Thinks 1445

Fabricio Bloisi: “The only valuable thing in a business is its people and its culture — the way it innovates, communicates and adapts. What makes a company special is not what it can invest in or its products, but how it moves and adapts. It is very important that one has a very good team that can envision the future together, and they can make it happen and they can be in power and keep innovating. The biggest barrier will be to not have a strong team. That is my biggest objective.”

John Jumper on the big scientific problems he is most excited about tackling: “Really two things. I think one is simply that protein structure prediction will take us into drug development, be it small molecule or via protein design. This is just really, really exciting — that we will get qualitatively better at these problems in the next few years. The other one is really how AlphaFold can be used to inform how we understand more and more of the cell. And we’re seeing things like figuring out how proteins come together. We’re seeing larger and larger systems studied with AlphaFold and really creative uses. We’ll keep doing this, and it’ll get us out to really understanding the cell in a way that changes our science. That is really exciting to me.”

NYTimes: “Over decades of research, [Adam] Przeworski developed a theory that has become part of the bedrock of political science: that democracy is best understood as a game, one in which the players pursue power and resolve conflicts through elections rather than brute force. Democracies thrive when politicians believe they are better off playing by the rules of that game — even when they lose elections — because that’s the way to maximize their self-interest over time. To create those conditions, Przeworski found, it is crucial for the stakes of power to remain relatively low, so that people don’t fear electoral defeat so much that they seek other methods — such as coups — of reversing it. That means winners of elections need to act with restraint: They can’t “grab too much” and make life miserable for the losers, or foreclose the possibility that future elections would allow the losers to win. “When these conditions are satisfied,” Przeworski told me, “then democracy works.””

McKinsey: “Marketing leaders must deliver across four pillars of marketing excellence. They need to execute a clear marketing strategy with insight-led growth, produce best-in-class efficiency and effectiveness via marketing performance, and champion the latest and highest-impact tech-enabled marketing use cases, all while building a fit-for-purpose operating model. These pillars aren’t new, but success now requires that leaders build new capabilities that were once considered beyond the remit of the traditional marketing organization.”

NYTimes: “Many people naturally gravitate toward ambitious goals that are the traditional markers of success, like landing a dream job or winning an award. These kinds of targets can be highly motivating, said Ayelet Fishbach, a professor of behavioral science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. But, she cautioned, whether you actually achieve them is usually at least partially out of your control. That’s not all bad. Outcome goals can get you off the blocks, she said. But if you miss your target, she said, falling short can be profoundly disappointing. Had I been singularly focused on running a certain time in Boston, for example, “Well, that may be your last marathon,” she said. Instead, she recommends focusing on the work you do to set yourself up for success.”

NeoMartech: Shaping the Big Martech Era (Part 5)

Four Characteristics

There are 4 characteristics of a NeoMartech company: a core belief in “anti-acquisition” (more than just retention), the creation of 2-way customer hotlines via NeoMail, a fanatic desire for N=1 personalisation to solve the “Not for Me” problem, and solutioning via a 4S delivery and business model.

Core Belief in Anti-Acquisition: NeoMartech companies embody a fundamental shift from traditional marketing’s obsession with customer acquisition to a more sustainable model focused on retention and customer value maximisation. This goes beyond simple retention marketing –  it represents a complete philosophical pivot that views every acquisition dollar as a potential drain on customer value. At its heart is the recognition that nearly $350 billion is wasted annually on ineffective acquisition and reacquisition campaigns (AdWaste). NeoMartech companies help brands transform random, one-time transactions into predictable recurring revenue streams by prioritising the maximisation of LTV while minimising CAC. This approach aims to create “profipolies” – profit monopolies achieved through superior customer understanding and engagement, leading to sustainable profitable growth that starves competitors of oxygen by capturing the majority of industry profits.

