Mu and Prediction Markets (Part 2)

Background – 1

Wikipedia: “Prediction markets (also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures or event derivatives) are open markets where specific outcomes can be predicted using financial incentives. Essentially, they are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can indicate what the crowd thinks the probability of the event is…Prediction markets can be thought of as belonging to the more general concept of crowdsourcing which is specially designed to aggregate information on particular topics of interest. The main purposes of prediction markets are eliciting aggregating beliefs over an unknown future outcome. Traders with different beliefs trade on contracts whose payoffs are related to the unknown future outcome and the market prices of the contracts are considered as the aggregated belief.”

ChatGPT in response to “What are Prediction Markets?”: “Prediction markets, also known as “information markets” or “event futures,” are exchange-traded markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events. The market prices can be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event occurring. Participants in the market can buy and sell contracts that represent the possible outcomes of an event, and the prices of these contracts fluctuate based on supply and demand. The market prices can be used to forecast the likelihood of future events, and can be used by organizations to make better decisions by aggregating the collective wisdom of market participants.”

Investopedia: “Prediction markets are similar to futures markets for commodities or other financial asset prices. In futures markets, traders bid up or down the price of a future contract based on their expectation of what the future price of the underlying asset will be. Prediction markets are just futures markets where the future event being traded upon is something other than the price of an asset at some point in the future. Prediction markets involve a collection of people speculating on a variety of events—exchange averages, election results, quarterly sales results, or even gross movie receipts. Robin Hanson, a professor at George Mason University, is an advocate of prediction markets. He makes the case for prediction markets by emphasizing the removal of reliance on self-interested punditry by so-called experts. “Instead, let us create betting markets on most controversial questions, and treat the current market odds as our best expert consensus. The real experts (maybe you), would then be rewarded for their contributions, while clueless pundits would learn to stay away,” Hanson says.”

Tyler Cowen (Mar 2021): “Prediction markets [are] contracts with payoffs contingent on some real-world event…In essence, [they] let people “bet” on some feature of the economy, thereby creating a new financial derivative. A prediction market in gross domestic product, or perhaps in local rates of unemployment, could be a useful means of hedging risk. If you are afraid that GDP will fall, you could “short” GDP in a prediction market and thus protect your overall economic position, because your bet would pay out if GDP came in lower than expected. Prediction markets are also a useful means of discovering information about what is likely to happen next. If you want to know who is likely to win the Super Bowl, is there any better place to look than the published betting odds? By the same reasoning, various interest rate futures markets offer clues about what the Federal Reserve might be planning. The value of having more and better public information is another reason to encourage prediction markets…For a prediction market to take off, it probably has to satisfy a few criteria: general enough to attract widespread interest; important enough to matter; and unusual enough not to be replicable by trading in existing assets. The outcomes also need to be sufficiently well-defined that contract settlement is not in dispute.”

Daniel E. O’Leary writes in a brief survey of prediction markets: “In prediction markets, participants buy and sell stocks. Each stock’s price is tied to a different event happening in the future. Information about the future is captured in the stock prices…The prices reflect the traders’ aggregated beliefs about the probability of their winning – a higher price means a higher perceived likelihood of winning…Although using play money makes it possible for many people to participate, one potential challenge for prediction markets that don’t use real money is gaining and maintaining interested participants. Despite using different devices to keep up engagement, such as leader boards indicating who has accumulated the biggest portfolio, there is literally no money on the table to keep participants interested in the market.”

Thinks 782

From the book “Missing in Action“: “A fundamental concept underlying economic reasoning and public policy is the property rights system. To an Indian, the phrase ‘right to property’ conjures up the image of a rapacious zamindar exploiting peasants. This narrative has fostered a zero-sum perception—owning property is assumed to have occurred in the context of the violation of someone else’s human rights. This perception has, in turn, meant that the enforcement of property rights has always been weak in India. Once a fundamental right, the right to property under the Indian Constitution was deprecated to a constitutional right by the 44th amendment. Now the State can go about violating an individual’s right over their property, as long as it can couch this takeover is being done under vaguely defined ‘public interest’.”

