Thinks 556

Richard M. Ebeling writes about the beginning of the Mont Pelerin Society in 1947. “Seventy-five years ago, there occurred an important event in the post–World War II revival of free-market liberal ideas. Over the first ten days of April 1947, 39 people from Europe and the United States met in a hotel in Switzerland at a mountain place known as Mont Pelerin. They came together to discuss the future of economic, social, and political liberty in the face of the rise and growing influence of collectivist ideas, especially in the various forms of government central planning. It was less than two years since the war had ended in Europe, leaving tens of millions of dead, wounded, and starving. Many parts of the continent were in ruins, including some of central Europe’s most important and architecturally beautiful cities. Germany and Austria were under the four-power occupation of the United States, Great Britain, France, and the Soviet Union. The Cold War was already dividing Europe, with communist governments being imposed in eastern Europe wherever Stalin’s Soviet armies had advanced in the conflict to defeat Nazi Germany.” I am a member of MPS.

Bloomberg on Kalshi, which has set up a platform for prediction markets: “The size of these markets had been limited because regulators worried that Wall Street-scale trading could create incentives for investors to meddle with reality. If the stakes are high enough, it’s not difficult to imagine traders leaning on congressional staffers to stall the passage of a bill, or someone in Kanye West’s orbit betting on whether the rapper’s latest album will drop this week…Over time, [founders] Lopes Lara and Mansour found themselves hypothesizing about how such a marketplace might work in practice. What they settled on was called an “event contract,” an instrument tied to a question with a binary outcome, such as “Will inflation hit 5% by the end of the month?” The contract would eventually settle at either $1 (if the event happened) or zero (if not), but before that its price would fluctuate, reflecting how likely the market considered the occurrence.”

Advice from Andy Kessler: “Take risks—but smart ones. You want a reputation as someone who is bold. Ambitious. Forward thinking. Trustworthy. And don’t forget appreciative, thanking those who help along the way. Plus, while most people complain about every little thing wrong in this world, it’s better to be known as untriggerable instead of as a melting snowflake, the opposite of college. Oh, don’t get me wrong, you’re going to be offended every day, guaranteed. Something or someone is going to annoy you. Keep it to yourself and then use it as motivation, as fuel to drive toward your goals. If you’re ever satisfied, you’re done for.”

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Rajesh Jain

An Entrepreneur based in Mumbai, India.