See:

Creation of Two-Way Customer Hotlines via NeoMail: NeoMartech companies revolutionise customer communication by transforming traditional one-way push channels into dynamic, two-way engagement platforms. At the core of this transformation is NeoMail, built on five key pillars: AMP, Email Envelope, Atomic Rewards, Containers, and ActionAds. This innovation creates app-like experiences within email, enabling frictionless engagement without requiring customers to leave their inbox. The approach solves the critical “attention recession” problem by establishing direct, personalised communication hotlines with customers. By upgrading email from a simple messaging channel to an interactive platform, NeoMartech companies help brands reduce their dependency on costly reacquisition campaigns. This creates a more efficient, engaging customer experience that maintains consistent connection and engagement, ultimately reducing the need for expensive retargeting through adtech platforms.

See:

N=1 Personalisation to Solve the “Not for Me” Problem: NeoMartech companies leverage advanced AI technologies to deliver true one-to-one personalisation at scale, addressing the pervasive “Not for Me” problem in marketing. They employ AI Twins and agentic AI to create hyper-personalised customer experiences, while implementing Large Customer Models to centralise and effectively utilise all customer data. This sophisticated approach enables the creation of “departments of one” serving “segments of one” – a level of personalisation previously unattainable. Through AI-powered Co-Marketers, these companies orchestrate personalised campaigns that anticipate customer needs and deliver relevant, timely content. This predictive capability ensures each customer interaction is meaningful and valuable, moving beyond traditional segmentation to true individualisation. The result is a marketing approach that feels personally crafted for each customer, dramatically improving engagement and loyalty.

See:

4S Delivery and Business Model: NeoMartech companies operate on a comprehensive 4S framework that transcends traditional SaaS models. This framework begins with Strategy, providing strategic guidance beyond mere software solutions, followed by Software (Stack), delivering integrated technology platforms for a unified customer view. The third S, Services, includes Kaizen Progency for continuous improvement and optimisation, while the fourth S, Sharing, implements profit-sharing models that align vendor success with customer outcomes. Together, these four elements combine to deliver the crucial fifth S: Solutions for sustainable success. This model represents a departure from conventional MAU/MRR pricing, instead focusing on value-based approaches that foster true partnerships between NeoMartech companies and their clients. The result is a more collaborative, outcome-focused relationship that drives measurable business results.

See:

Thinks 1444

George Will: “Most Americans probably would recoil from living in a hypothetical country where: Payments from government entitlement programs — transfer payments — are the fastest-growing major component of citizens’ personal income. Such transfers are the third-largest source of personal income: In 2022, the average citizen received almost as much from government transfers ($11,500) as from investments ($12,900), and more than one-quarter as much money as was obtained from work. This average citizen received six times more (adjusted for inflation) in government transfer payments than in 1970, during which span income from other sources increased less than half as much. Transfers’ share of total (inflation-adjusted) personal income has more than doubled since 1970, from 8.2 percent to 17.6 percent in 2022. Actually, this is not a hypothetical country. It is the United States.”

NYTimes: “For all of human history, the natural sugars in fruits, vegetables and other plants have served us well. They have provided essential fuel for our body’s most important processes. But now that sugars have been processed into more potent forms and added to so many foods and drinks — sodas, candies, breakfast cereals, salad dressings, breads — most of us are getting more sugar than our bodies were meant to handle. Over time, excess consumption of these added sugars can increase the risk of health problems…On average, people in the United States consume about 67 grams of added sugars per day. Nearly two-thirds of that amount comes from sugary drinks, sweet snacks, desserts and candy. But added sugars are also found in many packaged products like condiments, pasta sauces, sliced breads, granola and sweetened yogurts. You can check the “added sugars” line on nutrition labels to see if any are present. You may be surprised by what you find.”

David Henderson: “Free trade causes us to produce the goods and services in which our producers have a comparative advantage, which is really nothing more than a cost advantage, and to buy the goods and services for which producers in other countries have a comparative (or cost) advantage. Moreover, those who worry about a trade deficit need to realize that the counterpart is a capital surplus. The larger our trade deficit, the greater is the net amount of foreign capital coming into our country.”

