Rajesh Jain

WSJ: “Game theory is a branch of mathematics that expresses decision-based scenarios in a game-like format, which allows mathematical techniques to be used to study strategies and outcomes. The usual setup is that there are a number of players, each of whom has a fixed set of possible moves, and each combination of moves from different players produces a predetermined outcome. The outcome might just be win, lose or draw, as in a simple game like tic-tac-toe. It might be a numerical payoff, as in a gambling or investment-type situation. Or it might be a notional payoff, so that good and bad outcomes can be quantified rather than being black and white. Basic games involve just two participants, each of whom has the same two possible moves. The game of “chicken” is one such game, in which two people are approaching each other head on and will collide if nobody moves out of the way. Each player then has two choices: swerve or keep going straight ahead. It might seem rational to always swerve to avoid the collision, but game theory demonstrates that there is no clear-cut best (or “dominant”) strategy that maximizes results in both cases, because if your opponent swerves, you have swerved for no reason.”

Ruchir Sharma: “I argue that the creative-destruction fiber of the economy, which is the essence of capitalism, is not being freed by noncapitalist interventions. Instead, we must focus on raising productivity, because that’s the only way to grow the overall pie and spend on so many of these priorities. The way to begin growing productivity is to allow capitalism to work again. Currently, we aren’t allowing capital to work in its full form. We distort it with so many interventions. The government’s role is in every sphere—helping the incumbents and the entrenched. That goes against the productive capacity of smaller businesses, which generally tend to have higher productivity.”

Devangshu Dutta: “Starting with demonetisation and the goods and services tax (GST), policy changes have led to a shrinking of the informal economy. This has shown up in the micro, small and medium enterprises sector, which has shrunk in size, and struggled to generate enough activity to provide employment. That is why unemployment trumped religion in resonance in the elections. Demonetisation and GST have also led to formalisation, and I suspect the formalisation masked the extent to which the informal economy compressed…The informal businesses that could transition to GST did so and joined the formal economy. This resulted in a bump-up in formal GDP data, while the shutdowns of informal businesses have shown up in unemployment, rural distress, and a K-shaped recovery.”

Wired: “In 2016, Google engineer Illia Polosukhin had lunch with a colleague, Jacob Uszkoreit. Polosukhin had been frustrated by a lack of progress in his project, using AI to provide useful answers to questions posed by users, and Uszkoreit suggested he try a technique he had been brainstorming that he called self-attention. Thus began an 8-person collaboration that ultimately resulted in a 2017 paper called “Attention Is All You Need,” which introduced the concept of transformers as a way to supercharge artificial intelligence. It changed the world. Eight years later, though, Polosukhin is not completely happy with the way things are shaking out. A big believer in open source, he’s concerned about the secretive nature of transformer-based large language models, even from companies founded on the basis of transparency. (Gee, who can that be?) We don’t know what they’re trained on or what the weights are, and outsiders certainly can’t tinker with them…As LLM technology improves, he worries it will get more dangerous, and that the need for profit will shape its evolution. “Companies say they need more money so they can train better models. Those models will actually be better at manipulating people, and you can tune them better for generating revenue,” he says.”

Brian Potter: “Fusion has many of the advantages of nuclear fission with many fewer drawbacks. Like fission, fusion only requires tiny amounts of fuel: Fusion fuel has an energy density (the amount of energy per unit mass) a million times higher than fossil fuels, and four times higher than nuclear fission. Like fission, fusion can produce carbon-free “baseload” electricity without the intermittency issues of wind or solar. But the waste produced by fusion is far less radioactive than fission, and the sort of “runaway” reactions that can result in a core meltdown in a fission-based reactor can’t happen in fusion. Because of its potential to provide effectively unlimited, clean energy, countries around the world have spent billions of dollars in the pursuit of fusion power. Designs for fusion reactors appeared as early as 1939, and were patented as early as 1946. The U.S. government began funding fusion power research in 1951, and has continued ever since…There’s a good chance a working fusion reactor is near. Dozens of private companies are using decades of government-funded fusion research in their attempts to build practical fusion reactors, and it’s likely that at least one of them will be successful. If one is, the challenge for fusion will be whether it can compete on cost with other sources of low-carbon electricity.”

David Brooks on late bloomers: “Today we live in a society structured to promote early bloomers. Our school system has sorted people by the time they are 18, using grades and SAT scores. Some of these people zoom to prestigious academic launching pads while others get left behind. Many of our most prominent models of success made it big while young—Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Taylor Swift, Michael Jordan. Magazines publish lists with headlines like “30 Under 30” to glamorize youthful superstars on the rise. Age discrimination is a fact of life. In California in 2010, for example, more people filed claims with the state Department of Fair Employment and Housing for age discrimination than for racial discrimination or sexual harassment. “Young people are just smarter,” Zuckerberg once said, in possibly the dumbest statement in American history. “There are no second acts in American lives,” F. Scott Fitzgerald once observed, in what might be the next dumbest. But for many people, the talents that bloom later in life are more consequential than the ones that bloom early. A 2019 study by researchers in Denmark found that, on average, Nobel Prize winners made their crucial discoveries at the age of 44. Even brilliant people apparently need at least a couple of decades to master their field.”