Shane Parrish: “Here is something counterintuitive: it’s easier to do something daily rather than a few times a week…Doing something every day turns desired behavior into default behavior. When willpower is lacking, routine takes over.”

Technology Review: 10 breakthrough technologies of 2023. “CRISPR for high cholesterol, AI that makes images, a chip design that changes everything (RISC-V), Mass-market military drones, Abortion pills via telemedicine, Organs on demand, the inevitable EV, James Webb Space Telescope, Ancient DNA analysis, Battery recycling.”

Nathan Baschez: “You’ve probably heard the phrase “writing is thinking” before. The idea is that as you put thoughts into words, the thoughts themselves start to change, and new thoughts emerge. I’ve experienced the transformative power of putting words to paper, and it alone is a great reason to take the time to write. But there are also other, less well-publicized benefits to writing. Here are five use cases that I’ve found to be most useful and interesting…Writing is managing, engineering, searching, testing, and leading.”

Tanay Jaipuria on the state of Generative AI. “The rapid speed of development of Generative AI is transforming the way we think about technology. Not only has it opened up a world of creative possibilities, but it has also made numerous everyday tasks easier and more efficient.”

WSJ: “If India’s economy had kept pace with China over the past 40 years, India would currently have a GDP of $10 trillion instead of $2.73 trillion. Between the military spending an economy of that size can support and the economic and political clout it would give Indian businesspeople and diplomats, there would be no “China threat” in the Indo-Pacific. When and if the gap between India and China begins to close, the balance of power in Asia will also start to shift, and China will need to rethink its approach to regional and world politics. America’s problem in Asia is not that China is too rich. It is that India is too poor. In the short to medium term, the imbalance between the two Asian giants requires the U.S. to work with our allies to keep Chinese ambitions and power in check. But even as we focus on the clear and present danger, we must keep the big picture in mind. The U.S. and India have disagreed and will disagree on many things, but America’s national interests are firmly tied to India’s success.”

Mu and Prediction Markets (Part 1)

Questions

I have been fascinated by prediction markets for some time. The idea of using the wisdom of crowds (or a subset) to predict future outcomes as opposed to relying on a few experts is quite compelling.

As part of IndiaWorld, I had built an Indian Political Stock Exchange in 1998-99 to attempt to use the wisdom of crowds to predict the outcome of the Indian elections. I had borrowed the idea from an early version of a prediction market for movies, HSX (Hollywood Stock Exchange). It worked well initially but once people realised that they could get free ‘virtual money’ by creating multiple accounts the concept collapsed. Since then I have followed the Iowa Electronic Markets for an alternate perspective on US elections. [More on IEM: “The faculty at the University of Iowa developed the IEM to be an Internet-based teaching and research tool. It allows students to invest real money ($5.00-$500.00) and to trade in a variety of contracts. You may be familiar with the best-known part of the IEM, the political markets. Here students can trade “shares” of political candidates or parties (the payoff depends on the election results). Students also have the opportunity to trade in contracts whose eventual payoff depends on a future event such as an economic indicator, a company’s quarterly earnings, a corporation’s stock price returns or a movie’s box office receipts.”]

While opinion polls and surveys are the norm globally for political predictions, prediction markets could provide an interesting alternative. Who will win India’s 2024 elections? Or even the many state elections in 2023? What will India’s GDP growth be in FY 24? Will India make it to the final of the cricket Test Championship? Who will win IPL 2023? What will the Sensex close at the end of 2023? Will there be a new Covid wave in 2023? What will be the highest temperature in India in the summer of 2023? How many cars and 2-wheelers will be sold in 2023? While we can rely on experts (or even the grey market – the satta bazaar) to get some answers, the “wisdom of crowds” can provide an alternate (and perhaps better) view on outcomes.

With prediction markets playing one person’s expectations versus another, current entities face two drawbacks because of their use of real money for participation: customers are limited, and the operating companies invite regulation. So, I started thinking about creating a prediction market using Mu as the token for participation. As long as Mu could be decoupled from real-world (fiat) money, it could stay away from regulation, and there could also be mass participation. Mu could be earned via participation in brand activities (for attention, data and referrals), and then could be spent in prediction markets (along with the other options I have discussed earlier: gamelets, shop, marketplace, and exchange). Could Mu crypto tokens power next-generation prediction markets? This is what I consider in this series. Before we get to the how, let us start by understanding prediction markets.

