Thinks 599

strategy+business: ““We think of organizations as decision factories,” write professors Don A. Moore and Max H. Bazerman in their new book, Decision Leadership. It’s an apt simile. Knowledge workers, whose output is typically decision-driven, now number more than 1 billion worldwide. Moreover, as the number of rote tasks that are automated increases, many more employees are being freed for higher-level work that entails decision-making…“We aim to define leadership in a new way, one grounded in the belief that leaders’ success depends not only on their ability to make good decisions but also on their ability to help others make wise decisions,” they write. “In our view, great leaders create the norms, structures, incentives, and systems that allow their direct reports, the broader organization, consumers, investors, and other stakeholders to make decisions that maximize collective benefit through value creation.” To support their new definition of leadership, Moore and Bazerman seek to weave together the various threads of behavioral economics that pertain to decision-making and then translate them into practical advice for leaders who want to both improve the quality of their own decisions and bolster the decision prowess of their companies.”

50xpodcast looks interesting. “We track the often circuitous route to exceptional long-term returns, exploring the foundations of value creation and how that rarest of investment commodities—conviction—is created, maintained, threatened, and sometimes lost…We look in detail at an investment that has appreciated at least 50-fold. From the seat of the professional investor and occasionally the CEO, we explore its origins, evolution, and eventual outcome, studying key themes around long-term value creation ranging from operations, capital allocation, and culture to pivotal buy and sell decisions. To enhance the quality and depth of our interviews, we rigorously study each asset in advance, diving into all available public and private resources.” The first company analysed: TransDigm. “Since inception in 1993, TransDigm has returned over 1,750X its primary equity and a remarkably evenly distributed 36% IRR.”

Read: Death and the Conjuror by Tom Mead. It is a locked-room mystery.

Web3 and India: A Wrong Turn (Part 3)

Now

Internet access remained a challenge in India for more than 20 years. We never really made it to the wired broadband era. High costs and limited access to desktop connectivity meant that the user base in India stayed low (compared to potential) through the first two Web cycles. It was only with Jio’s launch and the availability of cheap smartphones that Internet usage exploded in India. Today, thanks to competition, wired and wireless connectivity is easily available and at very affordable prices. This is what has spurred the Internet startups even as the absolute number of transacting users is limited by income. Capital is available in plenty as even a 50-100 million consumer base puts India among the larger Internet markets globally.

There are three types of startups blossoming in India: the B2C/D2C companies which seeks to deliver everything to us from anywhere in the country, B2B SaaS companies riding the shift to the cloud, and others solving problems in various verticals from agriculture to education to health (what I call the *tech – “startech” – companies). 90% or more of the companies will fail as is the nature of entrepreneurship. But the innovators who succeed will transform industries and individual lives, and create enough wealth to keep the investment cycle going.

Having seen the early days of the Internet, I sense a similar excitement with Web3. The crypto foundations are enabling a decentralised future built on the blockchain. Even as much of the attention is focused on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (and more recently, the sharp fall in their value), there are many other applications being built. This is the “whole wide world” of Web3. From land records to loyalty programs, from financial inclusion to fashion provenance – the applications of the “chain” are many. It is in the world that for the first time India-domiciled companies and entrepreneurs have an opportunity to get in at ground zero and compete on a level playing field. It is this world that the Indian government policies, taxation and regulation is hurting. Entrepreneurs and investors don’t like uncertainty and that is exactly what is happening in India’s Web3 space. Given a history of “retrospective” actions and taxation by Indian governments, it is the rare brave entrepreneur who will create a Web3 company based in India. And when capital moves, so do people – and so does eventual wealth creation.

This is the fork in the road: the 1995 moment in India’s Web3 future. No bureaucrat or government policy maker whose tenure is measured in months will be bold enough to create a welcoming framework for Web3 startups. And so Indian entrepreneurs will simply go to Dubai or Switzerland or whichever country welcomes them. For once, can India’s government do the right thing – which is to simply promise freedom to entrepreneurs, and a freedom that no future retro policy will take away? Because Web3 promises to remake our tomorrow in ways we cannot even imagine.