WSJ: “I picked up a book called “Why Buddhism Is True” by the journalist Robert Wright. I’m not sure why it suddenly caught my attention. It had been in our house for years. But there it was, collecting dust. I read it in a weekend. Wright weaves his own story of embracing Vipassana—widely known as “insight” meditation—with a survey of how reams of research in neurobiology and psychology all confirm what the Buddha and his disciples have been saying for centuries: Our torments, like our hopes, are illusions. Anxiety can be controlled through concentration. There are paths to contentment within the mind.”

NYTimes: “A.I. software, though, changes all the accounting. By using every available frame of Hanks’s movie career to capture his facial movements and the look of his skin under countless lighting conditions, physical environments, camera angles and lenses, Metaphysic’s artists can generate a digital Tom Hanks mask with the click of a few keystrokes. And what we see onscreen is just one factor in A.I.’s ascendancy. “It’s the quality, and it’s the speed, and it’s the cost,” Ulbrich said. No six-month production lag, no fortune spent.”

NeoMartech: Shaping the Big Martech Era (Part 4)

2025 Martech Predictions

The SAS 2025 Martech predictions highlight a shift toward traditional AI applications, responsible marketing, a moderated hype around GenAI, and a renewed focus on campaign management. Predictions also include the adoption of composable CDPs, AI-driven co-creation with customers, GenAI-enhanced customer service, and skepticism around “zero copy data” for seamless insights. Excerpts: “Not long ago, brands were eager to move away from the talk of campaigns to focus on journeys. While marketing campaigns have evolved into customer journeys, the segmentation and audience-creation capabilities of traditional campaign management have been grossly overlooked. As many organizations make the move to a cloud data strategy, campaign management will be back in vogue in 2025…Composability, the latest customer data platform (CDP) trend, will radically reshape the CDP market in 2025. Composability is the ability to access and use data where it lives, such as in a cloud data warehouse, rather than requiring it be moved into a CDP database. Functionally, composability helps unbundle some nonfoundational capabilities of a CDP, such as data activation, and enables marketers to only use the capabilities they need. Forrester calls the composable data warehouse a top differentiator for a single customer view, while Gartner says data sharing with cloud data warehouses will be disruptive.”

Among Forrester’s predictions: “GenAI will push one in four CMOs to codify their marketing operations function. The hyped-up potential of genAI in creative development and marketing insights will be a catalyst in 2025 to force marketing ops’ evolution beyond a stopgap to mask poor planning, resource misalignment, and inefficient processes. To get there, marketing teams will need to proactively identify stakeholders, define process interlocks, formalize responsibilities, and measure success across six B2C marketing ops disciplines. In 2024, marketers focused on genAI as an efficiency play, but in 2025, mature marketing ops functions will add marketing effectiveness to their genAI playbook…Investment to unify data for the loyalty and marketing tech stacks will triple. Factors including economic pressure to increase efficiency and consumers’ demand for continuity across customer experiences will converge in 2025 — pushing loyalty and martech together. While eliminating redundant channel execution across marketing and loyalty is low-hanging fruit, the most impactful and pragmatic opportunity lies with synchronizing data. The data gap between marketing and loyalty practices is wide today: Eight in 10 US B2C marketing executives utilize separate data assets for loyalty and martech. 2025 calls for a unified data strategy that delivers consistent and expanded data access.”

For me, the defining trend for 2025 will be the importance of an anti-acquisition mindset in marketers leading to the rise of NeoMartechs.

Thinks 1443

WSJ: ““The Inner Clock” [book] offers a rich history of what makes us tick, so to speak, paired with fascinating modern discoveries about how circadian rhythms influence our daily lives. We now understand that sleepless nights erode our health, leading to an increased risk of diabetes, obesity, heart disease, depression and more. We’ve also learned how to optimize our biological clocks: There are “right” times of day to take medicine, pass tests, exercise and eat. Our ancestors were not meant to be up and working after dark, and so we have digestive systems designed for lengthy downtime; even our gut flora rhythmically fluctuate during the day. Time-restricted eating has been called a life-giver, a means of enhancing longevity. Which is why a pizza at midnight is never a good idea.”

