,328 crore, or 58% of operating revenue, while advertisements and logistics brought in another ₹8,342 crore.”

The Segment Martech Forgot: Why Rest Customers Hold the Key to Profitable Growth (Part 5)

Why Now: The Perfect Storm – 2

  1. Tech Breakthroughs Enabling Rest-First Strategies

A decade ago, monitoring micro-transitions and serving personalised nudges to millions of customers was impossible. The infrastructure to manage Rest customers at scale simply didn’t exist. Not anymore. Three technological breakthroughs have changed everything:

  • AMP for Email (and Interactive Technologies): Email has evolved from static broadcast to interactive, app-like experiences. AMP has turned inboxes into interactive canvases—transactions, polls, games, and feedback loops can now live inside the message. Advanced CSS enables real-time personalisation, in-email transactions, games, quizzes, and dynamic content—all within the inbox. This transforms email from a click-through mechanism to a destination in itself, enabling the lightweight, valuable daily touchpoints that Rest customers need without forcing them to leave their email client.
  • Generative AI for Content at Scale: Creating engaging, personalised content for millions of customers was previously impossible without massive creative teams. AI makes content creation and personalisation scalable, eliminating the excuse that “relationship-building content is too costly.” What once required armies of copywriters can now be produced by AI Agents working alongside human strategists—making daily, individualised content economically viable.
  • AI Agents for Monitoring and Orchestration: Agents can watch for early signals of disengagement, track state shifts (Best→Rest transitions), and trigger the right interventions automatically. This “always-on” intelligence makes it possible to track millions of individual customer journeys and intervene at precisely the right moment—something no human team could manage.

What was previously unscalable is now possible at near-zero marginal cost. Together, these technologies make it possible to deliver what was impossible before: individualised, valuable, daily engagement with millions of Rest customers at economically sustainable cost.

  1. Business Model Innovation Closing the Loop

Technology enables new capabilities, but business model innovation makes them economically viable. Equally important, the economics have shifted. New models align incentives and remove cost objections:

  • Zero-Cost Messaging via Cooperative Ad Networks (NeoN): What if every message sent to Rest customers could be monetised, even if they don’t buy your product? ActionAds and non-competing brand sponsorships mean every send can be monetised, even without immediate purchase. Brand-to-brand cooperative ad networks enable non-competing brands to share audiences through authenticated identity. When you send that daily entertaining email to a Rest customer, you can include relevant offers from complementary brands—generating revenue even when your own product isn’t purchased. This transforms the economics: engagement messages shift from pure cost to potential revenue centres. Publishers “print money” by monetising their engaged audiences; advertisers “save money” through precision targeting at lower CAC.
  • Progency (Done-For-You Marketing): An agency-model powered by AI that focuses exclusively on Rest customers, lifting engagement and revenue without overburdening in-house teams. The “who will do it?” problem has always killed Rest management. In-house marketing teams lack the bandwidth, expertise, and tools to create daily personalised content for millions. Traditional agencies lack the technology platform and aligned incentives. Progency—a fusion of Platform, Experts, AI Agents, and Kaizen continuous improvement—solves this. It’s not software (which requires internal teams to use it) or traditional agency (which lacks proprietary tech). It’s a complete “department of one” that takes end-to-end responsibility for Rest customer growth without burdening internal teams.
  • Alpha-Based Pricing: Outcome-based models inspired by hedge fund economics (Alpha-Beta-Carry), where vendors are paid only for incremental gains, not for activity. Instead of paying for seats and sends, brands pay for measurable growth above what would have happened anyway (the baseline). This creates perfect alignment: the marketing partner only succeeds when the brand succeeds. It transforms marketing from a cost centre with uncertain ROI to a profit engine with guaranteed returns.

Together, these innovations transform Rest engagement from “extra cost” to “profit opportunity.”

  1. The Confluence: A Perfect Storm of Necessity and Possibility

What’s different today is the convergence. These five forces don’t just make Rest management possible—they make it inevitable:

  • Market saturation means customer acquisition is drying up and there’s nowhere to hide from the acquisition cost crisis
  • Profitability pressure makes revenue taxes like AdWaste unacceptable and demands retention economics
  • Attention scarcity means engagement is harder than ever, punishing bad engagement and rewarding valuable touchpoints
  • Technology finally enables Rest-focused interventions—individualised daily engagement at scale becomes viable
  • Business models align incentives with outcomes, making it economically sustainable and risk-free

The result is a perfect storm: ignoring Rest is no longer just a missed opportunity; it is reckless economics. The brands that recognise this shift and act now will build sustainable competitive advantages. Marketers who seize this moment can plug the profit leaks, slash AdWaste, and build resilient growth engines.