Thinks 781

Eamonn Butler: “As Richard Cobden realised, the non-material, non-economic benefits of trade are also profound. Regardless of their economic impact, the choice, innovation, and progress that are brought by trade improve our lives and the world we live in. Trade brings us better clothing, a better diet, better healthcare, better technology and much else. Peace, which is not only valuable in its own right but also essential to economic life, is also promoted by trade, because trade demands that we deal with people from outside our own country and culture. To trade well with others, we must come to understand – and respect, or at least tolerate – their values. Such familiarity diminishes any hostility we may have towards them.” [via CafeHayek]

FT: “It is a quarter of a century since the first quantum bits, or qubits, were hooked together to make a rudimentary quantum computer. With their ability to represent both the ones and zeros in traditional computers at the same time, qubits are the most basic components of systems that could far surpass today’s computers in solving certain types of problem. Since then, headway has depended less on hard science than on applied engineering: creating more stable qubits that can hold their quantum state for more than a tiny fraction of a second, linking them together in larger systems and coming up with new forms of programming to exploit the characteristics of the technology…The quantum age is unlikely to unfold with the same sense of metronomic inevitability. It has the potential to deliver big surprises, both on the upside and downside. A global race is on to devise new techniques to control and exploit quantum effects, and to create far more effective algorithms — raising the possibility of sudden leaps in performance.”

Token Dispatch: “A soulbound token is a type of token that is unique in the way that it is tied to an individual’s identity. It is called “soulbound” because it is bound to the identity of the person who holds it and can only be transferred or used by that person. This differs from traditional tokens, which can be freely transferred between individuals without restrictions. The concept of soulbound tokens is based on the idea that every individual has a unique digital identity, which can be verified using blockchain technology. Linking a token to an individual’s identity can represent ownership of digital assets, such as digital collectibles, virtual real estate, and other forms of digital property. Additionally, soulbound tokens can be used as a form of identification, allowing individuals to prove their identity online and access certain services or platforms.”

WSJ: “The World Trade Organization, the embodiment of [the] rules-based order, has increasingly been sidelined as countries turn to export controls, subsidies and tariffs to promote domestic industries or kneecap adversaries….[The] clash exemplifies the tensions chipping away at the world trading system. Under the WTO and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, members tacitly agreed not to invoke national security, says William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That tacit agreement no longer exists. If others follow U.S. precedent, “the whole system is useless: It invites everyone to make a national security claim every time.””

WSJ: “Once suitable only for making prototypes, 3-D printing is now reliable enough for mass-produced commercial products, upending the way manufacturing works…3-D printing, also known as “additive manufacturing,” generally works by adding tiny layers of material—usually powdered metal or plastic—one at a time to form an item, and fusing them with binding agents, lasers or other methods. Thus, parts are “grown” instead of forged, cast, molded, or machined as in traditional manufacturing. Just a decade ago, this kind of manufacturing was, with rare exceptions, suitable only for creating prototypes. What’s different now is that newer technology lets these systems print objects strong enough to be used in finished products—and relatively quickly. Recently, for example, General Motors made 60,000 weatherproof seals using 3-D printing, in plastic, rather than making them the old-fashioned way, to make sure it could deliver its 2022 Chevy Tahoe on time. The forthcoming Cadillac Celestiq, an “ultra-luxury” vehicle, will include more than 100 3-D-printed parts. BMW is making broad use of 3-D-printed parts throughout its lineup. Mercury Marine is producing its newest V12, 600-horsepower outboard motor with 3-D-printed molds.”

Bloomberg: “Since the end of the Cold War, however, progressives and conservatives have largely converged in a broad consensus about globalization, international finance and liberal free trade. As the old ideological battles over economic interests became increasingly irrelevant, fights over cultural, national and racial identities began to take their place. Instead of clear interests, politics now appeal more and more to people’s emotions, about what it means to be British (or English), or American, or Jewish, or White, gay, transgender or Black. When those emotions involve existential fears of losing status to outsiders, or immigrants, or ethnic and religious minorities, extremist appeals become much more potent.”

