My Life System #80: Think Bigger

I was discussing with a colleague recently about how we can accelerate growth in a specific geography. My suggestion was: instead of working on a plan to double in the coming year, what would it take to grow 10X in the same period? My point was that we would think and act very differently if we took a crazy outsized goal rather than build incrementally from a low base. I then gave the example of my “Project 275 for 2014” which I had proposed for the BJP in 2011. The best the BJP had done in Lok Sabha elections until 2011 was winning 182 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. In conversations that I was part of, the focus was on how to get to 200+ seats. I looked at it differently. I asked what it would take to focus on getting a majority (winning 272+ seats) rather than forming a minority government. Targeting 200+ meant going with the same approach of a summation of state elections, while aiming for 275 meant creating a national wave in favour of the BJP which transcended state politics. As it turned out, the BJP did the latter and won 282 seats in the 2014 elections.

The very next day after I suggested the 10X bigger approach to my colleague, I came across Sheena Iyengar’s book “Think Bigger.” The focus is on innovation. Sheena, a professor at Columbia Business School, writes: “I noticed that our many courses on entrepreneurship taught students how to implement a new idea—but not how to get that idea in the first place. Not all new ideas are equal, just like not all choices are equal. I found that the field of innovation offered methods to get new ideas, but these dated from more than half a century ago. They failed to take into account the recent breakthrough in neuroscience called Learning+Memory. It lets us actually see how imagination works in the human mind…In this book, I will show you how to deliberately form creative ideas—and most importantly, how anyone can be creative once they understand the roadmap to creative problem-solving.” The book offers a 6-step framework as the table of contents shows:

The question we should ask when we look at solving problems is how to “think bigger”. By changing the frame of reference from 200 to 275 seats (minority government to majority), by reframing the growth question from 2X to 10X, we can push ourselves to come up with bolder ideas and possibly very different paths to success. Too often, we let the safety of the incremental lead us away from the boldness of the disruptive. In some way, this is what entrepreneurship is about. By thinking big, we may risk failure, but the outcome is likely to be much better than the obvious ordinary.

So, the next time you are asked to solve a problem, ask yourself – what would it take to be much bigger and better? Even if that doesn’t make it to the final plan, you will have opened many new avenues which you would have perhaps not considered previously.

Thinks 882

WSJ: “Emily Oster, a Brown University professor and bestselling author, joined Becky Kennedy, a clinical psychologist and chief executive of Good Inside, in a panel discussion on how parents can raise resilient and independent children. They stressed intentional action and continuous engagement with the child from an early age.  “Parenting is a constant negotiation between connection and a kid feeling safe enough from your connection to be able to go explore,” Dr. Kennedy said. “Independence is born from the safety of dependence.”…The most important skill kids need is emotional regulation. “Kids are born with all the feelings in the world and none of the skills,” Dr. Kennedy said. “That’s a really big gap.””

Erik Torenberg: “The biggest contradiction in liberalism is between its main two values: liberty and equality. Liberalism’s goal is to achieve a utopia where all people have complete equality combined with wholly unfettered liberty. Of course, we often can’t have both full liberty and equality. If liberty is unlimited, we will have inequality. Because of course you will: People are different. They have different upbringings, different genes, different dispositions, and thus, different outcomes.” [via Arnold Kling] Arnold: “To effectively reduce inequality in income and education, we cannot simply add to liberty of people at the bottom. We would have to take away liberty from people at the top. That is the conundrum that we face today.”

““When someone is searching,” said Siddhartha, “then it might easily happen that the only thing his eyes still see is that what he searches for, that he is unable to find anything, to let anything enter his mind, because he always thinks of nothing but the object of his search, because he has a goal, because he is obsessed by the goal. Searching means: having a goal. But finding means: being free, being open, having no goal. You, oh venerable one, are perhaps indeed a searcher, because, striving for your goal, there are many things you don’t see, which are directly in front of your eyes.”” [via Atanu Dey, quoting from Siddhartha by Hesse]

Matt Johnson: “The BlackBerry was a technical device that solved an immediate problem, which is: how can we basically get data into the hands of consumers, and how can we have email mobile? And that’s a very small box, right? What Mike and Doug [Fregin] were trying to do, they’re trying to solve something extremely local, but the product itself…really had no vision. The product did not present a vision of culture and the future and how human beings would relate to one another in the way that the iPhone did. The iPhone is a product with incredible vision, and it’s saying that you are going to change the way that you live in order to make this product integrate with you. Whereas the BlackBerry was, “We’re going to give you this tool that is going to help you with the tiny problems that you have, and it’s going to be very, very useful.””