Mint: “Manufacturing MSMEs are at the centre of job-led growth in India. Firms up to 10 years old account for about 30% of all formal employment. Yet, most Indian manufacturers stay small and suffer from low productivity; firms that last 40 years only increase employment by 1.4 times from where they started. Similar firms in the US increase employment by seven times. One big factor holding MSMEs back is the burden of various local, state and central government regulations and approvals. According to a 2022 World Bank survey, senior managers in manufacturing firms…spend nearly 15% of their time dealing with government regulations. This diverts time from business imperatives, creating a regulatory glass ceiling that discourages investment and growth. When we try to understand root causes, we see a combination of suspicion towards private enterprise and a deeply risk-averse bureaucracy. This results in rules that are too many, too complex and too process-heavy.”

Fareed Zakaria: “If you look at the facts, the United States is more powerful on many measures than it has been for years. But that is not how many Americans feel. In my book talks, so many were troubled by the deep polarization and divisions within the country. Many wonder whether it is possible to come out of this, to arrive at some compromise, some settlement that moves the country forward. Even here, I remain hopeful. We are going through whirlwinds of change. In the United States these problems are constantly aired and highlighted. We wash our dirty laundry in full public view. The talk of our failings convulses our political system. We will have to work through these problems. But surely that is better than repressing them, coercing people to conform and presenting a North Korea-style facade of unity to the world. And these surveys suggest that people around the world can tell what is real and what is fake. When confronted with a choice, most prefer the West and its values, warts and all.”

FT: “Scientists have opened a new frontier in the fast-evolving field of gene editing with the discovery of a way to programme the recombination and rearrangement of DNA. The novel technique promises to expand on the possibilities of existing methods such as Crispr gene editing, which is driving research in areas from cancer prevention to cutting cows’ methane emissions. The so-called bridge RNA method devised by researchers at California’s non-profit Arc Institute could enable more precise modifications of genetic code and avoid the need to break sequences and later repair them. The RNA bridge system was a “new mechanism for biological programming” that could act as a “word processor for the living genome”, said Patrick Hsu, an Arc Institute core investigator and assistant professor of bioengineering at UC Berkeley. “Bridge recombination can universally modify genetic material through sequence-specific insertion, excision, inversion and more,” he said.”

Ishan Bakshi: “The issue of jobs, or the lack thereof, has been a constant in India’s development story, not just restricted to the ruling dispensation. But what has changed in recent years is the youth bulge; the rising labour force participation rate, especially of women, as financial distress pushes them into the labour market; the dwindling share of value added by the informal sector; and the growing capital intensity of production in sectors that not only account for more value addition in the economy, but also those that are more labour intensive in nature. Add to that the fall in migration — the decline in Railway passenger traffic both suburban (where distances are less than 150 km) and non-suburban (longer distances) compared to pre-pandemic levels indicates that possibility — and the channel that facilitates the transfer of resources from urban to rural areas also appears to have cracked. If such an employment situation persists, governments will find it difficult to restrict fiscal transfers to the less well-off.”

WSJ: “As anyone who has been on a small-talk-free Zoom call knows, the modern workplace has become a more isolated and confusing place. Along with the usual anxieties about status, purpose and productivity, add more flux, transience and anxieties about AI. Amid these shifts, a trustworthy connection, forged in the pixelated pastures of Zoom, Slack and Microsoft Teams, can feel like an antidote. Yes, it is now harder to find this person, but we believe these new “context agnostic” bonds are more powerful and necessary than previous in-person work friendships…With a work best friend, it is easier to fulfill these very human desires for purpose and pleasure, regardless of the job at hand.”

The Hindu: “Despite the comparatively lower share of GDP dedicated to R&D, India has emerged as a powerhouse in producing academic talent. Annually, India generates an impressive 40,813 PhDs and is in third place after the United States and China. This achievement reflects India’s commitment to fostering intellectual capital and contributing significantly to global research endeavours. Additionally, India’s research output remains substantial, ranking third globally, with over 3,00,000 publications in 2022, highlighting the nation’s robust research ecosystem and its commitment to advancing knowledge across diverse fields. India also demonstrates commendable performance in patent grants, securing the sixth position globally with 30,490 patents granted in 2022. While this figure is lower compared to the U.S. and China, it underscores India’s evolving innovation landscape and its potential for further growth in intellectual property creation.”

WSJ: “Artificial intelligence work assistants were designed to provide businesses a relatively easy avenue into the cutting edge technology. It isn’t quite turning out that way, with chief information officers saying it requires a heavy internal lift to get full value from the pricey tools…Working in tandem with the Microsoft or Google enterprise suites and large bodies of enterprise data—including emails, documents and spreadsheets—the promise is that the tools can deliver reliable answers to questions such as “what are our latest sales figures?” But that isn’t always the case—in part because the enterprise data they are accessing isn’t always up-to-date or accurate and in part because the tools themselves are still maturing…Google Cloud Chief Evangelist Richard Seroter said he believes the desire to use tools like Gemini for Google Workspace is pushing organizations to do the type of data management work they might have been sluggish about in the past. “If you don’t have your data house in order, AI is going to be less valuable than it would be if it was,” he said. “You can’t just buy six units of AI and then magically change your business.””