My Life System #50: Friends – 2

There are many other friendships: some one-to-one, and some in a group. What’s important is that each serves a purpose of enriching life in its own way. We all accept each other for what we are; there is no class or status barrier that limits conversation. For friends, we are just the way we were when we first met. Some friendships may fade away with time, but that doesn’t diminish their importance; every time we have felt lonely, we will find that someone has reached out to us and helped us through a difficult period.

Marisa Franco writes in “Platonic”: “When we have felt connected, we’ve grown. We’ve become more open, more empathic, bolder. When we have felt disconnected, we’ve withered. We’ve become closed off, judgmental, or distant in acts of self-protection. Our personalities, alongside the way we show up as friends, then, are shaped by our past—we feel lovable because someone loved us well. We are prickly because someone hasn’t loved us enough…When we feel accepted and loved, it helps us develop certain qualities that lead us to continue to connect better (the rich get richer, as they say).”

Lydia Denworth adds in “Friendship”: “Invisible but essential, it’s the web of connections we forge with others, the network of individuals whose actions and emotions affect us just as we affect them. We may be separate beings, but we are deeply bound, as if there truly were silken threads tying us all together physiologically. Our personal webs of connection include our family members, our romantic partners, and our friends…A friendship is an organism that shifts its shape across our life spans according to our abilities and our availability—in other words, according to how much we open ourselves to its possibilities. While there is natural variation in our taste and need for companionship, there are some universals in what draws us together or throws us apart. And there is a bottom line—a biological need for connection that must be met to achieve basic health and well-being.”

Science is only now explaining what we have perhaps known intuitively.

Friends can drift apart. It has also happened to me. And each of the few times that it has happened, I have regretted it. It started with something small and then I let ego get in the way and refused to reconnect, ultimately reaching a point of no return. Losing a close friend is like losing a limb. The hurt never fully heals. While time does reduce the pain, there is always that element of regret and the playback of what either of us could have done differently to prevent the break.

Build friendships, and especially some close ones. They will enrich life. Friendship is a two-way street; it requires us to invest time, effort and feelings. While the returns cannot be measured in monetary terms, when we look back at the balance sheet of life, we will find that good friends, rather than money, were what delivered the real joy in our lives.

I hope that each of us can say these words from Bette Midler to the friends in our lives:

Did you ever know that you’re my hero
And everything I would like to be?
I can fly higher than an eagle
For you are the wind beneath my wings

Thinks 780

S Shanthi writes about proficorns: “Proficorns is basically a term used for companies that are profitable. Rajesh Jain, founder and managing director, Netcore Cloud, who apparently coined the word defines proficorn as a company having four characteristics: profitable, private, promoter-funded and having a reasonable valuation (say, $100 million or more). In a 2020 blogpost, he spoke about how and why he coined this word. “In a recent Netcore Advisory Board meeting, one of the members remarked that Netcore had built a very interesting and different model – of profitable growth, without raising external capital. This needed to be talked about more, as an alternative to the “unicorn” growth model – where lots of capital is raised and burnt through quickly in the quest for rapid growth at all costs. As I was listening, a word came to my mind – “profi-corn”. I said it aloud, and everyone loved it. I spoke about this in a US visit earlier this year, and got a positive response – the word has a certain ring to it,” he writes. This word has gained traction today at the back of a slowdown in funding and companies, including many unicorns, resorting to steps like layoffs in order to sustain their businesses. Many stakeholders from the ecosystem are coming out in the open to talk about profitability while quoting examples of successful bootstrapped companies such as Zerodha and Zoho.”

WSJ: “Good relationships keep us healthier and happier. Period. If you want to make one decision to ensure your own health and happiness, it should be to cultivate warm relationships of all kinds.”