FT: “Almost 20 years ago, Intel made a decision that changed the course of computing history. Soon after Apple started putting Intel inside its Mac computers in 2005, Steve Jobs pitched the chipmaker’s then chief executive, Paul Otellini, on its top-secret plan to break into the mobile phone business. Intel turned down Jobs — and what would become the iPhone. One result of Intel’s decision was to hand UK-based tech group Arm an effective monopoly on the chip designs that now power virtually every mobile phone, a $500bn market that is more than twice the size of the PC industry. Thanks to its uniquely energy efficient technology, Arm is now using that same platform to outpace Intel again in the era of artificial intelligence, as Big Tech companies spend billions of dollars to build massive new power-guzzling data centres.”

The Generalist: “The worst thing a VC can do is miss an outlier business. You should beat yourself up for these mistakes, dissect them from every angle, and conduct a post-mortem. Why did you pass on Uber at the Series A? What was the rationale that talked you out of Square at the seed? Spend more time on these misses than on the deals you backed that never took off…Stay close to startups you wish you’d invested in. If you prove your worth, they may invite you to invest ahead of the next round or in a future financing. Even if that doesn’t transpire, you’ll have a relationship with a promising entrepreneur who may deliver useful introductions or start another business.”

Scaling Through Chaos, a book by Martin Mignot of Index Ventures. “Living through high-growth is highly uncomfortable. And it should be. Founding a startup that scales rapidly is not a common path. If you choose to walk it, you’ll be breathing rarefied air. We haven’t written Scaling Through Chaos to make the journey easy for you. No one could do that. But what we can do is systematically break down twenty years’ worth of data and insights into how the world’s fastest growing and most successful startups have scaled the mountain, taking the kernel of a crazy idea and turning it into a highly impactful company…What this book gives you is a set of best practices and shortcuts about how to hire people, how to stretch them, how to organize them—all of which helps you achieve scale faster. It relieves you of the mental burden of reinventing the wheel of people management, so you can play with the stuff that demands creativity—things like product, growth and technology. It frees you up to innovate where it matters.”

WSJ: “A nuclear power plant creates energy by splitting atoms, a process that creates heat that then generates steam to generate electricity. Nuclear power plants typically use uranium-based fuel for this process. The process initially requires an external source of neutrons to split uranium atoms. Once the process starts, atoms start releasing heat, radiation and more neutrons as they get split—a chain reaction. Small modular reactors do the same thing but are produced in a factory. They are typically under 350 MW. Some can be as small as 1 to 10 MW…SMRs come with the potential to solve some of nuclear energy’s biggest headaches: Cost, safety and time—at least, in theory. That is why tech companies’ backing is so crucial. The industry needs to test and learn before it can prove out the benefits.”

NeoMartech: Shaping the Big Martech Era (Part 3)

Recent Writings

The 7½ Futures of Martech Companies: “The good news about martech is that it will never go away. Every business needs to sell what it makes, and marketing is the core (along with innovation). Marketing has, of course, changed through the decades, and continues to evolve. Digital marketing is now central to every business strategy. Adtech has grown to a $700 billion industry as it helps businesses acquire (and reacquire) customers. Even though martech has grown and is probably about a tenth of the size of adtech, I believe the future will be a more equitable balance in spending. This will mean a big shift in budgets and exponential growth in martech spending. An array of tech breakthroughs will make this happen. One of the biggest opportunities in software is therefore the engineering of a $350 billion shift from AdWaste (wrong acquisition and reacquisition). Martech should always have been the primary focus of digital marketing. But in the past two decades, with the ease of spending on adtech, it has been reduced to a bit player. The obsession with growth has fuelled spending on acquisition rather than retention. This has resulted in a massive transfer of value from brands (the actual sellers) to the intermediaries (ad sellers, cloud sellers, and marketplaces). Brands have lost control of data, relationships and their customers. They have even become dependent on the adtech platforms to reconnect with their own customers because they are unable to get across to them. Fortunately, help is at hand. The change has to be driven by martech companies.”