Those who cling to the old playbook—buying traffic, running broadcast campaigns, ignoring the Best→Rest transition—will find themselves trapped in an endless cycle of reacquisition taxes, watching profits bleed out one Rest customer at a time.

The future belongs to brands that understand a simple truth: the most valuable marketing opportunity isn’t finding new customers, it’s keeping the ones you’ve already paid to acquire. And that battle is won or lost in the Rest segment.

**

The problem is clear. The timing is perfect. But what’s the actual solution? NeoMarketing introduces four integrated breakthroughs that work together as a system to detect, engage, personalise, and rescue Rest customers before they become expensive reacquisition problems. These four solutions work as an integrated system:

  • Hooked Score detects the Best→Rest transition in real-time
  • The Brand Daily provides the daily engagement infrastructure to maintain relationships
  • BrandTwin personalises every touchpoint based on growing individual-level intelligence
  • Rest Rescue systematically intervenes when Hooked Score signals trouble

Together, they transform Rest management from reactive (“we lost customers and don’t know why”) to proactive (“we’re preventing predictable decline before it becomes expensive”). This is the operational backbone of NeoMarketing—the systematic solution to marketing’s most expensive blind spot.

Thinks 1765

WSJ: “Many people assume that restarting a heart takes an electrical charge, perhaps through the pads of a defibrillator. In fact, it requires only one thing: blood. As Mary Roach tells us in “Replaceable You: Adventures in Human Anatomy,” within a minute of being refilled with blood “the heart is chugging” on its own, “hanging from the rig by its aorta, beating for no one.” Even heart cells grown in a petri dish will begin to beat—separately, but in unison. Millions of years of evolution have given us an organ so purpose-built for its job that it is almost more difficult to stop a heart than it is to start one. Which raises a question Ms. Roach explores in “Replaceable You”: Can we ever really replace what nature gave us? In seeking to find an answer, she takes us on an incredible journey of discovery, humor, awe and inspiration.”

SaaStr: “Now as AI agents have arrived, and suddenly we’re dealing with something entirely different: workers who operate 24/7/365 without breaks, vacations, or sleep. Your AI agents don’t just work 996. They work 996++. They’re processing data at 3 AM. They’re optimizing campaigns on weekends. They’re analyzing customer feedback during your family dinner. They never stop, never tire, never ask for time off. This isn’t a feature—it’s your biggest operational challenge.”

WSJ: “To some, [Adam] Smith is a critic of centralized power, a skeptic of top-down expertise and a theorist who saw a burgeoning market society rooted in virtue and individual moral responsibility. To others, Smith is a defender of moral equality, a critic of concentrated wealth and a champion of public institutions used to restrain private power. What makes Smith continually relevant is his power to illuminate the tensions at the heart of modern capitalism: the liberating potential of economic growth, the risks of concentrated wealth, the relationship between markets and morality. That we continue to read and debate his ideas today is a reminder that these questions are as unsettled now as they were 250 years ago.”

FT on dictionaries: “Amid the unstoppable shift online, these printed treasuries offer multiple pleasures — and freedom from the endless scroll.”

The Segment Martech Forgot: Why Rest Customers Hold the Key to Profitable Growth (Part 4)

Why Now: The Perfect Storm – 1

If the Rest segment has been overlooked for so long, what makes this the right moment for marketers to act? Several converging forces have turned this long-standing “blind spot” into marketing’s most urgent opportunity.

  1. The Vanishing Pool of “New” Customers

The age of infinite acquisition is over. Most categories are saturated; most consumers already have their preferred brands. Marketers are waking up to an uncomfortable truth: “new customers” increasingly fall into just two groups:

  • Recycled Test customers—those who bought once and left, now reacquired at great cost through retargeting and win-back campaigns.
  • Switchers from competitors—expensively wooed through rising CAC, heavy adtech spends, and aggressive discounts that destroy margins.

In effect, marketers are paying more and more to buy the same customers back, fuelling the AdWaste loop. What they’re calling “acquisition” is actually expensive recycling. Fresh acquisition has become a mirage.