David Brooks: “A society can get a lot wrong as long as it gets the big thing right. And that big thing is this: If a society is good at unlocking creativity, at nurturing the abilities of its people, then its ills can be surmounted.he economist Tyler Cowen suggests a thought experiment to illustrate this point. Take out a piece of paper. In one column, list all of the major problems this country faces—inequality, political polarization, social distrust, climate change, and so on. In another column, write seven words: “America has more talent than ever before.” Cowen’s point is that column B is more important than column A. Societies don’t decline when they are in the midst of disruption and mess; they decline when they lose energy. And creative energy is one thing America has in abundance.”

WSJ: “The [US] government and companies are spending billions on a frenetic effort to build up domestic manufacturing and safeguard the supply of chips. Since 2020, semiconductor companies have proposed more than 40 projects across the country worth nearly $200 billion that would create 40,000 jobs, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. It’s a big bet on an industry that is defining the contours of international economic competition and determining countries’ political, technological and military advantage. “Where the oil reserves are located has defined geopolitics for the last five decades,” Intel Corp. Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger declared at a Wall Street Journal conference in October. “Where the chip factories are for the next five decades is more important.”…While one barrel of oil is much like another, semiconductors come in a bewildering range of types, capabilities and costs and depend on a multilayered supply chain spanning thousands of inputs and numerous countries. Given the economies of scale, the U.S. can’t produce all of these itself.”

Matt Gorniak: “The best way to view the world of B2B Commerce is in 3 stages. First, it was a world of spreadsheets and lots of manual processes. Second, where most B2B companies are today – a world built around making it easier for the seller to sell. Tools like CRM, CPQ, ERP etc. make sales processes faster and more efficient for the seller.  Third is the new age of B2B where new kings will be crowned. Today it’s not about just making it easier for sellers to sell. What’s changed is that now it’s about making it easy for buyers to buy. B2B winners will make it easy for customers to buy on their terms. They will show more or their product and deliver amazing, seamless, and efficient product experiences that keep their customers coming back.”

Ramachandra Guha: “The degradation of the Indian party system is more or less complete, with one set of political parties becoming family firms, and another set becoming quasi-religious cults exalting their leader as a living god. The broader consequences of this depressing trend remain to be examined. The political party is arguably the most important institution of modern society, on whose healthy functioning democracy itself vitally depends. If parties themselves operate in a culture of deference and obedience, if they mandate family-worship or hero-worship, what does this signify for the wider political culture? If a leader wants only praise from his party colleagues, would he ever be inclined to promote a free press? If a leader demands unquestioning loyalty from party members, why would he, when in power, not then demand unquestioning support for his mala fide acts of policy from the bureaucracy, the police, the media, or the judiciary?”

My Life System #49: Friends – 1

Recently, a couple that Bhavana and I used to meet every few months prior to the pandemic invited us (along with the rest of the group) for dinner – to celebrate their 25th wedding anniversary. I was meeting most of the group after almost three years. What surprised me was the ease with which the conversations flowed – even though we had not met for a long time. For those few hours together, we were all just ourselves – laughing, joking, sharing, gossiping like we used to. As Bhavana and I returned home late, she remarked, “This is what friendship is about – the ability to easily pick up from where you left off even after so much time.”

It is important for us to have friends. We have some good friendships when we are in school and college, and then tend to drift apart. We can build new relationships, but it gets harder as we get older and busier. And yet, friendship matters – we need a few people in our lives we can share without restraint. Time and distance may push us apart but if we take the effort to keep the relationship going, we will find great benefits from these friendships. As Vincent Van Gogh said, “Close friends are truly life’s treasures. Sometimes they know us better than we know ourselves.”

In school, there were three of us who were inseparable. And even as we have all aged, we have kept the friendship going. All of us are in different parts of the world, and it has probably been more than 15 years since we all met together in person. Now, we do Zoom calls on each other’s birthdays and talk about not just the present but also the shared past. It is the same with some friends from my days at IIT. A year ago, I connected through LinkedIn with a Greek friend from the Masters program at Columbia University after more than 30 years. We had shared some wonderful times together doing late-night projects even though we were from very different cultures. We discussed our professors and memories from the days at the Engineering school. One could argue whether this was really a friendship given the gap in communications; the way I think of friendship is that there are some tight relationships and some loose connections, but the bond of shared experiences is one that never fades away.