I listed the future possibilities that I saw for B2C-focused martech companies:

  1. Specialised Point Solutions
  2. Full Stack (including CPaaS and Channels)
  3. Progency
  4. Email 2.0 (creating and controlling a channel)
  5. MarCo (martech consolidator)
  6. Digital Twins
  7. Mirror Worlds
  8. B2C Attention Platforms (the ½ idea)

Martech 3: Can the Price be Zero?: “[T]hink of Martech 3.0 (M3) – to distinguish from Martech 1.0 (point solutions) and Martech 2.0 (full stack). Both M1 and M2 are typically priced by martech vendors on MAUs (monthly active users). [Can] a new disruptive approach make for zero-priced martech with alternate revenue streams for SaaS sellers?… There are seven interlocking trends that can facilitate the rise of M3 – free B2C martech software with alternative monetisation models, which creates a win-win for both the buyer (marketing) and seller (martech vendor): focus on retention, shrinking marketing teams, rise of omnichannel, Progency, AI-powered digital twins, ads everywhere, data privacy and regulation…To bring M3 to life will require a bold martech platform provider. There are two revenue streams such a provider can tap into: transaction fees and ads…Done right, this could be a win-win for all the three entities involved: the brand marketing team for whom martech would now be as easy as adtech, the customer who will see much less waste and more rewarding messages, and the M3 vendor, who gets an opportunity to step away from the red ocean, zero-sum game of stacks and MAU/MRR into a blue ocean of uncontested marketspace.”

Martech’s 10+1 Foundations in the AI Age: “Here are the 10+1 foundations for martech companies in the Age of AI: Unistack, Unichannel, Large Customer Model, Digital Twins, Co-Marketer, Mirror World, Generative Journeys, Bundled Kaizen Services, Profishare, B2C Business/Platform, Profits… These foundations collectively enable martech companies to leverage AI effectively, drive continuous improvement, and maintain a competitive edge in the evolving digital landscape. Most importantly, they help their business customers multi-maximise every customer LTV (lifetime value). By focusing on these core elements, both martech companies and B2C businesses can ensure they are well-equipped to meet the demands of the AI era and deliver superior customer experiences.”

Retention Re-engineering: Random to Recurring Revenues: “Innovations [like Agentic AI and the Co-Marketer, Digital Twins for Segments and Individuals, AI-Powered Large Customer Models, Epps (Email Apps) and ActionAds, and Bundled Kaizen Services] will help marketers anticipate customer intent with N=1 hyper-personalisation and influence actions through effective engagement strategies. They will address the challenge of attention recession by establishing direct communication hotlines with customers, thereby maximising customer LTV and reducing AdWaste. The combined effect of increasing LTV and decreasing CAC will significantly enhance profitability. Marketers will finally be able to achieve their dream of converting sporadic, random purchases into predictable, recurring revenues. Digital twins for every customer will guide marketers on emerging interests and demands, while the Co-Marketer will craft custom content for persuasion at scale. Agentic AI will enable a “department of one” to cater to a “segment of one,” making hyper-personalised marketing and constantly adapting “generative journeys” a reality. This next-generation martech, combined with innovative email strategies and advanced services, will equip marketers with the tools to drastically reduce AdWaste and embark on a Profipoly Quest – achieving exponential forever profitable growth. This will mark the most significant shift in marketing since the advent of adtech. Retention marketing – retention re-engineering – will finally claim its rightful place at the forefront of marketing strategies.”

The Coming Age of Anti-Acquisition: “A seismic shift is about to reshape the landscape of marketing. For the past two decades, the relentless pursuit of new customer acquisition has dominated every marketer’s agenda, fueling the rise of digital-first brands and disrupting countless industries. However, this era of unchecked expansion is drawing to a close, heralding the dawn of what I call the “Age of Anti-Acquisition.” While “retention” might seem the natural successor, the term “anti-acquisition” more accurately captures the impending paradigm shift. It represents a direct challenge to the extreme and often destructive focus on acquisition, reacquisition, and even re-reacquisition that has, like a metastasizing cancer, eroded the health and profitability of businesses across sectors.”