My Life System #79: Thinking Bubble

Airports and flights can be noisy. I use five things to create my own bubble: QC45 Bose Headset, iPad, mobile, Amazon Music, and my notebook. The headset with its amazing noise cancellation shuts me from most sounds enabling me to think and not be distracted with all the random sounds and conversations of those around me. The iPad has a lot of books and other reading material. The mobile with the Amazon Music app has a few hundred songs downloaded and available in offline mode; I tend to play them at low volume so while they fill the ears they do not disturb the chain of thinking. And finally, my notebook – in which I write everything that I think.

At a minimum, I need my notebook because I like to write everything as the ideas flow, rather than trying to remember. Long flights give me time to read books and think. In general, I try to avoid doing emails on long flights. For every email I send, I will get one back – and then they all become micro-distractions which I can do without and there is a different time and place to deal with them.

I can create a bubble for myself anywhere. I had to take my parents to the hospital recently for a check-up. My BB with my iPad and notebook helped me during the hour-long waiting time. I did not bother with my mobile for most of the time; it is very easy to see a message, start a conversation, and go down a rabbit hole of useless banter!

The bubble creation works well at conferences also. While most sessions tend to be generally useful, there are times when one ends up having to sit through what is a boring presentation or conversation. It is hard to walk out unless one is seated at the edge of a row. In such situations, I create my own bubble – no headset or music, but just my thoughts and notebook. I see a lot of people around me doing stuff with their phones or sometimes laptops, but they are just not good for a continuous stream of thinking. And that is when ideas come – as one thought leads to another, and so on. I like the notebook because I can write faster than I can type and because I can do much more freehand stuff. An iPad could serve the purpose but it’s simply not the same thing.

Whatever it is that suits you – create a toolkit to ensure you can create your own thinking bubble. While ChatGPT may have all the answers, we still need to read and push our own minds further and beyond.

Also see: The Zone.

Thinks 881

Arnold Kling: “Large, established businesses are sluggish for a reason. The middle managers who are coming to senior management with project ideas do not have much skin in the game. If the project fails, the cost will almost all be borne by top managers and shareholders. Senior managers have to be selective in choosing which projects to undertake. At some point, every project that requires effort from multiple departments is going to require active senior management support. At least one of the necessary departments will refuse to give the project priority unless senior management steps in. So a project can succeed only if it has senior management’s attention. But senior management support for a project is a scarce resource. You only have so much time and cognitive focus. In order to limit their commitments, senior managers will try to surface potential problems with a project as soon as possible. An initiative will be subjected to a careful process of evaluation, with all affected departments involved in studying and criticizing the project. This process has been characterized as “the culture of ‘no’.””

Niranjan Rajadhyaksha: “India has been unable to productively employ its young population, especially females. The result is that Indian economic growth in recent years has been largely powered by the more intensive use of capital as well as productivity growth. Many recent statistical studies have highlighted the same structure. One way to boost potential growth is to create the conditions for higher employment, something that India has been struggling with in recent decades, even though the claims of “jobless growth” may be exaggerated. Having the world’s largest population is an advantage only if there are enough jobs to convert a demographic fact into an economic opportunity.”

Shruti Gandhi: “A company’s vision statement should be focused on its long-term goals, purpose, and values, rather than just taking down a competitor. A good vision statement should communicate the company’s long-term aspirations, the problem it aims to solve, and the impact it wants to make….A vision statement for a startup is important for several reasons: 1. Provides direction and focus: A clear and compelling vision statement helps the startup define its long-term goals and direction, and provides focus to the team, helping them stay aligned and motivated. 2. Guides decision-making: A well-defined vision statement guides the startup’s decision-making process, helping the team make choices that are consistent with the company’s long-term goals and values. 3. Attracts customers and investors: A strong vision statement communicates the startup’s purpose and value proposition to potential customers and investors, helping the company attract the right partners and resources to achieve its goals.”