Robin Dunbar writes in his book, “Friends”: “Friendship and loneliness are two sides of the same social coin, and we lurch through life from one to the other. What has surprised medical researchers over the last decade or so is just how dramatic the effects of having friendships actually are – not just for our happiness, but also for our health, wellbeing, and even how long we live. We do not cope well with isolation. Friendship, however, is a two-way process that requires both parties to be reasonably accommodating and tolerant of each other, to be willing to spare time for each other. Nowhere has this been so obvious as in the modern world. Just when we might think social life couldn’t get better, suddenly we find ourselves in the midst of a plague of loneliness…Friends do a lot for us and we invest in them to ensure that they do.”

Here is a pictorial representation of the “circle of friendship” from the book:

Thinks 779

The Economist writes that India’s “rocketing Internet growth has stalled”. It writes: “Of the country’s roughly 1bn mobile-phone users, a third still use old-fashioned dumbphones, mainly for voice calls. And recent data suggest that they are not about to upgrade them. All but a tiny proportion of Indian internet users get online using their phones. Yet the number of wireless broadband connections is flat. In October last year, the latest month for which figures are available, the telecoms regulator counted 790m wireless broadband connections, barely exceeding the previous peak of 789m, which was recorded in August 2021. (The number of subscribers is lower than this, because many people have more than one connection.) Smartphone sales are down. After growing for a decade, sales peaked at 161m units in 2021, according to idc, a market researcher, which reckons that last year the number fell to 148m. Meanwhile the average smartphone price has surged, from $163 before the pandemic to $220 in 2022.”

Evan Armstrong: “Self-improvement is great and productivity is wonderful, but something about this vein of thought feels off. When I try to follow this advice, I may temporarily get more stuff done, but it comes at the expense of my soul. I feel like an obsessive-compulsive lumberjack, hyper-focused on marginal improvements in my sawing technique—until one day, as I finish my labors, I realize I accidentally clear-cut the forest for the trees. The little things we do to make ourselves better may end up draining us dry. Instead, I would argue for the unoptimized life…We get so caught up in the daily grind, in the pursuit of the next step of the ladder, that we miss the point of being. I think the default state of life is that we will get filled up with small things. Whether small productivity improvements or minor inconveniences, it doesn’t matter. Either take away our chance to focus on something more.”

Ian Leslie on being a human in the Age of AI:  “It’s going to get less and less valuable and more and more perilous to be generic in any way–to be a generic writer, or to be a generic person, a generic thinker. Because, the machines are very good at analyzing–effectively, the kind of average, the generic model of this form of thought, this form of expression, whatever. There will be a much higher premium on cultivating your own distinctive, inimitable voice in whatever form that takes. Whether that could be literally your voice if you’re a singer. If you’re a writer, of course, it’s very important. I see huge amounts of generic writing out there by competent writers. But, good luck being a generic writer in 5, 10, 20 years. It’s going to get much harder. You need to kind of dig deeper and really work out what it is about you: whether it’s what you know about that nobody else knows about or what you care about or how you express yourself, whatever it is. Your voice is now really the most valuable thing about you.”

Atanu Dey: “Most of us have the basic sense to realize that there are limits to growth. If there are four people sharing a pizza pie, then each gets a fourth of the pie; if you have forty people sharing that same pie, then each gets 1/40th of the pie. If the earth can only support two billion people in reasonable comfort given the resources at hand, increasing the population to eight billion will be the road to ruin. Therefore, Ehrlich makes sense to most people — except to madmen, and to trained economists. Trained economists realize that there are no limits to resources because resources are not limited in any meaningful way. The problems humans face — including scarcity of resources — are solved by humans. Indeed, the resources expand as a consequence of real resource constraints felt in the short term. It’s those short-term problems that lead to long-term growth. This is counter-intuitive. This doesn’t come naturally to us. One has to be trained in economics to get that point. Ehrlich, unfortunately, has proven himself to be incapable of learning economics. The tragedy is that he will continue to mislead too many people into buying his silly doom and gloom.”