Thinks 598

Roger Martin about his book “A New Way to Think: Your Guide to Superior Management Effectiveness: “If you base your strategy on analyzing the past, then you are implicitly making the assumption that the future will be identical to the past. Because it’s based on rigorous analysis—and you’ve been taught in business school that rigorous analysis is correct—then you will not be ready for the future to end up looking different than the past, and you’re more likely to stick with your strategy for longer because it’s ‘right,’ based on the analysis…It’s mainly an exercise in freeing people up, in saying to them that in order to shape your strategy for the future, you don’t have to go by what the data say. What you can do is imagine things that you think would be better for us, better for the consumer, better for the world, etcetera, and then we’ll test those.”

FT on the idea of a “tactical meeting”: “The format comes from Holacracy, a type of flat organisational structure, but tactical meetings can be useful regardless of how your company is organised. A tactical starts with some general housekeeping: everyone checks in, then a facilitator runs through action items from the previous tactical, and receives updates on whether they’ve been completed. A note taker checks off action items and records other relevant details, such as if the due date of a project has changed. It’s important that these updates don’t spin off into discussions — hold questions and concerns for the next phase of the meeting. Next, build a rapid-fire agenda of “tensions” — these can be questions, requests, updates, or other issues that need buy-in or collaboration from the group…Once the agenda is set, work through each tension. Problems aren’t necessarily solved within the meeting, but as long as a next step is discussed and assigned to someone as an action item, then you can declare the “tension resolved”, cross it off, and move on to the next one.”

Read: Portrait of an Unknown Woman by Daniel Silva

Web3 and India: A Wrong Turn (Part 2)

1995

I was an entrepreneur during the early days of the Internet. After having returned to India from the US in mid-1992 to fulfil a promise I made to my father, I had experienced over two-and-a-half years of failure with my various startup ideas. It was in late 1994 that I realised that the World Wide Web (as it was then called) had the potential to bridge distance and connect people into an electronic marketplace. My big idea was to build an Indian information service (portal) for Indians globally – offering news, stock quotes, cricket scores, recipes and more. I launched IndiaWorld, India’s first Internet portal, in March 1995 – just around the time Yahoo and eBay went live with their services.

It wasn’t an easy launch. Commercial Internet services were not available in India at that time. The government had a monopoly on telecommunications in India. I hosted the content on a server outside India. Initially, I used a connection to ERNET (education and research network) to upload the content on the US server. When a bureaucrat disconnected my connection (ostensibly on the grounds that I was using it for “commercial purposes”), I tried to argue that many other Indian “commercial” organisations were also using the service. When I called up a Secretary in the Indian government, he refused to speak because he was “watching TV and didn’t want to be disturbed.” When I brought up the issue at an Indian business conference in the Bay Area after my connection was cut to a senior Indian Cabinet Minister, I was chastised by the organisers for “spoiling India’s name.” This was the (un)ease of doing business in India in mid-1995.

But entrepreneurs always find a way. In India, we call it ‘jugaad.’ For entrepreneurs, it is a matter of survival. With my dial-up connection to ERNET cut and no other alternatives available, I had to make international dial-up calls to a Web service provider in the US to upload the data daily. The time and money needed to do this increased manifold, but updates were never delayed.

In August 1995, VSNL (the government-owned PSU which had a monopoly on international communications) launched dial-up Internet access in India. It cost Rs 100 an hour – a big relief when regular international dialling cost about the same for a minute. That helped solve my data upload problem. Had I given up a few months ago when my dial-up connection was cut, the story of my life would have been very different.

Short-sighted policies by India’s government and regulators delayed the growth of India’s Internet through the Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 eras. Indian entrepreneurs could have created the Googles and Facebooks but for that they needed to move outside India. India lost a huge wealth creation opportunity with bad Internet policies in the late 1990s and the subsequent years.