Evan Armstrong on the challenges media businesses face: “Consumers don’t want to pay you, Facebook is better at advertising, and unique distribution is necessary for long-term survival but almost impossible to get. If you somehow get an audience, congrats! Your reward is a million competitors who are constantly trying to kill you and steal your audience. Still, if you are able to climb up the power law, you may be able to build long-term success…For every single evolution of technology since the internet, content creation companies have been moved to the role of commodity supplier. As technology changes the types of popular supply, a media company is forced to alter its product or be left in the dust. To be a media company is to never be in control of your distribution and to be subject to the winds of progress on a daily basis.” Ben Thompson on the Unified Content Business Model: “Everything, in the end, is on its way to freemium. The right place to draw the line will and should differ based on whether a product is niche or scaled, and on the cost structure of the content producer; what seems less necessary, given the need to both leverage content costs and acquire customers effectively, is being religious about only making money in one specific way.”

My Life System #78: Delta Dollar Decision Rule – Applied

I have written previously about what I have termed as Delta Dollar Decision Rule: “Set a threshold below which one will not waste thinking time – the answer should be a Yes. For me, that threshold is $100 (Rs 7,500). This simplifies decisions like buying a book, booking a better seat on a flight, going to a better restaurant for a business meeting – the answer is always Yes. The same applies in business also – the decision threshold can be higher. Always look at the benefits and the delta, rather than the absolute.”

On my recent US trip, I had many places where I put this in practice. I tend to choose a bigger airline rather than the cheapest flight, and one which is direct rather than with connections. They tend to be a bit more expensive, but the odds of delay or cancellation are much lower. And even if something happens, there are more flight alternatives available.

I also choose a hotel which is more conveniently located even though it is priced higher. My preference in New York is the Residence Inn Marriott at Times Square. It is a 5-minute walk from our WeWork office; it has a very good breakfast spread; and it has a kitchenette in the room which is very helpful for me given my dietary restrictions. There are many cheaper options available, but the location and facilities more than make up for the higher cost.

Here is another example. My return flight from LA to San Jose on Delta was scheduled at 8 pm. I had a meeting near the airport at 4:30 pm. I figured that if the meeting got over around 5:45 pm, then I could be pushed hard to make the flight – getting an Uber, doing the 15-20 minute ride to the airport through peak hour traffic, passing through security, and walking to the gate (LAX is a big, crowded airport). I then decided to upgrade to Business class for an additional $65, which would ensure that the security queue would be a shorter one in case I reached late. As it turned out, I didn’t need it – the person I met dropped me to the airport, there were no long security check queues, and I was at the gate by 6:30 pm. What the upgrade bought me was peace of mind, which ensured I could focus on the meeting without being mentally distracted and trying to rush a closure to the conversation with the clock ticking away.

For business meetings, I also tend to choose restaurants which have more spaced-out seating. They tend to be a bit more expensive but the conversation tends to be much better. I pay for extra legroom and an aisle seat when travelling, especially if it is a longer flight. This enables me to be more comfortable, which helps with thinking. The extra $10 for inflight Wi-Fi is also worth it if I use my laptop. I know all these things add up, but each individual decision is a small delta over the base price.

So, think “delta” not absolute when making decisions about money and time. It will make life better, and a month later, you will not even remember whether you spent $48 or $87! The better experience will more than make up for the incremental spend.

Thinks 880

Atanu Dey: “I desire water when I’m thirsty. But after a few glasses of water, I am done. I have no more desire for water. I may have other needs but water is not one of them. If every need I feel now is met without any struggles, then at least for now I am not bothered by them. I may have other needs that arise later that I cannot conceive of now but that’s something I have to deal with later. But for now, all I want is that I have sufficient amounts of stuff that meet my current needs so that I can be as free of needless unsatisfactoriness (dukkha) as possible. That is where humanity is headed. It’s going toward a world where everyone’s well-being is assured because they all have their consumption needs met regardless of how much wealth and income they have… In about 15 years or so, there will be equality in well-being. There will be inequality of wealth and income, and to some degree inequality in consumption, but there will be equality of well-being.”