Both paths are brutally expensive. Reacquisition costs 5-10 times more than retention. Competitive switching requires either price wars that destroy margins or ad spend arms races that inflate CAC beyond profitability. When every “new” customer is actually a reacquired or switched customer, the economics flip. You’re not building a base; you’re playing an expensive game of musical chairs.

The only sustainable path is to stop the leak—to keep the customers brands have already paid to acquire. This makes Rest management not optional but existential.

  1. Profitable Growth Pressures: Do More with Less

Boards and investors are no longer dazzled by topline growth alone. The era of “growth at any cost” is over. Profitability has returned to the centre of the conversation, with investors now demanding the Rule of 40: revenue growth rate plus profit margin must exceed 40%. For most brands, this is currently impossible. Marketing budgets have grown 30-50% faster than revenue, creating a structural profitability problem.

This means marketers must do more with less:

  • Extract more value from customers already “through the door”
  • Reduce the 20-30% revenue tax paid to ad platforms and marketplaces
  • Make each relationship yield its full LTV rather than chase costly reacquisition

The maths is simple: retaining and reactivating costs a fraction of reacquiring. CFOs are asking the uncomfortable question: “Why are we spending more to make less?” Rest management directly addresses this profitability crisis. By preventing Best customers from sliding into Test, brands eliminate the most expensive form of revenue tax: paying premium prices to reacquire customers they already owned.

Ignoring Rest customers is no longer affordable. The ROI is immediate and measurable: every customer retained in Rest costs a fraction of what it would cost to reacquire them from Test.

  1. The Engagement Crisis: Customers Are Blocking Brands

The old campaign playbook—broadcast offers, bland newsletters, generic nudges—is collapsing in a world of distraction. The paths for engagement are closing. Consumers are bombarded by social media feeds, influencer chatter, streaming entertainment, and now an avalanche of AI-generated slop. Every irrelevant email or notification nudges a customer closer to the “Block” button.

Customers are overwhelmed, overstimulated, and increasingly ruthless about protecting their attention. Engagement isn’t just declining; it’s dying. The “spray and pray” approach to CRM is actively counterproductive. Send too many irrelevant promotional emails, and customers don’t just ignore you; they block you permanently.

This attention recession makes relationship maintenance more important than ever. To stay in the game, marketers must build distinctive, habit-forming experiences that preserve attention and mental salience, especially for Rest customers. Customers will tolerate—even welcome—daily contact if it provides genuine value: entertainment, utility, learning, or reward. But they’ll punish brands that treat their inbox as a billboard for endless offers.

The Brand Daily approach isn’t just more effective; it’s increasingly the only sustainable model for maintaining customer relationships in an attention-scarce world.

Thinks 1764

OpenAI: “ChatGPT consumer usage is largely about getting everyday tasks done. Three-quarters of conversations focus on practical guidance, seeking information, and writing—with writing being the most common work task, while coding and self-expression remain niche activities. Patterns of use can also be thought of in terms of Asking, Doing, and Expressing. About half of messages (49%) are “Asking,” a growing and highly rated category that shows people value ChatGPT most as an advisor rather than only for task completion. Doing (40% of usage, including about one third of use for work) encompasses task-oriented interactions such as drafting text, planning, or programming, where the model is enlisted to generate outputs or complete practical work. Expressing (11% of usage) captures uses that are neither asking nor doing, usually involving personal reflection, exploration, and play.”

FT: “This looming crisis creates a rare opportunity to rethink the way the internet is funded and come up with a better solution. That solution could make use of AI’s own construction. While a chatbot’s output may seem like an opaque mash-up of its sources, we in fact know how to quantify exactly how much each source contributed. The key to this is the algorithm that AI systems are built on: backpropagation, known colloquially as backprop. Backprop was designed to solve what we in AI call the credit assignment problem. When a network that processes data using billions of parameters sees an image of a dog and says that it’s a cat, we need to know how much each parameter must be changed so that it will do better next time. Backprop’s answer is to wiggle each one just a little, see how the output changes and set the parameter to a new improved value. This system could also be used to solve a different assignment problem: calculating who should be paid when someone uses AI.”

Eric Yuan shares tips to make meetings more productive: “No. 1, you need to prepare: who to invite, who not to invite and a very clear agenda. The second thing, make sure everyone can be themselves. Don’t be too nice, too polite. In a Zoom call, people tend to be so nice. It’s becoming too formal. It’s OK to interrupt a little bit. And after the meeting, you need to have some follow-up.”