Thinks 1442

VentureBeat: “”Autonomous agents are one of the hottest topics and perhaps one of the most hyped topics in gen AI today,” Gartner distinguished VP analyst Arun Chandrasekaran said at the Gartner Symposium/Xpo…Four key trends are emerging around gen AI — autonomous agents chief among them.” Among other trends: multimodality, open-source AI, and edge AI.”

John Cochrane: “Every bit of economics says that the common market, the European Union, and the euro should have boosted European economies. Why should one, big, integrated market languish 30% or so behind the US, and now fall behind? The hard to quantify drag of over regulation is an obvious answer.” [via Arnold Kling]

McKinsey: “Leading a global organization in today’s fragmented world is difficult—perhaps more difficult than ever. Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the acceleration of geopolitical tensions, leadership teams have faced an increasing number of uncertainties and disruptions. These include the sudden emergence of upending technologies, such as generative AI; the energy transition; and a global workforce seeking more autonomy, empowerment, flexibility, and mobility. There is a compounding and interconnected effect across all these disruptions—and less and less time for leaders to react to them. We estimate that ten years ago, CEOs and top teams typically focused on four or five critical issues at any one point in time; today, the number is double that.”

Tufan Erginbilgiç: “There’s a big difference between restructuring and transformation. Transformation, to my mind, is more ambitious. It’s taking the company from point A to point B, where getting to point B opens more potential for the company.”

NYTimes: “Starbucks is also a victim of its own success. It pioneered the customized coffee drink, allowing customers to add an extra espresso shot, two pumps of sugar-free vanilla syrup and matcha cream cold foam to top it off. A simple cup of coffee became an expression of individualism or caloric abandon. But those eight-ingredient drinks can take a couple of minutes to make. And with more than a third of transactions in recent quarters coming from mobile app orders, that can lead to long waits for customers who order in person. “The traditional Starbucks experience is being greeted by name, having a friendly conversation with the barista and given a drink that tastes good,” said Ari Bray, a barista…“When there is a 15-minute wait and nobody can talk to you because they’re so slammed, that’s not a good experience for anyone.””

NeoMartech: Shaping the Big Martech Era (Part 2)

Past and Present

Let’s look at the current state of martech and retention, as written by Claude and ChatGPT (and lightly edited by me).

The evolution of B2C martech mirrors the transformation of digital consumer relationships, progressing from basic mass communication tools to sophisticated platforms powering personalised experiences. What began as simple email marketing in the 1990s with pioneers like ExactTarget (acquired by Salesforce), Neolane (acquired by Adobe), and Responsys (acquired by Oracle) has evolved into a complex ecosystem orchestrating omnichannel customer experiences.

The early 2000s marked the first major shift as integrated marketing platforms emerged. Adobe, Salesforce, and Oracle’s marketing clouds promised a unified view of customer interactions across channels. These platforms introduced marketing automation, enabling rules-based customer journeys and behaviour-triggered communications. The business model crystallised around software-as-a-service (SaaS), with pricing based on list size, message volume, or monthly active users (MAUs).

The 2010s ushered in the age of personalisation and automation. Companies like Netcore, Braze, and many others enabled real-time, tailored messaging across email, SMS, and in-app notifications. Companies like Optimizely pioneered A/B testing, while recommendation engines promised Amazon-like personalisation for all. However, these solutions often delivered incremental improvements rather than transformative results, excelling at campaigns but struggling with real-time, individual-level personalisation.

Several persistent limitations have challenged the industry. Data fragmentation across tools and channels remains a significant hurdle, compounded by privacy regulations like GDPR and CCPA. The reliance on acquisition-driven strategies has led to substantial “AdWaste” as digital advertising costs soar and consumer ad fatigue increases. Many platforms over-emphasised acquisition without addressing long-term customer retention, creating a costly cycle of continuous customer churn.

Notable successes in the B2C martech landscape include the consistent ROI of email marketing, efficiency gains from marketing automation, mobile push notifications driving app engagement, and improved conversion rates through basic personalisation.

However, significant misses plague the industry. The promise of “360-degree customer views” remains largely unfulfilled, with complex implementations often failing to deliver value. Marketing clouds struggle with poor integration between acquired tools, while cross-channel coordination remains elusive. The industry has been slow to adopt the full power of AI-driven predictive capabilities, creating a gap that modern tools are only beginning to address.