FT: “Google Search was once one of the wonders of the online world. Its clean, organised pages of results filtered the otherwise unmanageable slog of information on the internet. That was until it became cluttered with adverts. Now the world’s biggest search engine is less encyclopedia, more Yellow Pages. Look up a search term that can also be a product — asthma inhalers, for example — and you will need to scroll past up to four large adverts before reaching non-sponsored results. Search for clothing and the entire first page will be companies hoping to make a sale. Even non-ad results can look like wrong answers, with links full of buzzwords so Google gives them a higher ranking.”

FT: “how can leaders find the right balance between exerting enough authority to help people feel well led, while allowing enough autonomy to obtain the best from people? Understanding the basic dynamics between those in authority and their employees is a start…One important aspect of leadership is managing people’s anxieties — too much control and people feel infantilised, but if you do not project enough authority, they become anxious.”

Ben Thompson: “The biggest impact of all though [of AI], though, is probably off our radar completely. Just before the break Nat Friedman told me in a Stratechery Interview about Riffusion, which uses Stable Diffusion to generate music from text via visual sonograms, which makes me wonder what else is possible when images are truly a commodity. Right now text is the universal interface, because text has been the foundation of information transfer since the invention of writing; humans, though, are visual creatures, and the availability of AI for both the creation and interpretation of images could fundamentally transform what it means to convey information in ways that are impossible to predict. For now, our predictions must be much more time-constrained, and modest. This may be the beginning of the AI epoch, but even in tech, epochs take a decade or longer to transform everything around them.”

My Life System #48: Self-Upgrade

We upgrade our devices all the time, but do we think of upgrading ourselves? How do we become better, more productive, more learned with the passage of time? While there is no shortage of advice in books, videos and podcasts, the bottleneck is always us – there is a reluctance to change existing habits. As is said, we can lead a horse to water, but cannot make it drink. A question I ask myself constantly is: what can I do to improve? Are there learnings from others which can help me improve?

Many years ago, I had read in a book “Getting Things Done” by David Allen that it is important to keep one’s mind free from the clutter of things to do and thus a system is needed to write it down. That helped create my note-taking system. In conversations after the 2014 elections, I realised that to understand why India is poor and what needs to be done, I need to learn about classical liberal and public choice ideas, and set about doing that – by reading about Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek, James Buchanan and Milton Friedman. In 2020, when I returned to Netcore after shuttering the Nayi Disha project, I set about understanding digital marketing via conversations with CMOs. I had always thought about writing a book, but never got around to it – until I was approached by a commissioning editor, which then encouraged me to write the Proficorn series, as a precursor to getting the book done. Most recently, I started listening to music with noise-cancellation headsets to create an envelope of quiet to help me think better.

We are creatures of habits and changing anything takes effort. It is easy to stick to the status quo simply because we are so used to it and doing anything different disrupts set processes in our life. And yet, we must edit ourselves. Like great authors do through multiple drafts to create the final perfect book, we must also make some edits to our lives in search of the better.

There is much that I have to do. I have thought about creating a more active digital presence on Twitter and LinkedIn, but worry about the fragmentation of my time. I have thought about taking time off to travel and see new places, but I keep thinking I will do it next year. I know I have to make a better system to organise all my readings and writings, but don’t know where to begin. I sometimes go into panic mode when things are different from what I expect them to be, and that is when I make mistakes. I have been told by a friend that in conversations, I have a tendency to interrupt the other person because I cannot wait to get my point across which is impolite and which is a behaviour I need to modify.

The process of creating better versions of us is never done. What is important is to start with a recognition of the flaws which need to be corrected and drawing inputs from others about best practices that we can incorporate. New, improved versions of us are a good contribution to make to the world.

Thinks 778

WSJ: “Studies show that for optimal health, it’s best to consume most of your calories earlier in the day rather than later — for example by eating a large breakfast, a modest lunch, and a small dinner. This pattern of eating aligns with our circadian rhythms, the innate 24-hour clock that governs many aspects of our health, from our daily hormonal fluctuations and body temperatures to our sleep-wake cycles…Studies show that a meal consumed at 9 a.m. can have vastly different metabolic effects than the same meal consumed at 9 p.m. This emerging field of research, known as chrono-nutrition, represents a paradigm shift in how nutrition researchers think about food and health. Instead of focusing solely on nutrients and calories, scientists are increasingly looking at meal timing and discovering that it can have striking effects on your weight, appetite, chronic disease risk and your body’s ability to burn and store fat.”