Bret Taylor: “One of the things that we do differently at Sierra from traditional software companies is we charge only for outcomes. So for most of our customers, that means when the AI agent autonomously resolves the case that the customer called about or chatted in about, there’s a fee for that. If the AI agent has to transfer to a real person, it’s free. We really like this as a business model, and I think it will become the standard business model for agents because the word “agent” comes from the word “agency,” and the principle of it implies some degree of autonomy. I think most of the most sophisticated agents will actually start and complete a task, whether it’s generating a new lead for your sales team or solving a customer service inquiry or doing a legal analysis for an antitrust review, whatever it might be.”

The Segment Martech Forgot: Why Rest Customers Hold the Key to Profitable Growth (Part 3)

Why The Miss – 2

  1. Organisational Silos: Nobody Owns the Transition

Marketing teams are split into acquisition and CRM, with budgets and bonuses tied to immediate results. Acquisition teams measure success by new customers acquired and ROAS. CRM teams measure success by campaign revenue and engagement rates. But who owns the transition? Who’s responsible for customers in between?

Nobody is rewarded for preventing a Best customer from quietly slipping into Rest. The customer’s slow disengagement falls into the cracks of organisational silos. The retention team’s KPIs focus on Best customer engagement. The reactivation team is measured on win-back campaign performance. The transition itself—the slow leak from Best to Rest to Test—appears on no one’s dashboard and in no one’s objectives.

Furthermore, the true cost of losing a Best customer is rarely calculated holistically. Marketing sees a lower LTV. Finance might notice slightly lower repeat purchase rates. But the full impact—the loss of future revenue, the cost of eventual reacquisition, the lost referrals that customer would have generated—is never fully attributed to the failure to maintain the relationship during the Rest phase.

  1. The Tyranny of Averages: Individuals Lost in Segment Noise

Segmentation is still rooted in broad groups—”30-day buyers,” “90-day engagers,” “Women 25-34.” These averages conceal the real story: individuals transitioning from active to inactive. When millions are lumped together, the micro-patterns of disengagement vanish. The creeping fade of the Rest is lost in the noise of “segment averages.”

This temporal mismatch means relationship-building activities systematically lose to conversion-focused campaigns in every optimisation framework. An email that entertains but doesn’t convert looks like a failure in this week’s report, even though it might prevent a customer from churning six months from now.

The rise of machine learning and AI in marketing has paradoxically made this worse. Algorithms optimise for the metrics they’re given—usually short-term conversion rates. They become extraordinarily good at squeezing incremental revenue from current campaigns whilst being completely blind to the long-term erosion of the customer base.

  1. Technology Limits and Cost Paranoia

Until recently, processing customer-level transitions at scale was computationally expensive. Tracking subtle shifts in engagement for millions of customers required AI and compute power that many brands lacked. The technology to monitor individual-level state transitions in real-time simply wasn’t accessible or affordable.

Equally, the cost of sending additional non-promotional messages felt like a drag on P&L. Email CPMs and WhatsApp/SMS costs trained marketers to equate every send with an expense, not an investment. The fear of “channel fatigue” and unsubscribes made marketers self-censor their engagement frequency—not realising that irrelevance (low engagement) is far more dangerous than frequency when content provides genuine value.

This cost paranoia meant that even when marketers recognised the need for more frequent touchpoints to maintain relationships, the business case couldn’t be made. How do you justify the cost of daily emails that don’t directly drive transactions?

  1. The “Good Products Retain Themselves” Myth

There’s a persistent belief in marketing that if the product is good enough, customers will stay engaged naturally. This product-centric view ignores the reality of modern attention economics. Customers aren’t leaving because your product is bad; they’re leaving because they forgot the brand existed. What marketers forgot is that most customers have category loyalty, not brand loyalty.

In categories with long purchase cycles—insurance, furniture, B2B services—months or years might pass between transactions. During that gap, without sustained touchpoints, the relationship atrophies. Mental availability declines. When the next purchase occasion arises, the brand isn’t in the consideration set—not because the product failed, but because the relationship wasn’t maintained.

**

Together, these reasons paint a clear picture:

  • Martech ignored the metrics that matter
  • Adtech made reacquisition look deceptively easy
  • CRM lacked tools, content, and incentives for relationship building
  • Organisations measured the wrong things and nobody owned the transition
  • Segment averages concealed individual-level decline
  • Technology constraints and cost paranoia reinforced the blind spot
  • Product-centric thinking assumed retention would happen naturally

Traditional martech platforms rather than adtechs became the “strategic enemy” of profitable growth. This is why NeoMarketing represents a genuine paradigm shift. It’s not that marketers were foolish to miss the Rest segment. It’s that the entire infrastructure of modern marketing—the tools, the metrics, the incentives, the organisational structures—was built to optimise everything except the transition that matters most.