Sebastian Park: “Decision-making is even more difficult than people realize. In the academic sphere, we talk about how we’re breaking out the decision: we assume no variance in the system, and then we say, ‘What’s one plus one?’ We say it’s two, and we’re all happy with that. That’s not how the world works! In the real world, everything operates with imperfect information. We don’t know what we don’t know. Additionally, things constantly change…All of this makes decision-making difficult. That’s even before we consider the effects of bias, the impact of noise, the fact that we don’t control our destiny, or the possibility that all our basic assumptions are wrong. The combination of these factors impedes our ability to make the perfect decision. Therefore, our goal is not to make the perfect decision. It’s to make the best decision possible at any given moment, based on what we know at that time, how we know it, and why we know it. It’s not a question of whether we regret a decision in retrospect; it’s a question of whether, knowing what we knew then, it was a good decision or a bad one.”

Mint on dealing with jet lag: “According to the Sleep Foundation, tart cherries or tart cherry juice contain melatonin and tryptophan if you’re not interested in taking a melatonin supplement. Tryptophan can encourage melatonin production. When flying west to east, Dr. Stacy Sims recommends ingesting 4 ounces of tart cherry juice approximately 30 minutes before bed, then waking up one hour earlier than usual. Four days before your trip, drink 4 ounces of tart cherry juice (for natural melatonin) with 400 milligrams of valerian about 30 minutes before bed. Go to bed and wake up 1 hour earlier than usual. When you wake up, start the “wakeful” process by opening your curtains to bright sunlight or going outside.”

Nandan Nilekani: “India is upgrading. It is going from being an offline, cash-based, informal and low-productivity economy to an online, cashless, formal and high-productivity one… Building on the country’s successes with IT services, the nation has been able to harness governmental scale, technocratic zeal and socio-economic aspirations to invent the India Stack—a bouquet of technological goods spanning unique identification, digital documentation and finance with the potential to alter the country’s destiny.

My Life System #77: When Things Go Wrong

I was going with my colleague for a meeting in New York. We had just exited the subway. I did not pay attention to the two-levelled pavement, lost my balance, and fell. The fall was worsened because of my heavy backpack. (As a friend put it, my centre of gravity changed.) I hit my knees against the concrete, and for a few seconds, I was in a daze. Luckily, my friend helped me up, and I examined the damage. I had a few bruises on my knees with blood coagulating fast. There was a CVS nearby and we bought some wipes and ointment to ensure things did not get worse. The good news was that I did not seem to have broken any bones. I could walk, albeit slower than my normal pace. (As my same friend put it, there were 206 bones that could have been hurt!)

Back at the hotel room after my meeting, I used an ice pack to ensure things did not get worse. I needed to ensure that I could still move around without too much discomfort. I had a flight from New York to San Francisco the next day, and 12 days still left in my trip before I returned home. I had to make sure that the ‘morning after’ situation was not bad and painful.

Thankfully, the knees settled down. There was no swelling, and I could move around. It was a near-miss. The fall had not been on the agenda! If I had hurt myself more severely, I do not know how I would have reacted. Things had gone wrong, but it wasn’t bad enough to upset my plans.

As I reflected, there were the obvious errors: not paying attention as I was walking and talking, and a loaded backpack which made it hard for me to regain balance. I also realised that I was extremely lucky that I had gotten away very lightly. By chance if I had fractured some body part, it would have been the end of the trip for me.

A second incident also brought into play how things can go wrong. At a dinner table, a wrong nudge meant some water split on the table. It just missed my iPad and notebook. Small thing, but just goes to show how at times things can happen, and in an instant, life can change.

The incidents I described were small, but the lessons are big. We all rely on things going according to plan. And yet, so many things – some beyond our control – could rearrange life in ways we don’t expect. There is much to be thankful for each day – for things that do go right. And when things go wrong, we need to accept them and do our best to come out of it. Many of the mistakes are in our control and can be avoided. I will be more careful when walking and ensure I am more aware of my surroundings. I will not keep fragile things on a crowded dinner table. And so on. And in the event that bad things do happen, do the best and move on. There is a time for regret and reflection which can be later.