WaPo: “In a new working paper…, Aviv Ovadya and co-author Luke Thorburn of King’s College London make the case for what they call “bridging systems” — algorithms designed to elevate posts that resonate with diverse audiences. They see the approach as an antidote to today’s toxic Twitter and Facebook feeds, which tend to highlight the most attention-grabbing content, even if it’s polarizing. Social media that reward pure engagement — likes, shares, angry comments — have an inherent “bias toward division,” Ovadya argues. The headlines, pictures and videos that thrive tend to be those that immediately appeal to a specific audience, whether that’s vaccine skeptics on Instagram, conspiracy theorists on YouTube or teens with eating disorders on TikTok. And if that content also repels or alienates another group, that negative engagement can amplify it further.”

WSJ: “For years, researchers thought it was impossible to change your personality. It was fully formed by early adulthood and that’s it. But now, a body of research by personality psychologists shows that we can change, that many of us want to, and that we’re often happier when we do. A key is to start small. Use your strengths to change your weaknesses and fake it until you make it. “Changing your personality is similar to losing weight,” says Nathan Hudson, an assistant professor of psychology at Southern Methodist University, who studies personality change. “Just setting the goal won’t help; you’ve got to take actionable steps and stick with it.””

Noah Smith: “I’ve been writing a series of development economics posts, trying to highlight successes (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Dominican Republic, Poland, Turkey), failures (Pakistan, Haiti, Ukraine), and countries that are somewhere in between (Philippines, Jamaica). In general, I’ve been trying to think about these stories using the framework offered by the economist Ha-Joon Chang and the author Joe Studwell. Essentially, the idea is that A) it’s much better in the long run to be a manufacturing country than a natural resource country, and B) exports are really important for importing foreign technology and business practices. This theory — which is now getting a little bit of renewed attention from economists — is a refinement of the industrial policy ideas of Alexander Hamilton, Friedrich List, and various economists at the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry.”

Economist: “Industrial policy is just about as old as industry itself. Scarcely had Britain’s Industrial Revolution got going when Alexander Hamilton, America’s first Treasury secretary, argued for protection of his country’s industry, declaring that Adam Smith’s arguments in favour of free trade “though ‘geometrically true’ are ‘practically false’”. America, France and Germany industrialised behind tariff barriers. After the second world war scores of governments tried to help industrialisation along, with seeming success in places like Japan and South Korea, and rather different results elsewhere. Policy today is of a different sort: pursued by countries already at the technological frontier, in a world of complex global supply chains. Yet past research still holds valuable lessons…Interventions often raise costs and thus hurt consumers. Messrs Baldwin and Krugman judged the Japanese were made worse off, on net, by the effort to build a chip-exporting industry. Because the output of one industry is often the input for another, help for upstream producers can inflict pain down the supply chain. Reviewing efforts to boost steel industries across 21 countries, Bruce Blonigen of the University of Oregon found such interventions sharply cut the export competitiveness of downstream industries.” More: “Just as America wants to be at the cutting edge of semiconductor production, so do governments in Asia and Europe. All have national champions, and scores of startups vying for a slice of the action. As America and its allies offer more aid, these firms will lap it up. In the process, there will be a duplication of efforts across borders, a waste of public funds and recrimination between countries meant to be co-operating. It may take hundreds of billions of dollars to relearn why America was once an opponent, not an advocate, of subsidies.”

Tim Martinez: “Is every customer/client the same? Is it possible that some customers are better to acquire than others? Maybe because they turn into recurring patrons or that they have a higher appreciation for the product/service you offer. It could be that some customers are simply a better fit for your offering thus making them more loyal and better advocates. Or to put it even more bluntly, maybe their $ is simply more profitable. Conversely some customers are simply the opposite. They drain, take all they can and end up being an expense on time, energy and capital. Revenue is king – yes, but some kings turn into tyrants and dictators. Your job is to know the difference.”