Thinks 597

David Gergen about his book, “Hearts Touched With Fire: How Great Leaders are Made“: “I think it’s time for the older generation to step aside and pass the baton to the new generation. I’m included among that. Those of us who are older can still be helpful, we can still support people who are younger, we can still offer counsel if it’s requested, we can still do things at the community level, but we need fresh energy in this country. We need fresh leadership, and that has to come, not just at the community level, but at the national level as well. I think we can do it. I think we’re capable of doing that, but we have to get on with it…People love to tear down. It’s almost like playing King of the Mountain, a game where you want to get to the top of a mound to be king of the mountain, and somebody else wants to pull you down right away. That’s sort of how our political and public life is these days.”

Matthew Hennessey: “Prices coordinate markets. Like buoys on a lake, they help market participants – buyers and sellers – navigate when they can’t see shore. They provide markers on an unmapped route.” [via CafeHayek]

Eleanor Roosevelt on the link between personal philosophy and action: ““One’s philosophy is not best expressed in words; it is expressed in the choices one makes. In the long run, we shape our lives and we shape ourselves. The process never ends until we die. And the choices we make are ultimately our own responsibility.” [via Shane Parish]

Web3 and India: A Wrong Turn (Part 1)

Hit or Miss

A recent headline in the Economic Times read: “Web3: Will India miss the bus to the Internet’s future?” Here are a few excerpts from the story:

Of the dozen Web3 startups ET Prime spoke with, over half of them have moved out of India. According to experts, as more such companies move overseas, India will not only miss the Web3 bus but also lose millions in tax dollars.

…It’s not a new phenomenon since India’s earliest unicorns such as Flipkart and InMobi are registered in Singapore. But with Web3, the scale is probably much higher. Over the last one year, many startups have shifted their base to Dubai, which is becoming a major centre for crypto innovation…The reason behind all of them moving out of India is the same — lack of regulatory clarity.

…Regulatory issues apart, there is another reason why founders are registering their companies overseas — funding…The lack of regulatory clarity in India has made it tough for investors to fund Web3 companies with ease in the country.

…Rashmi R Padhy, vice president – business operations, WazirX, a cryptocurrency exchange, agrees. He says that during the first two stages of the Internet’s evolution, companies like Facebook and Google emerged. Meanwhile, India could only become a service provider to these companies. Even with the mobile revolution, India was late into the game, he adds. “I think we are seeing another cycle come up now in Web3. My fear is that with the current approach, India is again going to get left out and will become the service provider for Web3. By the time we understand it, we will be late, and India will have missed the bus again,” Padhy says.

After attending a crypto/blockchain conference in the US a couple months ago, this is what I had written: “My starting belief was that there is a fundamentally new Internet being built, bringing back memories of the mid-1990s. I was not wrong; the excitement among the speakers brought back the heady days of the early Internet era, one which I saw and participated in first hand…My view, reinforced after the conference, is that these are early days in the creation of the next generation Internet infrastructure – decentralised, permissionless, ownership, built on cryptography, enabled by blockchain. It is up to entrepreneurs to ask the question: what is centralised today that can be decentralised? And from there will sprout a range of businesses…A new future is coming with the collision of Web3/blockchain, gamification, the creator economy and the metaverse. It will take many years to play out. Just like the Internet…If you are an entrepreneur or a CEO of a big business, pay attention to the Web3 world that is emerging. Plenty of capital and an awesome array of talent is leading the way in creating new ways for us to live, work, entertain and socialise.”

Just like Web 1.0 and Web 2.0, Web3 is going to become the foundation for a new wave of technological innovations. Entrepreneurs and investors are working together to bring new things to life. With India having both a critical mass of consumers and the tech talent, for the first time there is an opportunity to play on a level playing field with global companies. But uncertainty and excessive regulation are business killers. Will India’s government do the right thing and take a hands-off approach like it did with IT services and let businesses thrive? Or will it limit economic freedom with its short-sighted politics and let another trillion-dollar wealth creation opportunity pass by?