Thinks 879

Anticipating the Unintended asks if India can industrialise: “Despite all the hype around Make in India and the rising ease of doing business rankings, it is still quite difficult to start and run a business in India. The state is deeply entrenched in controlling capital in India, and it enjoys the arbitrary power that it has over them that it is impossible to change this with just better optics of ‘single window’, tax holidays or investment roadshows. In the last two decades, the state has retreated a bit in some areas, but paradoxically, with greater digitisation, it has more information and, therefore, greater power over industry. My general contention is that the state can continue with its welfarism (or whatever else you may call it) on the social and political front, but for India to industrialise, the state has to retreat on the economic control it wields. This looks very difficult today because the state’s first goal is to perpetuate itself. It will require the PM to go back to some of his campaign promises of pre-2014 with real conviction…My view is we will industrialise a bit faster than in the past, but we are going to fall short of the expectations of the kind of industrialisation that’s expected for us to increase our per capita income from $2000 to $10,000 in the next 15 years.”

Andre Plaut writes that Twitter’s killer app is real-time search: “Twitter has a tremendous amount of live, real-time data about what’s happening where. This makes Twitter unique as a service—it encourages its users to create in-and-of-the-moment content. They share what they’re seeing, thinking, feeling, and experiencing now…Something happens, and seconds later, people turn to Twitter.”

Raghu Raman: “Leaders across organizations follow growth journeys through four stages: Tactical, Operational, Strategic and Doctrinal. Leaders (or heroes, since every individual is the protagonist of one’s own life) begin their journey at the tactical stage. This is usually the first 5-10 years of their career where the key success components are basic knowledge of their professional domains, a high degree of positive energy and a can-do attitude. At tactical levels, the idea is to forge ahead under guidance and figure out a path along the way. Once leaders transition to the operational stage, their role requires an ability to create collaborative alliances. They must recognize that ostensibly adversarial attitudes within the same organisation are required for robust growth…At strategic levels, the primary role of leaders is capacity building for the future. A leader must have a view of ‘over the horizon’ events and discern sense from feeble signals heralding changes in the environment…At the doctrinal stage, the leader attains the altitude and influence to be able to shape the environment in terms of guiding policies, mediating intractable short versus long-term choices, navigating contradictory asks and also advocating orbit-shifting ideas.”

Paul Zak (HBR, 2014): “My research has also shown that stories are useful inside organizations. We know that people are substantially more motivated by their organization’s transcendent purpose (how it improves lives) than by its transactional purpose (how it sells goods and services).  Transcendent purpose is effectively communicated through stories – for example, by describing the pitiable situations of actual, named customers and how their problems were solved by your efforts. Make your people empathize with the pain the customer experiened and they will also feel the pleasure of its resolution – all the more if some heroics went in to reducing suffering or struggle, or producing joy. Many of us know from Joseph Campbell’s work that enduring stories tend to share a dramatic arc in which a character struggles and eventually finds heretofore unknown abilities and uses these to triumph over adversity; my work shows that the brain is highly attracted to this story style…When you want to motivate, persuade, or be remembered, start with a story of human struggle and eventual triumph. It will capture people’s hearts – by first attracting their brains.”

My Life System #76: When Anger Comes

Netcore was a sponsor at an event organised for marketers and founders of eCommerce companies. As a sponsor, we were entitled to speak for 2 minutes. I had written up the speech, had it approved by the organisers, and practised to make sure I finished it within the stipulated time. When my turn came, I went up, paper in hand, and spoke. There was a countdown timer visible from the stage. With 13 seconds and 10 words left to speak, the anchor interrupted me and ended my promotional speech. I was taken aback, but quietly walked away. When I returned to my seat, I was seething with anger. What had happened was not right, but there was no way I could show my displeasure at that time. I was upset because I had done nothing wrong and the audience (to whom we wanted to sell) would have got the impression that I had gone overtime, reflecting poorly on Netcore and me.