Rama Bijapurkar: “Based on the speed and scale of adoption of digital utilities and the data on access to amenities and enrolment in higher education as well as primary schools, the “aspiring India” does seem to be larger than the “hopeless India”, with “economic opportunity” being a proposition with more pull than “social justice”. But custodians of both narratives have their work cut out for them — one rides a tiger of unleashed aspirations that must be fulfilled, requiring new policies actions on steroids to feed the opportunity hungry millions and build a bridge from aspiration to possibility. The other needs to truly want to empower the disadvantaged to find their way to be a part of the new India rather than go back to the old days, and to build a bridge of inclusion through enablement.”

NYTimes: “The next big boom in tech is a long-awaited gift for wonky consultants. From Boston Consulting Group and McKinsey & Company to IBM and Accenture, sales are growing and hiring is on the rise because companies are in desperate need of technology Sherpas who can help them figure out what generative A.I. means and how it can help their businesses. While the tech industry is casting about for ways to make money off generative A.I., the consultants have begun cashing in.”

Akash Prakash: “[India] remains a very good long term story — one of the best globally but very expensive. Global investors are hesitant to be sucked in today, and need a correction or, at the minimum, a period of consolidation. The two best markets over the last 30 years have been India and the US. Their scale and persistence of outperformance are impressive. They are also the two most expensive today. Does one play reversion to the mean and invest outside these two markets, or bet on continued outperformance? This is the question exercising the minds of the smart money.”

WSJ: “Continuing on our current fiscal course will mean a gradual loss of America’s financial independence followed by an abrupt economic decline. The U.S. will have to ask the rest of the world to finance its debt, and it’s reckless to assume that other nations will do so indefinitely. The risk is that countries the U.S. relies on will draw back gradually—and then suddenly, when some unforeseen shock crystallizes their mounting doubts. As the late economist Herb Stein quipped, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” We have to recognize the consequences of these realities and start taking steps to secure America’s fiscal future.”

FT: “The word “demography” triggers a glaze-over mechanism in the minds of all too many of us. Yes, populations are ageing, there are ever smaller cohorts of women of childbearing age and less children today mean less workers and taxpayers tomorrow. But surely the world is overpopulated, and the issue of world population decline is a problem for the future? No, no, no says demographer Paul Morland. It was a problem for the future but now it has arrived, and we had better wake up and deal with it. Hats off then to Morland. Firstly, he has written a highly readable book, No One Left, laying out everything we need to know on this subject including the consequences of ageing and shrinking populations. Then he argues for a solution, and it is one that many really don’t want to hear. His subtitle is “Why the World Needs More Children” but I bet that if his publishers had let him, he would gladly have had “Read This First and Then Be Fruitful and Multiply”, instead.”

NYTimes: “The history of life on Earth is the his­tory of life’s remaking Earth. Nearly two and a half billion years ago, photosynthetic ocean microbes called cyanobacteria permanently altered the planet, suffus­ing the atmosphere with oxygen, imbuing the sky with its familiar blue hue and initiating the formation of the ozone layer, which pro­tected new waves of life from harmful exposure to ultraviolet radia­tion. Today plants and other photosynthetic organisms appear to help maintain a level of atmospheric oxygen high enough to support complex life but not so high that Earth would erupt in flames at the slightest spark. Marine plankton drive chemical cycles on which all other life depends and emit gases that increase cloud cover, modifying global climate. Kelp forests, coral reefs and shellfish store huge amounts of carbon, buffer ocean acidity, improve water quality and defend shorelines from se­vere weather. Animals as diverse as elephants, prairie dogs and termites continually reconstruct the planet’s crust, facilitating the flow of water, air and nutrients and improving the prospects of millions of species. And micro-organisms, like those I observed deep within Earth’s crust, are now thought to be important players in many geological pro­cesses.”

Sarah Guo’s advice to VCs: “Eighty-plus percent of winning a deal is decided before you show up to an investment. The reason I believe that is that the first piece of winning is access, right? Do you know about the founders? Has someone introduced you? In venture, proprietary deal flow rarely exists but time advantage does. A big piece is also the work you’ve already done. This is more relevant for experienced investors but is also true for operators or people just starting out. A lot is on your references, your credibility, and your reputation. Who is going to call the entrepreneur and make the case for you? All of that comes from work you do over a long period of time.”

NYTimes: “In a global marketplace reshaped by volatile forces — not least the animosity between the United States and China — India shows signs of emerging as a potentially significant place to manufacture products. Multinational brands that have for decades relied on Chinese factories are expanding to India as they seek to limit the vulnerabilities of concentrating production in any single country. The shift to India could make the global supply chain more resilient, reducing its susceptibility to shocks. It could also boost fortunes in India, which missed out on the manufacturing boom that lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty in East Asia — first in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, then in China and, more recently, in Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.”