Thinks 596

Sandeep Dayal about his book “Branding between the Ears: Using Cognitive Science to Build Lasting Customer Connections“: “When you look at cognitive psychology, neuroscience, behavioral economics, linguistics, and social anthropology, they have one thing in common: they’ve all been trying to understand why people behave in a certain way, and they’ve all been trying to understand, “How does the human brain work?” All of that knowledge has been applied in different areas, such as public policy, investing, and finance, but, for whatever reason, it wasn’t applied to branding. If you think about what branding is, it’s about influencing consumer choice, and if you’re going to influence consumer choice, then you want to understand how the brain works so that you can be more effective in making those influences work…Ninety-five percent of the time, we are making brand choices instinctively, and only 5 percent of the time will we sit around and create a spreadsheet or a systematic comparison. So then, how do we make choices instinctively? We rely on certain simplifying rules, and those rules are stored in our brains. Some people call these rules cognitive biases, but I prefer to call them ‘cognitive wisdom’ because they help us get by in life.”

FT: “Eric Schmidt…thinks the next big thing is the “bioeconomy”, not the internet. This catch-all label, Schmidt explained to me at the Aspen Ideas forum last month, describes “the use of biological processes to make use of things that we consume and manufacture… advances in essentially molecular biology… plus advances in AI have allowed us to do new techniques and grow new things.” Helpfully, he listed a few innovations this economy might include: new plastics that naturally degrade without polluting water, “biologically neutral” cement that does not hurt the environment, soil microbes that reduce fertiliser use, soy-based roof-coating that reduces urban heat and, my favourite, compostable dining ware such as edible forks. Put another way, the bioeconomy is based on stuff that is grown using synthetic biology.”

Thomas Sowell: “Going into debt to create long-term investments makes as much sense for the government as for a private individual’s borrowing more than his annual income to buy a house. By the same token, people who borrow more than their annual income to pay for lavish entertainment this year are simply living beyond their means and probably heading for big financial trouble. The same principle applies to government expenditures for current benefits, with the costs being passed on to future generations.” [via CafeHayek]

She Will Transform India (Part 4)

Endgame

The primaries process for candidate selection was all digital via the Nayi Disha app. As candidate after candidate was announced, even the laggard constituencies caught up, and very soon and much before the announcement of the Lok Sabha elections, all 543 candidates had been identified. These were women who until a few months ago were leading their regular lives. The excitement and opportunity to do something about India’s future had brought them to the forefront. As their profiles started becoming public, even the naysayers started coming around. Here were qualified Indians (who just happened to be educated women without a political background) who stood a good chance of transforming India – provided they could win the elections against the established national and regional parties.

She was one of those 543. Till mid-2023, she had been working as a marketing executive in one of India’s fast-growing startups. Her dream then was to become an entrepreneur and build her own company. And then along came Nayi Disha’s app. She signed up. Her love for reading since childhood and public speaking in college helped her rise through the ranks. She came into her own in the digital debates. Her sharp intellect and calm rebuttals shone through, and she made her way up to win her primary. She won people over with her distinctive articulation of the Nayi Disha agenda. “This election is about you and your future. You are capable of a lot but have been chained by government rules. Politicians and their parties kept you poor. They make money in your name. They take away many times more than what they give you. You don’t need the government welfare schemes as a crutch. You need Dhan Vapasi and the economic freedom that the Nayi Disha agenda will bring you. For the next few years, the single focus we in India need is wealth creation. Not A vs B, not India v China. It is not a zero-game. For you to get more, you have to work so others also become better off. This desire and drive for betterment is what should drive us all.”

She was one among the 543 candidates. Similar stories of passion and persuasion were played out across the country. This was a new kind of politics. There was no single leader, no God-like face. But hundreds of local leaders, each supported by thousands. What had started off as an app had become a movement, an irresistible and unstoppable force for change and good. It blew away everything in its path – every established leader and party was soundly defeated in the 2024 elections.

She won the internal battle for leadership to become Prime Minister. She had just made her first speech in Parliament. The agenda was clear. She represented the hopes for a billion Indians – hungry for change, seeking jobs and opportunities, wanting a tomorrow better than today. She was going to make it happen. She, with her 542 colleagues, would transform India.