Thinks 1763

David Brooks: “A core challenge in life is how do you motivate people to do things — to vote in a certain way, to take a certain kind of action. Good leaders motivate people through what you might call the bright passions — hope, aspiration, an inspiring vision of a better life. But these days, and maybe through all days, leaders across the political spectrum have found that dark passions are much easier to arouse. Evolution has wired us to be extremely sensitive to threat, which psychologists call negativity bias.”

FT: ” In his new book When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows . . ., Pinker explores “common knowledge” — a concept deriving from game theory that describes the state in which not only does everyone know something, but everyone knows that everyone else knows it, and everyone knows that everyone knows that everyone knows. And so on. This idea, Pinker argues, “illuminates many enigmas of our public affairs and personal lives” and constitutes “a keystone in understanding the social world”.”

NYTimes: “Almost 20 years in the making, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny,” by Kiran Desai, is not so much a novel as a marvel. In an era of hot takes and chilly optimized productivity, here is sweet validation of the idea that to create something truly transcendent — a work of art depicting love, family, nature and culture in all their fullness — might take time…Crowded but never claustrophobic, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” is among those most rarefied books: better company than real-life people. Feel the tingle.”

Colossus: “Fortunes are made by entrepreneurs and investors when revolutionary technologies enable waves of innovative, investable companies. Think of the railroad, the Bessemer process, electric power, the internal combustion engine, or the microprocessor—each of which, like a stray spark in a fireworks factory, set off decades of follow-on innovations, permeated every part of society, and catapulted a new set of inventors and investors into power, influence, and wealth. Yet some technological innovations, though societally transformative, generate little in the way of new wealth; instead, they reinforce the status quo. Fifteen years before the microprocessor, another revolutionary idea, shipping containerization, arrived at a less propitious time, when technological advancement was a Red Queen’s race, and inventors and investors were left no better off for non-stop running. Anyone who invests in the new new thing must answer two questions: First, how much value will this innovation create? And second, who will capture it?…The way to invest in AI is to think through the implications of knowledge workers becoming more efficient, to imagine what markets this efficiency unlocks, and to invest in those. For decades, the way to make money was to bet on what the new thing was. Now, you have to bet on the opportunities it opens up.”

The Segment Martech Forgot: Why Rest Customers Hold the Key to Profitable Growth (Part 2)

Why The Miss – 1

If the Rest segment and the Best→Rest transition are so critical to profitability, why have marketers missed such an obvious opportunity? The answer lies not in lack of intelligence but in a perfect storm of misaligned tools, metrics, incentives, and organisational structures.

  1. Martech Myopia: The Metrics That Matter Don’t Exist

Martech platforms have been designed to measure conversion, not transition. Dashboards glow with campaign CTRs, conversion funnels, and revenue attribution—but they rarely surface the warning signals of disengagement. How many brands have automated alerts when a Best customer unsubscribes from a newsletter, ignores five consecutive emails, or blocks the brand on WhatsApp?

In marketing’s triage for revenue, attention is lavished on the “living” (engagers and heavy buyers) and almost none on the “dying” (light buyers quietly drifting away). The dashboard shows what’s working; it rarely highlights what’s quietly breaking. By the time a customer appears in a “win-back” segment, they’ve already completed the journey to Test. The transition—the moment when intervention would have been most effective and least costly—goes unmonitored and unmanaged.

Traditional RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) analysis can theoretically spot declining customers, but it’s typically used for segmentation, not for real-time alerts. The cadence is wrong: monthly reviews when weekly monitoring is needed. The granularity is wrong: segment-level averages when individual-level tracking is required.

  1. The Adtech Comfort Trap: Reacquisition Made Deceptively Easy

The rise of Google and Meta created a seductive shortcut. With ad platforms just a click away, marketers outsourced retention to reacquisition. Why wrestle with the long, hard work of relationship building when adtech promised quick conversions with measurable ROAS?

One marketer told me bluntly: “I have a ROAS of 4 and a gross margin of 70%. Why do I need a CRM team?” What he missed is that ROAS is a melting iceberg: it looks solid now, but as competition rises, costs climb and margins erode. I tried to explain that there’s a desperate need to build direct relationships via owned channels like Brand.com and email—but his focus was on the here and now, not a distant, fuzzy future.