Today’s B2C martech faces unprecedented challenges: stringent privacy regulations, the deprecation of third-party cookies, and skyrocketing customer acquisition costs. Traditional approaches focused on segments and campaigns show their age, while business models based on MAUs or message volume increasingly misalign with customer success metrics.

The next generation of B2C martech must deliver true 1:1 personalisation at scale, powered by AI. Rather than just managing campaigns and channels, platforms must help brands build lasting, profitable customer relationships. This transformation demands a departure from conventional business models, embracing a comprehensive framework that delivers solutions for sustainable success.

Thinks 1441

Vinod Khosla: “Imagine a world that operates by public transport in which your ride arrives the moment you need it. You travel directly to your destination — no stops, no transfers — at a fraction of the cost and environmental impact of both individual cars and high-speed trains. Best of all, this kind of system doesn’t require us to tear up our streets. It fits within the margins of our existing infrastructure, and would only require marginal incremental infrastructure investment. Self-driving, on-demand robotaxi pods could change the way we move around cities and dramatically increase throughput of our congested streets. We should be building fleets of these lightweight, low-cost electric vehicles. Known as personal rapid transit systems (PRT), they can travel along narrow, dedicated pathways closed off to all other forms of transport and passengers can get on and off them anywhere they choose.”

Rama Bijapurkar: “There are strong consumer-based reasons to explain the poor urban sales in mid-market categories. The Reserve Bank of India consumer confidence survey, which is (surprisingly) a large urban towns survey, shows deteriorating consumer perceptions compared to last year on almost all counts. Households in the third- and fourth-highest income quintiles have very little surplus income, and in high inflation times this is wiped out. They buy less, sadly for some companies, or “down trade”, happily for others, whose sales equity analysts may not be tracking. The Indian consumer market is getting more complex.  Old paradigms and dominant logics need to be replaced with deeper, more nuanced understanding of cause and effect.”

: “For almost the entire time humans spent dispersing throughout the world’s major landmasses, they roamed as nomadic hunter-gatherers. Before the advent of sedentism and the closely-related phenomenon of agriculture, hunter-gatherers lived everywhere man can be found today, from its more resource-poor, desolate locales to the places we might have once considered Edenic. Where man could go, man went, and he subsisted much like man anywhere else. Then, suddenly, in a five to seven thousand year burst, no fewer than seven locations independently developed agriculture. These locations did not adopt agriculture from one another, were not engaged in long-distance trade with each other, and weren’t even related by conquest; there was no cultural exchange that explains how all of these places took to the plough and the field simultaneously, and yet they did…Man started farming because the motions of Jupiter pulled the Earth into a stellar situation that made proto-farming desirable and, from there, it was a hop and a skip to real farming. Farmers established states to make life possible when nature threatened their ability to farm. After the Chinese state unified, it tended to stay unified because of the constant threat of steppe nomads invasions. Finally, the unity of China was its downfall because premodern state capacity was limited in ways that disposed its dynasties to massive population shocks that critically impaired the process of knowledge accumulation.”

Vernon Smith: “Government supplies money in proportion to failure, the private sector supplies money in proportion to success.” [via CafeHayek]

Ben Thompson: “A world of content abundance is going to benefit the biggest content Aggregator first and foremost. Of course Meta needs to execute on all of these vectors, but that is where they also benefit from being founder-led, particularly given the fact that founder seems more determined and locked in than ever. It’s also going to cost a lot of money, both in terms of training and inference. The inference part is inescapable: Meta may have a materially higher cost of revenue in the long run. The training part, however, has some intriguing possibilities. Specifically, Meta’s AI opportunities are so large and so central to the company’s future, that there is no question that Zuckerberg will spend whatever is necessary to keep pushing Llama forward. Other companies, however, with less obvious use cases, or more dependency on third-party development that may take longer than expected to generate real revenue, may at some point start to question their infrastructure spend, and wonder if it might make more sense to simply license Llama (this is where the “ish” part of “openish” looms large). It’s definitely plausible that Meta ends up being subsidized for building the models that give the company so much upside. Regardless, it’s good to be back on the Meta bull train, no matter what tomorrow’s earnings say about last quarter or next year. Stratechery from the beginning has been focused on the implications of abundance and the companies able to navigate it on behalf of massive user bases — the Aggregators. AI takes abundance to infinity, and Meta is the purest play of all.”