Thinks 595

Benedict Evans: “The breakthrough of the web was effectively that you get this phrase “permissionless innovation.” That anybody could just make stuff and distribute it instantly to everybody on Earth. And you don’t need to get a carriage deal with every telco in every country. You don’t need to get a distribution deal. You don’t need to go and talk to a publishing company. What the internet did, you could say, is massively expanded the scope of the free market. Because by analogy, you could say that telcos and publishing companies and so on were central planning. That they were this massive bottleneck on what you could do.”

Tips for Productivity, Thinking, and Doing by Nabeel Qureshi. Among them: “Do the most important thing first thing in the morning, and don’t check social media until you’ve done it. Because energy compounds, the first actions in the day matter a lot: the right actions get you into a positive spiral, the wrong actions get you into a negative spiral. The further into a negative spiral you get, the harder it is to get out. So if you start the morning by doing something you care about (e.g. writing a page of an essay), you are way more likely to have a good, productive and happy day overall, because you’ve gotten yourself into a positive spiral.”

Sebastian Mallaby: “The real test for crypto is whether it creates services that non-crypto people care about. On this, the jury is still out, but the tentative evidence is promising. Digital tokens can create clever customer incentives — think a more sophisticated version of air miles. Crypto payments may generate cheaper ways to remit money across borders. Play-to-earn computer games, with digital assets that users stash in personal wallets, may bring a new dimension to the already vast gaming industry…Today’s internet renders frictionless the storage, transfer and sharing of information. Already, we cannot imagine life without it. Tomorrow’s crypto- and blockchain-enhanced internet may achieve the same for value.”

She Will Transform India (Part 3)

Criteria

The final phase of the Nayi Disha power roadmap was made public when the membership reached 20%. The rules of engagement were put forth. With 20% committed voters, there was still a lot of ground to cover to win elections. But there was enough momentum that the possibility could be imagined. When the membership hit 30% in a constituency, primaries would be held to decide the candidate who could represent the Nayi Disha base. What was unusual were the criteria put forth. Only women could contest; they had to be under 55 years of age; they had to have minimum education qualifications (12th standard completion); they could not have contested any previous election on a political party ticket. There would also be term limits: no person could serve more than two terms in the same position.

At first, the constraints freaked out some people. Women only? Education requirements? Age bar? This was discrimination! For an agenda which spoke about non-discrimination and treating all Indians the same, this was hypocrisy!

It was then that the Nayi Disha Papers started getting published. Modeled on the lines of the Federalist Papers written in the US to garner support in favour of the Constitution in the late 1780s, these papers explained the logic of each of the criteria. They also went further and laid out the roadmap for a future Nayi Disha government.

At the outset, it was clear that to win against the formidable incumbents needed a very different strategy. Playing by the existing rules of the game and creating yet another political party would make no difference. Instead, every contestant would be an Independent. This way, it was a bottom-up movement and it would stay that way. Once elected, the Independents would choose their leader – much like many political parties do. (The late 2022 example of the British Conversative Party was put forth.)

Women made up half the Indian population, and yet were barely represented in the Lok Sabha – just 1 in 7 MPs was a woman, and many among them were there as members of a political family. Women had an equal vote share and yet were ignored when it came to governance. An extreme idea to only have women candidates could potentially galvanise women voters.

The age criteria was put because India is a young nation. The average age of its citizens is 25 years. To face future challenges, it needed MPs who could relate to the problems faced by the youth and then work to address them. Politicians in their 70s who refused to let go were not what the nation needed.

Education is important because it makes one think independently. Without the ability to read and write fluently, an elected MP would always be dependent on someone else – and that would not be right in the Lok Sabha. Of course, less educated leaders have reached high positions in politics but their narrow world view has been the bane of Indian politics and economic decision-making.

The decision to ensure no political baggage amongst candidates was taken to eliminate turncoats. Nayi Disha needed fresh thinking – not an opportunistic switching of career politicians who saw which way the wind was blowing.

As the persuasive explanations made their way to people, support started increasing even further for Nayi Disha. It was seen as a real disruptor with a real potential to transform India. Women matching the criteria started applying for contesting primaries.