This is the tyranny of the urgent over the important. The short-term comfort of adtech blinded marketers to the long-term economics of customer relationships. Adtech platforms essentially trained marketers to ignore churn because reacquisition felt “easy.” Of course, it’s not actually easy—it’s expensive and getting more expensive. But the pain is diffused across large budgets and multiple campaigns, making it invisible until you calculate the full cost of the reacquisition treadmill.

  1. The Content and Playbook Gap: No Tools for Relationship Building

Even if marketers spotted customers drifting from Best to Rest, what could they actually do? The only levers in their arsenal were more campaigns, deeper discounts, or more desperate offers. But if Best customers are already receiving personalised offers and still disengaging, more of the same won’t work for Rest.

Relationship-building content—tips, stories, useful nudges, entertainment, or education—is fundamentally different from conversion-focused campaigns. It’s harder to create, doesn’t deliver immediate sales uplift, and feels expensive to scale. To a CRM team fighting internally for resources against the acquisition team that can show direct ROAS, “non-transactional” content looks like wasted effort.

Moreover, sending messages that may not result in immediate transactions doesn’t look good in quarterly reviews. The question isn’t “How many Best customers did we prevent from churning?” but rather “How much revenue did you generate last month?” Relationship maintenance is an invisible success; its absence only becomes visible as expensive reacquisition costs—which are usually blamed on “market conditions” rather than CRM failures.

Thinks 1762

NYTimes: “There is a puzzling contradiction at the heart of America’s economy. Investors are sinking more and more money into the stock market. Indexes are reaching record highs. But a growing number of American companies are refusing to participate in public markets at all. Over the past 30 years, the number of companies that sell shares on markets such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq has fallen by roughly 50 percent. Fast-growing big-name companies like Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks and Anduril — companies that in all likelihood would have gone public in the previous decade — are choosing to remain private instead. The impact can be felt in every corner of our economy. The decline of our public markets goes hand in hand with the meteoric rise of private equity, which too often weakens companies and leaves them less committed to their employees, customers, suppliers, lenders and communities. Most everyday investors can no longer buy into some of the country’s fastest-growing businesses. The stock market’s impressive performance, on which so many retirements depend, is growing increasingly tenuous, as its returns rely on an increasingly narrow slice of the economy. Innovation is declining. Economic concentration is increasing.”

WSJ: “Underpinning the boost is artificial intelligence’s voracious consumption of digital storage and rising prices for higher-capacity drives. In its latest financial report, Western Digital said the number of exabytes of storage it shipped—an exabyte is a billion gigabytes—rose to 190, up 32% from a year earlier. Seagate shipped 45% more of its own exabytes in the same period. As long as the AI story stays intact—and most recent signs point to it sustaining for a while—there’s little doubt the trajectory for hard drives will keep rising. There will likely be some lumpiness over the next few years as companies rush to buy hard drives and then spend time filling them up. But AI is different in important ways from other tech transitions that have lifted sales.”

FT: “The way Ukraine is defending itself has undergone an unexpected (and still often unrecognised) shift. Back in 2022, when Russia started its full-scale invasion, Kyiv had to use its existing Soviet-style kit plus Javelin shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles. Then came western donations of weaponry like Abrams tanks and Himars (high mobility artillery rocket systems). Next, Ukraine’s army of software engineers started using hobby drones, made by Chinese companies such as DJI, first for surveillance, then attacks and defence. Now they are innovating to dramatically extend drone flight range, increase attack capabilities, “swarm” and avoid electronic jamming by using fibre optic cables, balloons and (most crucially) AI. The Russians are doing the same. And that has transformed the nature of war: a world where cheap drones can destroy ultra-expensive ships and planes changes the power dynamics and economics of combat. “Western systems which were impactful initially are now of very mixed effectiveness,” David Petraeus, a former US army general, told a conference in Kyiv.”

SaaStr: “On one hand, token costs are plummeting. What cost $50 last year might cost $5 next year. The efficiency gains are real and dramatic. On the other hand, we’re finding ways to use 10x, 100x, even 1000x more tokens per use case as we discover what’s actually possible when you throw more and more AI horsepower at complex business problems. As Amjad Masad CEO of Replit noted, we’re in this odd economic moment where we’re simultaneously: driving unit costs down by orders of magnitude, [and] driving usage up by orders of magnitude.”