NeoMartech: Shaping the Big Martech Era (Part 1)

Foundations

In my previous essay, I had discussed the need to create Big Martech to combat the $350 billion AdWaste from wrong acquisition and reacquisition that is hurting brands. I asked ChatGPT and Claude to summarise the key points:

  1. The Big Martech Revolution: The marketing landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation from Big Adtech to Big Martech, marking a shift from acquisition-obsessed strategies to retention-focused approaches. With nearly $350 billion wasted annually on ineffective advertising, this revolution promises to redirect resources toward building sustainable customer relationships through advanced AI and personalisation.
  2. Anti-Acquisition and Profipolies: The emergence of “Anti-Acquisition” strategies represents a deliberate pivot from traditional marketing models. By focusing on retention and minimising acquisition costs, companies can build “profipolies” – profit monopolies achieved through superior customer understanding and engagement. The winning formula combines low Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) with high Lifetime Value (LTV), powered by AI-driven personalisation.
  3. Technology and Implementation Framework: Big Martech solves three critical challenges: the “Not for Me” problem of insufficient customer data, the “No Hotline” issue of attention recession, and the “Not by Product alone” limitation of current platforms. Through AI, machine learning, and unified marketing ecosystems, it enables hyper-personalised customer experiences across all touchpoints.
  4. Transformation of Marketing Leadership: This revolution elevates marketing from a cost centre to a profit driver, transforming CMOs into potential Chief Profit Officers. Companies must choose between leading this change or risking obsolescence, much like how IBM successfully adapted to multiple tech revolutions while others like Kodak failed to evolve.
  5. Future Impact and Opportunity: The Big Martech era promises to reshape customer engagement through direct, AI-driven personalisation at scale. By reclaiming billions lost to AdWaste, companies can establish deeper customer relationships and sustainable growth. This transformation presents opportunities for both incumbents and disruptors to redefine the marketing technology landscape, similar to how past tech revolutions created new industry leaders.

As I wrote: “This shift marks the dawn of Big Martech, an era where companies can establish direct, personalised connections with customers through AI-driven hyper-personalisation at scale. In this new world, the ability to engage with each customer on an individual level, or N=1, will become the gold standard. But the crucial question remains: who will emerge as the architects of this Big Martech revolution? The stakes could not be higher. Those who successfully lead this transformation stand to reclaim a staggering $350 billion currently lost to AdWaste, while simultaneously taking control of the future of marketing. The builders of Big Martech will not only redefine how businesses create and capture value, but they will also lay the groundwork for a new frontier in digital engagement and customer relationships.”

The stage is set for the emergence of “NeoMartech” companies – revolutionary players who will transcend traditional martech’s segments, campaigns, and journeys to engineer a new paradigm in marketing technology. These pioneers, whether incumbents or disruptors, will master the delicate balance of maximising LTV while minimising CAC, creating an unstoppable profits flywheel that ultimately leads to a “profipoly” (profits monopoly) for innovative brands.

The NeoMartech revolution will redirect the billions lost to AdWaste, fundamentally re-engineering retention, and dramatically reducing the need for constant new customer acquisition. By enhancing Earned Growth, these companies will unlock unprecedented value – not just for individual brands, but for the entire martech and consumer ecosystem. Winning, however, demands a departure from conventional business models that rely solely on Monthly Active User (MAU) pricing. Instead, NeoMartechs must evolve into true strategic partners for brands, embracing a comprehensive 4S framework: Strategy, Software (stack), Services, and profit Sharing. This integrated approach delivers the crucial fifth S: Solutions for sustainable success.

The question that beckons: How can NeoMartechs architect and accelerate the Big Martech era?