I don’t get angry easily, but for the few minutes after I went off-stage, I was. The event was continuing, and so I could not afford to visibly demonstrate my feelings. I opened my spiral notebook and wrote out my thoughts. This calmed me down. What was in my mind was now in my book. I decided to put the incident behind me and move on. I thought about it from the anchor’s perspective – maybe he thought I was going overboard on pushing Netcore, had no clue how long I would speak, and did not notice the timer. Yes, it should not have happened, but I could not undo it now that it had. If I kept the anger going within me, I would not make the best use of the next two hours at the event. I still had marketers to interact with and persuade.

After the event, I made my displeasure known to the organisers, and they offered a formal apology with their version. It didn’t matter much, but I wanted to let them know that I had done no wrong.

There was a second incident on the US trip which also made me angry. A meeting with a potential investor abruptly ended before the scheduled time when the investor just got up signalling it was over, even as I was speaking. I got the message. I had mistakenly assumed that just because a calendar slot had been blocked, I had that much time. After coming out, I again wrote out my feelings in my notebook.

Bad things do happen, and it is at times like these that it is important to keep one’s anger under control. I did exactly what I had written in an earlier post on anger management: “It is not that I keep my anger bottled up inside me. I use my notebook to write down my feelings and get closure. I find that writing out my thoughts helps clear the mind; it is almost like talking to someone else. The writing forces me to reflect and that helps dissipate the momentary anger.”

Thinks 878

Vivek Murthy (US context): “Loneliness and isolation hurt whole communities. Social disconnection is associated with reduced productivity in the workplace, worse performance in school, and diminished civic engagement. When we are less invested in one another, we are more susceptible to polarization and less able to pull together to face the challenges that we cannot solve alone…As it has built for decades, the epidemic of loneliness and isolation has fueled other problems that are killing us and threaten to rip our country apart. Given these extraordinary costs, rebuilding social connection must be a top public health priority for our nation. It will require reorienting ourselves, our communities, and our institutions to prioritize human connection and healthy relationships. The good news is we know how to do this…Evidence shows that connection is linked to better heart health, brain health and immunity. It could be spending 15 minutes each day to reach out to people we care about, introducing ourselves to our neighbors, checking on co-workers who may be having a hard time, sitting down with people with different views to get to know and understand them, and seeking opportunities to serve others recognizing that helping people is one of the most powerful antidotes to loneliness.”

Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman: “According to [Indian] government data, roughly $45 billion in direct cash payments were delivered in the fiscal year that just ended, benefiting about 700 million (not necessarily distinct) people via 265 public schemes. If transfers from state governments were included, these figures would be even larger. Taken together, the cash transfers are tantamount to a universal basic income…Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unique approach to redistribution, which one of us dubbed “New Welfarism,” emphasises funding for items such as toilets that are essential but normally provisioned privately, as opposed to public goods such as primary education and basic health care.”

Laura Williams: “The pineapple trade is now highly industrialized. Chemicals that ripen fruit — the same ones that ripe bananas emit — are added to crops a week before harvest. Refrigerated shipping containers on ships, planes, and trucks allow whole pineapples to be delivered fresh, worldwide, with little loss to bruising or rot. Grocery stores do a healthy trade in whole, fresh pineapples; cored and prepared pineapple; and canned and dried varieties. If you want a taste of pineapple today, almost anywhere in the world, you can get it for under a dollar…Pineapples were once a supreme luxury item, which (through a combination of industrial process improvement, specialization, and relocation to regions with marginal advantages in pineapple growing) have become accessible to almost everyone. When past centuries’ most-iconic luxuries become commonplace and affordable, we always have specialization and market innovations to thank.”

Amjad Masad: “Learning how to code becomes more important in a world with AI. AI means that the return on investment from learning to code just went way up. AI models are great at generating code, but they go off the rails easily. They’re inherently statistical and stochastic, so they make a lot of mistakes. That will get better asymptotically, but for the foreseeable future, they’ll need human input. That means in this new world, you can suddenly build incredible things by leveraging these tools to generate code. And, if you can program, you can understand where they’re getting things wrong and fill in the gaps. You become less of a traditional programmer and more of a guide to bring your ideas to life. These are inherently augmenting technologies, not automating technologies.”